Cavorca NBA Playoffs -- Round 2

[cavorca12]

5/3:

New Orleans ML -145 ... 2 Units


Fortunate enough to get invited by a buddy to a suite for game 1, so I'm freakin pumped. JP seems to love the SA ML and spread is set at a good number IMO, so I'll just take the NO ML. Won't be around for the half, obviously, so I wanted to say now that NO has come back from large half time deficits for SU W's several times before (incl game 1 v Dal). It's just something I'd be watching and a 2H bet I'd have to seriously consider if it were the case. Anyway, I'm heading out. GL tonight everyone!


NBA Playoffs Round 1: 29-31-0 (+0.50 Units)

NBA Regular Season: 127-131-4 (-3.65 Units)

[cavorca12]

5/4:

Utah +8 (-105) ... 1.5 Unit


Don't have time to comment on some things from the NO game, but I hope some people got the NO 2H play.

[cavorca12]

Been typing my thoughts about NO and kept getting interrupted. Almost finished, but just posting this before the early game starts.

Detroit -6.5 (-105) ... 1.5 Unit

[cavorca12]

Ok, so here is what I have from the NO game. As I said, I was at game 1 and for the first time in I can't remember how long, I watched from the baseline view. I thought it was great and that I got a much better idea of spacing and what/how teams run their sets as opposed to the typical sideline view I get at the games and from tv.

--SA tried to run the pick and roll with Parker and Duncan at the top of the key numerous times, just like what they did vs Pho that Pho couldn't stop and resulted in Parker scoring at will or kicking to Duncan. NO shut that down. Parker couldn't penetrate into the lane at all or get the ball to Duncan. It looked like NO collapsed down to help with a defender off one of SA's perimeter shooters, forcing Parker to kick it to the 3rd option. SA shot 30+ 3P in game 1, they shot 17, 11, 15, 11, and 6 in the 5 games vs Pho. SA was unable to penetrate, relied too heavily on outside shots, and then got dominated on the glass.
--SA gets well deserved credit for playing great basketball, often called boring, but IMO NO plays great basketball too and negates that adv SA has over many other teams. Difference is, NO is younger and more athletic, and that allows them some wiggle that could compensate for SA's adv in experience at some point in the series since.
--NO roster has a lot of components, beyond the obvious CP3 and West, that I really like.
A solid center in Chandler who plays some D and rebounds extremely well.
Scorer off the bench in Pargo.
G/F off the bench in Wells whose toughness and inside game is a perfect complement to MoPete and Peja.
Hustle guy off the bench that has fabulous athleticism in rook Julian Wright who has really come on the end of this season. He's a guy I love that makes plays all over the court - O and D - and really makes a difference with his hustle.
--Popovich is a great coach, but IMO Scott isn't far behind him at all. I'm not sure SA and Pop can just "make some strategic adjustments" to correct things, because Scott has really impressed me several times with his strategy and by countering opponents strategic moves, esp coming out after half. Which brings me to....
--CP3 doesn't typically press things in the 1H, and really does a fabulous job getting his team involved in the game while hardly turning the ball over at all. In the 2H, SA did a decent job not allowing him to completely take over and dominate the game with his scoring, but that didn't work as CP3 didn’t have to score it since the NO offense was just running on all cylinders. And this gets at...
--IMO SA didn't lay down in game 1, they just got beat in nearly every aspect of the game. I see lots of people going to the crutch of SA, in a way, having taken games off in the past, and that they'll be fine since they're so experienced. The other thing I haven’t heard mentioned is that after both of SA’s recent NBA titles, they’ve lost in the conf semis each following season. Given that history, that they’re even older now, and that NO is the young team IMO very prepared to bust through, and I think the series price is about right and that NO should be favored in this series.
--As far as NO’s weaknesses, I just don’t think SA has the personnel to expose them. The LAL expose a big one in that we don’t have a lockdown perimeter defender like Bowen has been for SA. A star like Kobe is a huge issue for anyone, but IMO more so for NO. Manu is great, but he isn’t the type of player who dominates the ball and can score at will IMO like other star backcourt players. Utah IMO also matches up well vs NO, as Deron and Boozer creates a great matchup with CP3 and West and Okur can take Chandler away from the paint. They have the length and good wing defenders to deal with our wings as well. IMO NO wins this series, but as of now, I lean toward thinking they fall to the winner of the LAL/Utah series. I’m tempted by the Utah future plays right now too since I think they can beat LAL (and subsequently NO), but that’s a whole other post.....


