***Tuesday Discussion***

[Underdog88]

I am the streakiest NBA capper alive & currently ice cold. Gonna start posting thoughts on these games in an attempt to turn things around.



Utah/Philly- Philly is off to a rough start, seemingly having trouble adjusting to the addition of Brand. Doesn't help that Miller is off to a slow start as well. They have lost 2 in a row (@MIa & @Orl) after a blowout home win over the Kings. Brand was doubled well @ Orl, & nodoby could hit their shots, as Philly as a team shot under 38%. The Jazz are 5-1, and 1-1 on the road- beating the Clips & losing to the Knicks. They are on the front end of b2b road games as they play @Wash tomorrow.... Currently the line is @-3, & has dropped from -4.5 as there are rumours that Deron will make his season debut tonight. The Jazz will be without Okur (their 2ndh leading scorer) as he attends to family matters. This is trouble for the Jazz, as Collins is also unavailable to play center. That leaves Utah with Fesenko & Koufos, who have played a combined 5 minutes. IMO this affects the Jazz in a couple ways. First Dalembert should have an advantage on the glass. Secondly, I would have expected the Jazz to look to double Brand until the Sixers can drain some open looks, but with them being thin @ C, IMO they could have trouble doing so. Brand should be able to keep Boozer/Millsap busy, & IMO Young has an advantage over Miles. Would Deron really be playi8ng today if Okur wasn't out? Not too sure, but I would expect him to have limited minutes in his first start. Leaning hard on the home team to get the win & get the team back on track. I also have a lean on the Jazz team under, simply because their second leading scorer is out. Boozer is still a force in the paint, but without Okur I think the Sixers have the advantage in the paint.....

[Underdog88]

Hawks/Bulls- Situationally the Bulls have an edge here, as the Hawks have Boston on deck. Boston eliminated the Hawks from the playoffs last year, so there could be a bit of a lookahead factor going on tonight. This is the Hawks second game playing without Josh Smith, & they needed to otscore OKC 31-23 in the 4th to win last game. Flip Murray lead the charge with 9 pts in a 12-2 run that helped them escape with a win. I tend to doubt Flip will be able to repeat that performance. Without Josh, the Hawks will have to rely on Pachulia to start & give them 25 minutes, with Solomon Jones/Randolph morris off the bench to help. This is a huge blow to them defensively, & with Tyrus Thomas & the best C ever in Gooden playing, they could have trouble defending in the paint. OK kidding about Gooden, but anyone who was around last year will get that one lol....

The Hawks have historically played bad @ Chi, & are 1-3 last 4 ats there. In the last 4 Atlanta has lost by 9, 12, 25, & 8 points. The under is also 3-1 in those games, with the Hawks scoring over 86 points just 1 time. Big lean to the Bulls-4 (waited to long on the line) & also thinking about a smaller play on the Hawks team under.....

[Half-Man Half-Amazin]

Yeah i took it on the chin the other day as well but actually liking to OVER in the Jazz/PHI game:

Sixers are very well rested so more step, Sixers are avging 108 ppg at home

Jazz are shooting 50% or better in their last 3 games. Sure OKUR is huge but w/o OKUR Jazz would still be shooting over 45% which is very good

[Underdog88]

Nuggets @Bobcats


Here's an over that looks great to me.... total is low because of the Cats performances to start the season (Just 1 total over 187), but they haven't played an uptempo team like Denver yet, other than the Knicks. That total landed on 199 & was also an under ats. despite this, they are still capable of running with a fast paced team like Denver. Both meetings last season resulted in high scoring affairs.

@Char

Bobcats win 119-116

Wallace dropped 40 pts. Denver shot horribly from 3 pt land (4-21), 49% fg shooting.


@Denver

Nuggets win 117-101

Nuggets shoot 47%, Cats shoot 42% & still get over the century mark despite the dreaded 14 pt 4th quarter.


