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Quote:
3-2 straight +.75. 0-2 dog ml -1 unit.
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MIA/NYK over- Dantoni's system in place, NY will be moving at a much faster pace. IMO the Heat & Wade will be happy to play uptempo as well. Hoping they can do what they have done in the preseason, put up points. Lean to the home team here, IMO the Heat still get a bit too much respect from the oddsmakers. I don't see whhy I should believe the Heat will all of a sudden just be good again. Could take some time, especially with how young they are....
Hornets- this will be a popular one I'm sure, but I can't pass up on a top 3 team laying a relatively short number facing a team with missing key players. Maggette will likely play, but practiced for the first time in 5 days yesterday & may see limited action. No Monta Ellis, plus CJ Watson is also missing time. That means they will have a thin backcourt for quite some time, Steve Jackson may be playing pg. Regardless of who it is, they will be dismantled by Paul tonight IMO. Easier to be comfortable about this team as a fave because they return everyone plus a not so nice addition of Posey to add a little muscle to the bench. IMO that will come in handy when Peja struggles vs someone defensively (ie. possibly Maggete). GS really can't take advantage tonight with their frenetic pace, because the Hornets can run too. IMO NO has the advantage @pg sg pf & C tonight. Really high on this team, but the lines won't be as easy this year, that's for sure. They travel to Phx tomorrow, than face the Cavs at home (should be a good one). After that I'm thinking they won't see another -5 line for quite some time.... Sixers- Wasn't too hot on laying 5 with Philly just yet, but I do think it's the right side. May straight play it as well. Toronto looked horrible in the preseason, & if you ask me Oneal is soft. Not too sure the Raptors got much better with that addition. Toronto has been trash on the road, as they went 4-16 su their last 20 road games (6-14 ats). Looking for a pumped up home crowd &with Brand in town, & a Sixers team responding well to it. Looking into a possible 1stq play as well. Leans Rockets in some way- 12 is a ton of chalk to lay on opening day, but remember how dominant they were with a healthy lineup (yao). Bottom line it's a staunch defensive team playing a no defense team, line has to be set high. My sole concern is that Battier is a no go. He is a solid defender & can knock down those open looks when the double comes on Yao. Artest does seem sold on playing hard for the Rockets, & if he puts up he could be just as dangerous.... Maybe a 1sth play, but I expect them to be leading by DD from 8 minutes on. I think they could be a very solid play tomorrow @ Dallas though, line should be wrong there because of public perception.... NJ/Wash o192.5- IMO the line is a bit low due to the Wizard's lack of offense in the preseason (they only put up over 89 pts 1 time). However, they did play some defensive slow tempo teams, which the Nets are not. IMO NJ will push the ball a bit more this season. A bit concerned about the thin bench for the Nets with Najera likely out & no Trenton Hassel. Still think this one gets near 200.
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Rockets-6.5 1sth
Grizzlies team u45 1sth Bucks/OKC o99.5 1sth NJ/Wizards o94 1sth Suns+116 2 units each Added leans from above. OKC home opener, I would expect a nice home crowd to get them pumped up. Bucks don't play defense, IMO Jefferson should have a good game over Green. Redd vs Durant should yield some offensive production, thinking this one gets over 100. Suns is another situation where they have revenge from the playoffs. That and the Spurs don't care to start the season.....
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Thanks Baller, FF!
Clips/Lakers 1stq over looks good... leaning on it Knicks-2 Jazz-6.5-130 1 to win 2.33 units Heat fade paired with a great home team. Deron out, but so is Melo, Nuggs usually don't travel well.
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