***Udoggie's NBA Finals***

[Underdog88]

Regular season 709-699-11 +117.20 units

Playoffs 87-80-3 +32.79 units



Updated record includes future losses, with just one still kickin'



Celtics win it all +240

2 units




I'm leaving the futures alone for now. Lakers-175 is pretty steep IMO considering they don't have home court. I simply don't believe the Lakers will win all three home games, so I think in order for them to win, they'll have to steal one of the first two. The fact that this number is so high worries me, as I would have made the series a pick em. Lakers have the edge in coaching as well as the best player on the court. The Celtics have home court & the better defense. Should be great to watch. I do think the home team takes game 1 so...




Celtics-1.5-105 1sth

Celtics-138 full game

Lakers/Celtics o191.5-107

2 units each





The total opened at 195, yet has dropped down to 191.5? I have to play it... the Lakers will most likely look to push the ball, & IMO a 45% shooting performance by both teams should produce a number over the total. I think this will be a closely played game- throwing out a 99-97 final C's win.

[Daws1089]

bol in the finals udog.

[Half-Man Half-Amazin]

good luck Udoggie with ya on the celtics game 1, not sure about the total... both teams are off for a bit and not many teams have come to the boston and shoot better than 45% and the lakers 2 losses to the celtics they shot 37.5, and 42% respectively, so im pickiing the under. Good luck with the finals

[bookiekilla]

[Underdog88]

horrid 2nd quarter, was so close to playing 1stq instead. Total will be a nailbiter IMO....



Lakers team u47+103

Celtics-1.5 3rdq

Lakers/C's u48-105 3rd quarter

2 units each

[Underdog88]

Well thanks to the 4th quarter slowdown, the over misses & I lose some juice. Going out of town for the week today, & I'll be taking time off posting for the duration of it. I'll still be playing this series, but just sides. I have the next 3 games mapped out as follows...



Sunday


Celtics+1-102

3 units


Boston wins the series 4-2 +560

Celtics team u95+100

Lakers team u95.5-105

half unit each





Game 3

-if Celtics win game 2, Lakers ats up to 7.5 for 3 units


-if series is tied 1-1, no play for game 3



Game 4

Celtics ML for a 2 unit wager




This is how I will wager these games. Game 4 is a ml play on the C's regardless of what the series is at. I will be back Sunday to evaluate how things have progressed. Basically this is how I expect things to go.....


C's win tonight

Lakers win tuesday

C's win Thursday


If the series is split going into LA, I would no longer consider them a strong play, which is why I will lay off game 3 altogether should LA win tonight. This could potentially ruin my whole scenario. Boston will win a game in LA IMO....

As for tonight, I simply can't pass up on a line that has moved more on perception than reality. Everyone is playing up the Pierce injury- I think he'll be ok. Bottom line is a great home team is now dogged, when the line opened at -2. 3 point swing on perception, no other choice but a play on the C's. Smaller play on the team totals, but I think this will be a defensive game. Thinking the winner gets into the low 90's.


That's it for me until Sunday.... GLTA

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Game 4 is a ml play on the C's regardless of what the series is at. I will be back Sunday to evaluate how things have progressed. Basically this is how I expect things to go.....


C's win tonight

Lakers win tuesday

C's win Thursday

Back a little early from vacation. Things went as planned from a su standpoint. The game 3 line was -9.5 so it was a no play- thankfully the line wasn't set at 7.5, as I would have lost anyway. Game 4 was just perfect though, as I got +285 on the Celtics. Damn near fell out of the chair I was sitting on when I called to place that wager. Some pretty inflated lines in LA! Books throwing a 7 out there, when just 1 game was decided by more than 6. Not sure I can back the Celtics here though, I think Kobe will lead the Lakers to victory. Only question to me is whether I sit on the sidelines or lay the chalk. Also thinking the total is a bit high. Be back with some thoughts...

[Underdog88]

Lakers-7-104

4 units


Lakers team o99.5-105

Lakers-300

Lakers-4 1sth

2 units each



Lakers-12.5+200

Lakers/Celtics o197.5+190

1 unit each



Seriously considering a play on the Lakers ML. I can grab -300 right now @ 5D, & don't expect any major moves honestly. I am pretty confident they get the su win (obviously given the larger play ats). Should they lose, my future @ +240 cashes so it's not that large of a risk- laying 6 to win 2 units & losing would be a 1.2 unit loss including the future play. In a perfect world, the Lakers win & cover tonight, then the C's finish them in 6, & I cash the half unit future on Bos in 6 +560....

[stillmatic]

hey UD, hope all is well.

What are your thoughts on 1st quarter bet tonight of Lakers -2?

I'm thinking Lakers come out strong. I still think -7 is good for the game, but just wondering your thoughts on 1Q.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by stillmatic

hey UD, hope all is well.

What are your thoughts on 1st quarter bet tonight of Lakers -2?

Normally when I look into playing a 1st quarter, I expect a team to come out gangbusters. While I'm not sure if LA comes out firing, I would think Lakers or no play. IMO playing them 1sth may be the better option for a couple reasons.


The Lakers traditionally come out 1stq with Kobe looking to get his teammates involved & into a rythym. If Boston comes out fired up it could be tight. The Lakers jumped ahead 35-14 1stq last game, something I think the C's will be focused on preventing tonight. Not saying it couldn't happen again, but I am wary of a 1 pt lead or tie going into the 2ndq. The Lakers have fared pretty well in the 2ndq, outscoring the C's 30-23 game 1 (after trailing 1stq by 2) & 23-17 game 3 (after a 20-20 1stq). In game 4, they were outscored 26-23 2ndq, but were still up dd at the end of the 1sth. For these reasons I would lean harder to the 1sth -4.5. JMO, hope ya cash stillmatic

[RahStahMan]

hope you had a good vaca, UD, GL bro!

[stillmatic]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Normally when I look into playing a 1st quarter, I expect a team to come out gangbusters. While I'm not sure if LA comes out firing, I would think Lakers or no play. IMO playing them 1sth may be the better option for a couple reasons.


The Lakers traditionally come out 1stq with Kobe looking to get his teammates involved & into a rythym. If Boston comes out fired up it could be tight. The Lakers jumped ahead 35-14 1stq last game, something I think the C's will be focused on preventing tonight. Not saying it couldn't happen again, but I am wary of a 1 pt lead or tie going into the 2ndq. The Lakers have fared pretty well in the 2ndq, outscoring the C's 30-23 game 1 (after trailing 1stq by 2) & 23-17 game 3 (after a 20-20 1stq). In game 4, they were outscored 26-23 2ndq, but were still up dd at the end of the 1sth. For these reasons I would lean harder to the 1sth -4.5. JMO, hope ya cash stillmatic

Great insight, thanks as always UD! Hope you cash tonight as well.

How are you taking Tim Russert's death? I know he was a Buffalo guy like yourself. Honestly, I didn't think his death would hit me as hard as it did. He was truly a great man and really one of a kind. This upcoming election would have been his time to shine, such a shame to see him go at such an early age.

[homedawg]

GL UD

[Underdog88]

Thanks Rah, Stillmatic & HD



Terrible 2nd quarter to blow the 1sth play- hope you ignored my reasoning stillmatic



Still think the Lakers pull away late though.....


Lakers team o24.5 4thq

1 unit

[homedawg]

IMO, the books are beggin' for celt $$$ right now.