One thing that stuck out to me was the 1sth totals. 135 1sth points in the first meeting, followed by 124 in the second one. That's some pretty ridiculous scoring, & it negates the event of a 4thq slowdown (not that I think there will be one). I would definitely be hesitant to lay chalk on the Nuggets in a road game, they are 1-2 on the road with their sole win coming vs the Clippers in OT. Gun to my head I would grab the dog here. However, I think the over is a more solid play as after this game the Nuggets play @Cavs & @ Celtics. 1sth & game over

[TheBeholdah]

im backing charlotte 2nite, they were ice cold in their last game and i expect them to shoot a much higher percentage 2nite vs the nuggs defense, they won both their home games vs denve last year and they can surprise teams at home, like the hornets last week, no way could i back the nuggs on the road in this spot, first east coast game with the public pounding them for some reason

gl 2nite dog

[Underdog88]

Knicks/Spurs

here's an interesting game. Spurs without Parker now too, in addition to no Manu. Rookie pg George Hill will likely see much more playing time here. Ny has won 3 straight, and are on the front end of a b2b. 197 looks to be too big of a number with no Parker/Manu to push the tempo. So high in fact that to me it's fishy. The Knicks haven't been able to beat the Spurs in forever, but this could be their big chance. D'Antoni revenge angle as well as the Spurs perenially knocked the Suns out of the playoffs. I would expect him & NY to be up for this one. Lean Knicks+pts & game over.

[Larry]

FYI, for anyone intrested. No Stuckey for Detroit tonight. Prince will be playing point forward.

[Billy The Kid]

GL tonight UD! Looks like I will be on the Jazz/Philly under. Great points about the bigs being out for Utah. Sixers have had a few days off and I expect that they stressed defence in practice witch has been lack luster thus far. Utah hasn't really played a team I would consider a solid defensively and IMO the 76ers could prove to be the toughest task. Prob not a good spot for them with Okur out even with D. Williams back, as you stated his minutes will probably be limitted.


looking at Minnesota tonight....any thoughts?

[Drigger]

Great analysis UDog!

Lots of tough games on the board tonight.

Bobcats Over looks pretty decent to me.

Alt has to break eventally and your right with the late comeback... To bad I had -4.5 and they couldn't cover it! LOL!

Phili at home looks good to me as well. Utah is a pretty bad road them as well. Its like night and day for them.

LAL -6, I dunno, I guess I still feel the mavs are good.... but have yet to come close to proving it... 6 point dogs at home??!?! I'd rather take those points.

With no one to help out Duncan, I like the point as well for the knicks.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Drigger

LAL -6, I dunno, I guess I still feel the mavs are good.... but have yet to come close to proving it... 6 point dogs at home??!?! I'd rather take those points.

Though I am a fan of playing dogs, I wouldn't touch the Mavs with a 10 ft pole tonight. Just looking at the spread, I can see why you would be tempted to grab the points with a home dog for a good team, but I simply cannot fade the Lakers right now. They have yet to show a sign of weakness. Also Howard is a ? for tonight. Lean Lakers & under....

[Drigger]

I was just talking to my friend...

LOL! He says Lakers could easily blow them out! I guess I am still living in the past, I guess the Mavs suck this year.

But I think I might take the under instead.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Larry

FYI, for anyone intrested. No Stuckey for Detroit tonight. Prince will be playing point forward.

IMO this is a tough game ats wise. Evidently the Kings can still win @ Arco, but I'm not quite sold yet. They have 3 straight wins, but were vs GS, Minny & Memphis so I don't know how much stock you can put into Arco. Detroit off 2 straight losses, so I would expect them to come out & play some tough defense. Prince, Rip, & co all capable of playing some lock down defense.... Obvious thing I left off is K-mart is out. Don't like playing a side when a key player is out for the first game. Just seems as if the team rallies around each other the first game, then they really feel the effects the second game (like Josh Smith tonight hopefully). Playing the under here, lean to the Pistons.

[Underdog88]

Feel free to post some thought people

[Furashu]

GL UDog!
ive honestly just been picking against big spreads for first half.
Good teams usually close out in the 2nd half and their stars go nuts.
i havent been betting whole games cause ive never bet on the NBA so far.
The Underdogs have been hitting for me lately except saturday were most favorites covered...

I like the 76ers tonight because the center for UTah is out, Iggy is gonna get the ball more and the coach said theyre just getting used to using Elton.

I think a team that is really overrated right now is the spurs. I mean they havent covered any spread without difficulty this year. I think tey went into OT vs the bucks and almost lost even with parker scoring 55 lol.

I might be overrating the nuggets but with billips theyre 2-0 and he has already had 2 games to "practice " with them. This is his third vs a very young and sloppy bobcats.
I will probably go Nuggets First Half -1.5. No kenyan martin i believe..

GL today Underdog!

[Underdog88]

Wow Denver is throwing up a clunker, that over is toast barring a miracle.