Wrote this in multiple sittings, so I'm not sure how it flows. Anyway, hope this is somewhat helpful. Not certain if I'm playing anything on the game tonight or not, but I'd lean NO and the under. GL!

[RahStahMan]

GL tonite c!

[homedawg]

do ya have a shorter version? ...

GL Cav

[cavorca12]

Thanks HD and Rah.

San Antonio at New Orleans Under 183 ... 1.5 Unit

New Orleans -3 ... 0.75 Unit

[cavorca12]

Originally Posted by cavorca12

Detroit -6.5 (-105) ... 1.5 Unit

[cavorca12]

New Orleans 2H -3 ... 0.75 Unit

Lots of the same going on for SA as game 1, IMO. 3 of 14 from 3P, so they're not getting in the lane yet again. Big diff is SA out rebounding NO. But NO has missed some close shots that were very makable, and also probably contributed to SA's reb adv. NO once again didn't overextend key guys while keeping themselves in position in the 1H to make a 2H move and can prove themselves with a W since a vet team like SA knows it's big. Anyway, should be a good one. I've been promoting the NO 2H play a couple times, so I hope I get it right this time...

[cavorca12]

3-1, +1.29 night

RD2: 4-2, +1.17
PTD: 32-34, +1.67

[cavorca12]

5/6:

Boston -9.5 ... 2 Units

My thinking is the same as Udogg's.


As for NO/SA..... As big a NO fan and supporter as I am, I'm considering playing SA in game 3. I've used the Dal series as a sort of guide since NO doesn't have a playoff history to use as a gauge. Just like the Dal series, NO was spectacular the 1st 2 at home and didn't look vulnerable at all, but Dal "figured things out" and won the must win game 3 at home. Of the 6 mu's b/t NO/SA, the MOV's were 9, 12, 19, and the other 3 20+. Given that, how well the home & favs have fared this playoffs, and all the typical SA reasoning we all know, it's making it a hard decision for me.

[cavorca12]

5/7:

Detroit 2H -1 ... 1 Unit

Been busy and didn't catch hardly any of the 1H, just tailing HD and Rah. Typing up some stuff on Utah/LAL, but I'm on Utah side and ML and am looking into the under. GL

[cavorca12]

5/7:

Utah +7 (-105) ... 2.5 Units

Utah ML +265 ... 1.25 Unit


Future:

Utah to Win Western Conference +1000 ... 0.5 Unit



Been running around doing crap and packing for a trip tomorrow, so I haven't had much time the last couple days. Anyway, I like Utah a lot this game, and for a couple reasons, I think they can play with LAL and at least have a shot at this series. Given that and that LAL haven't had a tough grind game or gotten beat around at all, I like the spot for Utah before heading back home. As for the future, I said in another post that IMO Utah beats SA or NO if they win this, so taking the +1000 instead of +500 for this series. Was thinking about the champ future at +2500, but it went off before I had a chance. Anyway, GL all.

[homedawg]

but every1 is hot on the lakers, since kb won the mvp.

GL Cav

[cavorca12]

Well, the 1H sure sucked ass... Might as well throw some down on the 2H as a treat before enduring airports and plane flights all day tomorrow.....

Utah at LAL 2H Over 107 ... 1.25 Unit

Utah 2H -2 (+105) ... 1 Unit