Wednesday Discussion Thread

[Underdog88]

Gonna try something different & have a discussion thread seperate from my plays. My line of thinking is that everyone may be more inclined to pop in & give thoughts if it's not in a thread with my plays in it. I know this isn't the most popular of sports to most, but IMO it is the easiest sport to make money on, so why not do our best? For those that do follow the sport, it is shaping up to be possibly one of the best postseasons I can remember. My hope is that as the playoffs come we can get a solid daily discussion going. IMO it works extremely well in the NFL, so why not here?

Plenty of guys here having good seasons in the NBA, & with totally different styles. It could only help to bounce plays off each other. I'm gonna call you out now LoL

That means you JML with all your faves- I consider you & FF as the two best cappers regarding faves, & if anything you could always talk me off a dog lol. I know you aren't an avid fan, but you seem to be able to sort through the faves & find value.

Biff with your discipline & solid thoughts on games. I would like to hear some more thoughts on games, even if you aren't playing them. Something tells me you have much more to contribute to this site, though you have undoubtedly been a great addition


Ming- Very solid season, would like to see what you look at when capping games.....


Those were the first 3 that came to mind, but Stif always has good thoughts to games, BB also has an eye for the anti-pub plays. I hope we can get some replies in here, & today is the perfect time. Tons of games on tap, & I'm around until around 2, so I will try & give thoughts on as many games as I can. Hell maybe we can even disagree!

Back in a bit with some thoughts.....

[Underdog88]

I tried to post all the lines in here, but it came out as a long undecipherable post. It would be awesome if someone with better computer skills could post todays lines!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

For those that do follow the sport, it is shaping up to be possibly one of the best postseasons I can remember.

My problem with the NBA is the playoffs are so predictable every year it seems. The Final is ALWAYS a top regular season team. Best team ALWAYS wins. BORING. In the NHL there are low seeds always pulling upsets and making a run deep in the Stanely Cup playoffs. In MLB you have wildcard teams making runs. In the NFL it is up in the air at the start of the playoffs every year. But in the NBA, it's always the same suspects at the end, and there is essentially no chance a 4-8 seed will make it to the finals. I don't have any stats to back this up, but I know it is one reason I barely tune into the NBA playoffs to watch another boring turn around jumper by Tim Duncan.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

My problem with the NBA is the playoffs are so predictable every year it seems. The Final is ALWAYS a top regular season team. Best team ALWAYS wins.

While it has been somewhat predictable in recent years, there are always upsets in early rounds...ie Warriors last season. This season IMO is different... do you think the Spurs are in the finals again this season?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

While it has been somewhat predictable in recent years, there are always upsets in early rounds...ie Warriors last season. This season IMO is different... do you think the Spurs are in the finals again this season?

Yeah the Warriors did it...but that was the only time in recent memory...and they went knowhere quickly right after that Dallas win.

I really think the Spurs make it again this year, yeah. Coming together at the right time, and in the NBA...playoff experience counts. SAS vs BOS, imo. Although, like you say...hopefully it will be exciting, and I will be cheering for new faces like Orlando & New Orleans. I would really like to see the Hornets make it actually...

[Underdog88]

BTW JML, was wondering your thoughts on the Hawks, Wizards, Philly as home faves. They are the favorites that jumped off the page at me.



Random thoughts

This is the time of the season where you must take into account motivation & positioning for playoffs. Many top tier teams will be coasting, as they have nothing to gain from winning & everything to lose. I have already posted my thoughts about the Pistons giving the bench much more playing time, & that has proved to be the case. Stuckey played the entire 4th & ot last game. Expect plenty more of the same. The Celtics may be another team that will be on autopilot for the remainder of the season, though IMO tonight they may be out for blood.



Motivated teams

Toronto/Philly are battling for the 6 spot. This one to me is huge, as the 7 seed will have to face the Pistons, & will pretty much guarantee a 1st round exit. Today we see how motivated the raptors will be.

The 8 spot is currently held by the Hawks, with NJ .5 games back, Pacers 1.5 back & the Bulls 2 games back. Indy/NJ today is a huge game, as is Bulls/Sixers. IMO the Pacers tank, but who knows, they're all pretty crap teams. NJ has a little advantage IMO because of their veterans... pulling for the Hawks though.

