New Member Plays - NBA SUNDAY

[brandvann]

Hey guys, I'm new here. I was reading up on some posts trying to get some further information about the Indiana line. I noticed that about 70% of the public is on the bulls and the line opened at +2.5 for Indiana and has dropped to 1.5. Seems like a trap line to me. I read that the Bulls have lost 16 of the 17 matchups or something close to that in Indiana. I think the oddsmakers expect Indiana to bring the same stingy defense they brought against the shorthanded heat the other night. I'm gonna hit Indiana hard here. I always catch lines like this and fail to pull the trigger. I thought the -2 in favor of miami against indiana was fishy but didn't bet it, and sure enough it was a blow out in favor of indiana.

I'm also going to take Detroit -3 first half against Milwaukee. I know rasheed wallace is out, but milwaukee has some key players out as well. I was looking thru detroits last 10 games, and even when they lose they tend to be up by at least 3 at half. I think Detroit had a 3 point or more lead in 7 of the last 10, maybe it was more. I also think Detroit, albeit tired, will play hard to avoid a 3 game losing streak and try to hold off the surging cavs.

I'm going to make a small play on phoenix and buy a point so taking them at -5.5. Phoenix has been all but reliable the last few games and who knows which team will show up tonight. I think they should be rested and hopefully marion steps up tonight as he has been lack luster lately i believe due to a foot injury.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -7.5 against Seattle. Seattle is without Ray Allen and really don't stand a chance. I expect a blow out, as the spurs will prevent any run and gun offense the supersonics may try to implement.

[Meestermike]

Originally Posted by brandvann

Hey guys, I'm new here. I was reading up on some posts trying to get some further information about the Indiana line. I noticed that about 70% of the public is on the bulls and the line opened at +2.5 for Indiana and has dropped to 1.5. Seems like a trap line to me. I read that the Bulls have lost 16 of the 17 matchups or something close to that in Indiana. I think the oddsmakers expect Indiana to bring the same stingy defense they brought against the shorthanded heat the other night. I'm gonna hit Indiana hard here. I always catch lines like this and fail to pull the trigger. I thought the -2 in favor of miami against indiana was fishy but didn't bet it, and sure enough it was a blow out in favor of indiana.

I'm also going to take Detroit -3 first half against Milwaukee. I know rasheed wallace is out, but milwaukee has some key players out as well. I was looking thru detroits last 10 games, and even when they lose they tend to be up by at least 3 at half. I think Detroit had a 3 point or more lead in 7 of the last 10, maybe it was more. I also think Detroit, albeit tired, will play hard to avoid a 3 game winning streak and try to hold off the surging cavs.

I'm going to make a small play on phoenix and buy a point so taking them at -5.5. Phoenix has been all but reliable the last few games and who knows which team will show up tonight. I think they should be rested and hopefully marion steps up tonight as he has been lack luster lately i believe due to a foot injury.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -7.5 against Seattle. Seattle is without Ray Allen and really don't stand a chance. I expect a blow out, as the spurs will prevent any run and gun offense the supersonics may try to implement.

Nice writeups and analysis.

to the PREDICTEM .COM forums . Glad you joined us. How did you find us and tell us a bit about yourself. Looking forward to your input.

GL with your plays.

[wsox08]

nice write-up and

[brandvann]

Hey guys, I was a member at ultimatecapper and heard everyone moved over here. I'm 20 years old and a student at SDSU. I'm here to learn, gamble, and have fun.

[rjp]

Originally Posted by brandvann

I'm here to learn

Don't ever lay 7.5 points with a team on the road.

Originally Posted by brandvann

I'm here to gamble.

Well ****, why didn't you say so! Lay 20 points on the road if you want!

Originally Posted by brandvann

I'm here to have fun.

[brandvann]

lol, thanks rjp. I will take that advice in the future. Hopefully it pans out for me tonight.

[rjp]

Yeah, it's not a 100% or anything, but away teams win by 8 or more points exactly 50% of the time. As such, even if the away team figures to win 100% of the time, they'll only do so by more than 7.5 points exactly 50% of the time, so you've already put yourself in a negative expectation.

[brandvann]

thank you for that fact. i will keep that in mind from now on.

[rjp]

Glad they won by 40 for ya.

[BUNK MORELAND]

Originally Posted by brandvann

Hey guys, I was a member at ultimatecapper and heard everyone moved over here. I'm 20 years old and a student at SDSU. I'm here to learn, gamble, and have fun.

WELCOME AZTEC ...