2nd Round Series & Future prices Discussion

[Underdog88]

Pistons-310
Magic+255

Spurs-140
Hornets+120

Lakers-350
Jazz+290


I think the Pistons take game 1, Magic have been resting too long & I think it will be tough for them to come into Detroit & pull out the win. I do think this could be a closer series than a -310 series line would indicate. I may play on Orlando to win before game 2 should they lose game 1. Howard is capable of taking over a game, & though the Pistons have the edge in defense & experience, the Magic coasted through the 1st round despite Hedo not playing too well. It will take a monumentous performance by Howard & the gang, but I want +375 or so. I think I can get that if they lose game 1.

This line lost all value IMO, liked the Spurs at -115, but now at -140, I see no value in it. Can they lose to the Hornets? Absolutely. But I don't wan't to bet on it. IMO the Spurs had by far the most convincing 1st round of any playoff team. Don't even give me that Lakers **** either. They are great no doubt but sweeping the Nuggets the way they played, I can't give them as much credit as I can the Spurs. Almost everyone lined up to play on the Suns, but the Spurs controlled every game but 1. Manu can only improve this series, but if Parker plays as well as he has the pg matchup will be very entertaining to watch. I said it earlier in the year, CP3 is the best pg in the game rather easily. However Duncan is perhaps the most potent weapon in the playoffs this decade. I don't think Chandler & co. will be able to hang inside vs the Spurs, thought West has been playing great. Strange that the series price would be -140, yet they are dogged +140 for tonight. I already have a play on the Spurs game 1 ML, & should they lose I'll take a look at the series price.


Not so sure about the Lakers price. I don't expect Utah to win that series, but I don't like the Lakers -350 either. Should the Celtics beat the hawks game 7, they will be absurd faves to the Cavs & I may make a small play on Cleveland. Why be confident in a team that couldn't beat the Hawks on the road? Especially against the King? More thoughts to follow....

[Underdog88]

Odds to win the Championship

Celtics+230

Lakers+280

Spurs+480

Pistons+655

Hornets+1000

Jazz+1450

Cavaliers+2200

Magic+2800

Hawks- don't waste your money



Funny before the series the Celtics were +185 or so to win, now they are +230. I may have to play 1 unit on it, as it's likely the best number we'll see on them for the rest of the season. I'm glad I played on the Spurs to win it all at +785 as it's now +480. Still way too much basketball left, but it looks like value. Lakers+280? IMO we see a Spurs/Lakers Western final.

[Daws1089]

i was thinking of hawks ml +1000 in game 7. Is it really impossible? I know they haven't won on the road yet this series and might be without marvin williams, but this seems so high for a game 7. I will probably end up taking the +14 and losing again since i've played them twice in boston already and got smothered.

[Underdog88]

I'm thinking it's a blowout Daws. As bad as the C's have played on the road, the Hawks have played worse in Boston. I'm not a fan of laying that kind of chalk, but I think they win/cover & it goes under. Boston is in serious trouble the next round though if they can't win on the road. LeBron has shown in the past two playoff seasons that he can steal one on the road. Call me crazy, but I think (assuming the C's win), that the winner of that series will go to the finals. @ 5Dimes the series prices have shifted again. Boston is now up to +240, highest I have seen. The Spurs are up to +655 & the Hornets dropped 300 from +1000 to +700! The Cavs are +2200, & I havent played a future for the East, hmmm. Also I'm waiting for the Spurs series price after they fell apart 2ndh last night. Duncan played the worst game I think I have ever seen him play. Doesn't happen all that often. This looks like it'll be a long series, I'm hoping the Spurs are +140 to win the series before game 2...

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

i was thinking of hawks ml +1000 in game 7. Is it really impossible?

I will probably end up taking the +14 and losing again since i've played them twice in boston already and got smothered.

Honestly Daws I think the ML is a much better play than taking the pts here. I'm trying to apply the same kind of thinking as in football, the spread doesn't matter. It came into play in 10% of the games so far in the playoffs, & it didn't come into play in either game last night. If the Hawks cover, it's because they just pulled off a great upset. If they lose, it'll likely be by a wide margin. From a perception standpoint, 14 looks like a huge number to cover, & many will make the Hawks play stating "too many points". Is it? What line is vegas supposed to set it at? Boston won their home games by 23, 19 & 25 pts. 6 of the last 8 playoff games this season have been decided by more than 17 points. The two that didn't? A 3 pt win for the Hawks, & a 1 pt win for the Wizards, both as underdogs. Has to be set that high.

One thing I do think the Hawks have going for them is all the pressure is on the Celtics now to close this out. Win or lose the hawks will be credited for giving the C's a run for their money. If the C's lose... all hell's gonna break loose.

[cavorca12]

Udogg, thought you might like this. From 2000-current, including regular season and playoffs.....
Home dogs that cover a spread of 0 to +7 win SU 80% of the time (1028 of 1288 games) and road dogs are 77% (1757 of 2288 games).
Home dogs of 10+ that cover win SU just 31% (12 of 39 games) and road dogs of 10+ that cover win SU just 23% (148 of 645 games).