The West is so closely played that a good team will end up on the outside looking in. I think that team coiuld very well be the Warriors. Hell it could be the Mavericks too as they all have tough games ahead of them. Looking at the remaining games it appears as if the 8 seed will come down to how many road games these teams win. Dallas has 7 road games left with the toughest ones @Den, GS, LAL, Phx, Port. The Warriors have 6 of 12 games left on the road but damn look at who they have to play!

@Den, @SAS, @Dal, @MeM, @NO, @Phx. One gimme game & 5 wars.

[Underdog88]

Celtics/Suns


The C's are off a home loss to the Sixers & have lost 2 in a row (lost @NO). On a side note, they have revenge Friday @ home to the Hornets. They also have revenge vs the Suns tonight, having lost 85-77 @Phx feb22. That was a bad spot for the C's, as they were playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, off facing the Warriors & Denver. That will tire out the best of teams. In that game, Boston shot 38% 23% from 3 pt land. The Suns outrebounded the Celtics 50-32. I highly doubt that happens @ Boston tonight. I have 2 things that are keeping me from playing the C's-the pts. One is that I question how motivated they are being pretty much locked into the 1 seed. The other is that the Suns are 22-5 vs the East. Then again, the Celtics aren't your average east team, & I'm sure they don't want to lose 3 straight road games & go into the playoffs having lost both meetings to the Suns. IMO the same applies to Friday vs NOH..... Lean on the C's & the under- 207 seems a bit high for a C's home game, I may go the Suns team under route.


Hawks/Bucks- Mil is flat out terrible on the road (they've lost 6 straight road games & 12 of their last 13 on the road.) The Hawks are off a loss @ Chi & every game counts for them. Big time revenge game on Friday for them vs the Bulls.... The home team has won all 3 meetings with the Bucks winning both home meetings by 7 & 9 points. the Hawks won by 16 at home.... from a matchup standpoint I think the Bucks have the advantage inside with Bogut, & Atlanta has the advantage everywhere in the backcourt. IMO this total is a bit high too, as as just 1 of the Hawks last 4 home games have gone over 191 pts. The Bucks were on a big over run on the road, but only totaled 151 @ Miami last road game. Normally after a long over run is broken, another under follows. Lean Hawks-pts & under.

[Underdog88]

Detroit/Tor- Raptors are off a home loss & 2 days rest. Detroit is off a 110-105 home win vs the Suns. Toronto badly needs this win to stop the bleeding... they are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Again I have to question how motivated the Stones will be here- looks as if Rip will be back, but I would expect a ton of bench play tonight. They had motivation vs the Suns Monday as they had revenge & were trying to break the losing streak. Tonight IMO Tor has much, much more motivation. They also have double revenge, as they have lost both times to the Pistons, by 14 & 16 pts. They are also just 2-10 last 12 meetings vs the Pistons. Tough call as overall Detroit has Tor outmatched & their bench could very well get the road win, but due to motivation I have a lean to the Dinos from up north....under looks pretty solid as well, going to look a bit deeper into that one.

[Underdog88]

OK played C's-5 & just checked back to see the line moved to -7. Don't know what happened, but I can't find anything regarding an injury...

[wsox08]

This look okay? It would have taken too long to get all the team totals in here too.

Wed 3/26 501 Detroit Pistons +1½ -107 +110 Over 185 -110
7:05PM (EST) 502 Toronto Raptors -1½ -103 -120 Under 185 +100


Wed 3/26 503 Milwaukee Bucks +8 -105 +300 Over 208½ -108
7:05PM (EST) 504 Atlanta Hawks -8 -105 -330 Under 208½ -102


Wed 3/26 505 Miami Heat +7½ -101 +290 Over 188½ -105
7:35PM (EST) 506 New York Knicks -7½ -109 -320 Under 188½ -105

Wed 3/26 507 Chicago Bulls +7½ -108 +295 Over 200½ -105
7:05PM (EST) 508 Philadelphia 76ers -7½ -102 -325 Under 200½ -105

