***UDoggie's Playoffs part 2***

[Underdog88]

I missed out on a great 2ndh opportunity in Houston, but finally a solid day so I can't complain...glad the Rockets won, something tells me this series isn't over just yet. Curious to see a line. Just a great game to finish off the day in SA. I must say the Spurs did very well to finish the Suns in 5, IMO it was very important for them not to get into a grueling series. They are no spring chickens, but man are they impressive come playoff time. 3-0 +5.5 units for today, more of an in depth look tomorrow morning.

[Underdog88]

Hawks/C's u92.5 2ndh

1.5 units

[Underdog88]

0-1 yesterday, side & total tonight...


Pistons-5

Detroit/Sixers u178

3 units each



I think the Pistons win this one, so I'm laying the chalk. I suggest to those who think Philly wins is to ML that bitch- the spread has come into play in just 10% of the playoff games. I think that even if Philly wins, this will be far from a shootout. Both teams are solid defensively, & I expect a total in the 160's....

[bigmoe]

Pistons off to a good start. Let's get 'em in, UDoggie. I will work on the under for you.

[Underdog88]

Thanks bigmoe! Snuck that under in despite the Stones shooting lights out for the game. I think the Pistons/Magic series could be a good one, especially at the level Howard has been playing. 2-0 +6 units

[bigmoe]

Sweet double winner, UDoggie. Congrats.


Magic guards do not match up well with Piston guards. And the Pistons have given the Magic fits. Hopefully they will fare better this time. Howard was a monster in the Raptor series. And the Magic will not be able to get away with their 3 pointers not going down against Detroit, like they were able to get away with against Toronto. 3 pointers are the Magics game. They need to be hitting them at a good percentage to win against Detroit.

[Underdog88]

I definitely agree that Orlando will need to hit 3's to win this series, but I also think Detroit will have trouble if they don't shoot well too. 86 @ home, 75 @ Philly in their two losses this round- you can bet Orlando won't lose if Detroit can only put up 85 or so. I just think Howard is even better than last season, & playing at a very high level. While the Pistons definitely have the better backcourt, I don't necessarily believe that they don't match up well. These 2 teams met 4x this season, splitting 2 each....

[SRN1985]

MAGIC

[bigmoe]

I do not disagree with you UDoggie. But in one of those Orlando wins, Hamilton not Billups played. And Wallace usually does as good a hob as anyone in guarding Howard. The Magic will have to overcome some very bad history against Detroit. What concerns me most is their Munchkin point guard, Nelson. Everytime they play, the Detroit guards totally abuse him with their size and are constantly posting him up.

And ironically, Turkgolu, who just won the NBA's Most Improved Player award, had a terrible series against Toronto. That can not happen here if Orlando hopes to win the series. And believe me, living here in Central Florida and being a fan since the teams inception, I certainly hope they do win. It is just that it will be an uphill battle. And like I said above, Detroit has dominated the magic in the playoffs because of the guard matchups. I would love to see Orlando improve both guard positions in the off season.

But in the meantime, GO MAGIC!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Speaking of guard play....besides Howard, Jameer Nelson was probably Orlando's best player against Toronto, and around these parts, the consensus is that HE won the series for Orlando. Like Detroit, the Raps were supposed to have the superior back-court as well, but Jameer was a monster in all 4 wins. Howard was supposed to get 20/15....but Ford/Calderon were supposed to school Nelson. The opposite happened. You could be right though....maybe the superior size of the Detroit guards could be the problem. Sounds about right. But...it still looks like the little man still gets no respect. He's playing the best ball of his career, had a great 1st round series, just signed a huge extension to his contract, and Magic fan, Moe wants to "improve" on him in the offseason. lol.

I'm hoping the Magic get dogged nicely...cause I'll be on 'em...

[bigmoe]

JML, Nelson did have a good series against Toronto. But he was matched up against a fellow Munchkin in Ford. And Ford played much better then he normally does. And I do not know anyone who would claim Ford is a good point guard. Living here in Central Florida, I see all the Magic games, some in person. And the consensus here is that Nelson sucks! What is this shit? If you are a fan of a team, you are not allowed to point out their deficiencies? One of the advantages of being very familiar with a team is knowing their personnel very well. And being able to use that knowledge to your handicapping advantage. And you must put aside team loyalty when cappong. I want "my team" to win a title and both of their guards are substandard. That will make it very difficult to achieve that goal. But I am going to be honest about their weaknesses. I have done my best when capping games involving "my teams" because I can do that.

The Detroit guards have dominated Nelson since he joined the Magic, and will do so again.
Does that mean the Magic can't win? Absolutely not. What it does mean is the Magic will have a hard time matching up with Billups and Hamilton...as they always have. And someone else will have to slid over to help Nelson out, leaving some other Detroit player open. That is what happens to other teams when they have to help defend Howard.

I have not made up my mind on the game yet but will do so tomorrow.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by bigmoe

If you are a fan of a team, you are not allowed to point out their deficiencies? One of the advantages of being very familiar with a team is knowing their personnel very well. And being able to use that knowledge to your handicapping advantage. And you must put aside team loyalty when capping.

Agreed, & I appreciate your thoughts

[Underdog88]

Friday


Wizards-1-105 1stq

Jazz-2-115 1stq

2 units each



Looking for maximum effort by all 3 home teams tonight to start off the games. I was near playing the Hawks for the 1stq @ +150, but I pussed out. I think the C's win this game, & since the winner has covered 90% of the time in the playoffs, it's either lay the chalk or lay off. Hoping for the C's to be down at the half so I can maybe get a nice line. IMO the C's need to win this one on the road to show they can still win on the road. I have the Cavs for the series, so I don't want to make a play on the outcome there. I do think that the Wizards will jump out to an early lead. & the game will be close. Like the over in this game as well, but I am going to wait until halftime to try & grab a better line. I have the Rockets for the series as well, which is toast IMO. Looks like the Rockets are getting love here, but I think the Jazz are the right side. They're off a 26 pt road loss where they shot 36%, 2-9 from 3 & had 18 turnovers! As much as I would like to see the Rockets win, I think the Jazz win huge tonight. Considering an over play there as well, though 180 seems as if it's begging you to play on the over.






Saturday


Spurs+140

Pistons-6-120

3 units each



4.5 pt teaser

Spurs+7.5
Pistons-1.5

2 units

[Underdog88]

Wiz 1stq


Hawks+9-108/ +380

2 units/ half unit ml


Hawks+150 1stq

1 unit



Changed my mind... I can't pass up 9 with a team that hasn't won a road playoff game yet. Looking into a couple player props for the late one....

[Underdog88]

Really should have just played this from the beginning...


Cavs/Wiz o95.5 2ndh

2 units