Wed 3/26 509 New Orleans Hornets +2½ -102 +128 Over 194 -105
7:05PM (EST) 510 Cleveland Cavaliers -2½ -108 -138 Under 194 -105

Wed 3/26 511 Phoenix Suns +7 -102 +258 Over 209 -107
7:05PM (EST) 512 Boston Celtics -7 -108 -285 Under 209 -103


Wed 3/26 513 Indiana Pacers +5½ -105 +205 Over 214 -105
7:35PM (EST) 514 New Jersey Nets -5½ -105 -225 Under 214 -105


Wed 3/26 515 Minnesota Timberwolves +11½ -107 +650 Over 190½ -102
8:35PM (EST) 516 Houston Rockets -11½ -103 -825 Under 190½ -108


Wed 3/26 517 Los Angeles Clippers +15½ +100 +2200 Over 183½ -105
8:35PM (EST) 518 San Antonio Spurs -15½ -110 -3000 Under 183½ -105

Wed 3/26 519 Memphis Grizzlies +10 -105 +475 Over 217 -108
10:05PM (EST) 520 Sacramento Kings -10 -105 -560 Under 217 -102

Wed 3/26 521 Washington Wizards -7 -105 -285 Over 203 -107
10:05PM (EST) 522 Seattle Supersonics +7 -105 +258 Under 203 -103

Wed 3/26 523 Charlotte Bobcats +14 -105 +1400 Over 211½ -103
10:35PM (EST) 524 Los Angeles Lakers -14 -105 -1800 Under 211½ -107

[Underdog88]

Perfect wsox- thanks! I tryed pasting from 5D, but it came out all in a straight line...



thoughts on Houston/Wolves- Houston has taken both games this season. They won @ home 113-82 & held Jefferson to 6 pts 6 rebs in 30 minutes. They won @ M inny 92-86 & Jefferson scored 33 pts. Now Houston is without Yao & they are being asked to cover the 11.5 points? To me it depend on jefferson. He is the sole advantage Minny has, & will likely have to score 35+ for them to cover. Houston needs every win they can get, & a home game vs Minny is a pretty nice opportunity. The Wolves have lost by 11 @ Indy & Portland, so it's totally possible for Houston to win by 15+. IMO Houston wins comfortably but I'm not in the business of laying 11.5 points.

[Underdog88]

I think the Hornets are live tonight. The Cavs have revenge, & it's tough going against LBJ at home. However, Ben Wallace will sit, which leaves Joe Smith to try & stop West. Mismatch. Z & Chandler pretty much even each other out, & Gibson is still out. Was contemplating the Hornets team total over 96 as well. Here is how the Hornets performed on the 2ndh of b2b road games this season....


W 100-88 @ny

W 111-107 @ Mil

W 118-113 @ Phx

W 98-89 @ Lac

W 100-82 @ Mem

W 84-82 @ NJ

L 93-90 @ Port.


A bunch of cupcake teams but still impressive to me. Now here's the Cavs home results vs playoff bound West coast teams


lost 105-96 vs. GS

won 94-90 vs LaL

won 99-94 vs Utah

lost 93-85 vs Hou

lost 112-105 vs Sas

lost 113-83 vs Den

lost 110-108 vs Phx.


2-6 not too pretty. I'm taking the points.....

[EdwardHaney]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

OK played C's-5 & just checked back to see the line moved to -7. Don't know what happened, but I can't find anything regarding an injury...

You just have that much power that the line moves shortly after you post, ha.


On a serious note, I love the play, I got it at -5.5 last night. I'm also unaware of any injuries. Where I get my info it's showing 67% on the Suns, so there must have been some serious sharp action on Boston's side.

[BoilerBacker]

IMO, The Celtics are a strong play up to -7. I just got them at -6.5. They STUNK at Phx and are off a lackluster game vs. Philly. I also like Sac with revenge from a loss last week at Mem. Two faves when I normally am a dog guy.... Mem losing on road by DD is a common occurance...

GL

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

OK played C's-5 & just checked back to see the line moved to -7. Don't know what happened, but I can't find anything regarding an injury...

I think some big cashola hit the Cs.