***Monday NBA Thought/Plays*** - Sports Betting Forums

Underdog88 · #1 (**permalink**) 01-05-2009, 12:33 PM

Straight 173-164 +13.63 units

Dog MLs 14-29 +9.76 units

Nice positive week, but very pissed I didn't pull the trigger on some plays yesterday. Was set to throw a unit on the Raptors ml & missed tipoff. Oh well, hopefully I can KIR this week

Haven't played anything yet, but here are my thoughts (cliff notes version).....

Spurs/Heat- Heat took the last game @SA, but that was before the Spurs were rolling & were without half the team (Parker was hurt in this game). The Heat led by as many as 24 pts en route to a 99-83 win. So this is a revenge spot for the Spurs. SA is fresh off a buzzer beater win vs Philly on a b2b. 4 of the last 5 Spurs games have been decided by 3 pts or less. The only one that wasn't was an 11 pt win @ Memphis off a loss. Seems as if the Heat have been playing much better since the win vs the Lakers. Since then they have looked much better (with the exception of running into Orlando @ home). Going 6-2 last 8, they split su with the Cavs (covering both) and came from behind vs NJ in their last game. Not often I side against a premier team that has revenge, but how do I pass up a 12-5 home team catching pts? I think the Heat have a better than +3.5 chance to win, but there are some concerns. Duncan has the advantage in the paint. While Beasley finally broke through with a strong game off the bench, he hasn't been consistant (though he did have 20pts/ 8 rebs last time they faced each other). Would love to have Marion in the game, which would help defensively, but something tells me that he's out again. The Spurs are 9-4 on the road this season, with 4 road wins by 4 pts or less. For this reason I'm hoping to grab a Betus +4 special.... Lean Heat+ pts & line says it's going under.

Kings @ Nets- Revenge game for Kings as they lost 116-114 in ot @ home vs the Nets (then again who do the Kings not have revenge against lol). The Kings were without KMart & Garcia for that game, where the Kings poor ft shooting cost them the w. 69% ft shooting. There were 210 regulation pts, & neither team shot over 45% The Nets are a strange team when it comes to home/road splits, as they are 6-12 at home & 10-6 on the road. The Kings are just bad on the road 2-15.... Not sure how the Nets react after a very bad loss to the Heat- despit shooting under 40%, they were leading by as many as 16 points before the Heat pulled ahead. The Heat bench also outscored the Net's bench 43-9. Not too sure of how NJ reacts here, but I do think it's pretty suspect that they are only laying -3.5 to one of NBA's worst road teams. For the line alone I have to think this game is closely played, which has me leaning to the o199. The King's last 2 games have gone over following 2 unders.....

Raptors @ Bucks- Raptors in a pretty bad situational spot on the backend of a b2b & off a su win vs Orlando. Revenge for the Bucks having lost 91-87 last meeting. Totally wasn't expecting the Bucks to be favored by so many- was thinking -5.5-6.5 tops, so it looks as if vegas wants Raptors money to come in. Have to look into this one further, but leaning under at first glance. Tons of injury question marks.....

Underdog88 · #2 (**permalink**) 01-05-2009, 01:03 PM

Pacers@ Denver- Pacers at the beginning of a brutal road trip, where they have to face Denver, Suns, Lakers, Warriors & Utah. They have won 2 straight beating the Knicks by 2 on the road & the Kings @ home (win no cover). 5 of their last 6 games have gone over the total, & Denver has gone over the total quite a bit lately as well. Books making you pay for the total with a 222.5 right now, but the pace should be frenetic. IMO it comes down to whether or not Indy hits their jumpers. Denver's last 6 wins have been by 8 pts or less, so I would have a hard time making a case for the Nuggets here- especially off a big win vs the Hornets. Pretty strong leans to the Pacers and the over.....

Warriors @ Jazz- Jazz are studs at home (12-4). Believe it or not I'm leaning towards laying the chalk here. Utah is off a loss to the Lakers and have 2 days rest, so I think the Warriors could be in trouble. IMO this is a line that is set high for a reason. The Warriors have lost 7 of 8 road games vs teams with winnign records by 14 or more points. Concerned about the line movement down, but that may just be because of injuries. Jazz first game home following a road loss....

Lost @ Cavs------> won by 12 vs Suns

Lost @ Bucks------> won by 9 vs Dallas

Lost @ Rockets-----> won by 17 vs Suns

3-0 ats in this spot, so Jazz or nothing for me.....

Underdog88 · #3 (**permalink**) 01-05-2009, 02:45 PM

Jazz-10-105

Pacers/Nuggets o221-105

Spurs/Heat u181.5-105

3 units each

Heat+8-255
Bucks ML
Jazz 1sth ML

2 to win 2.24 units

Jazz ML
Bucks ML
Pacers/Nuggets o56 1stq

1.5 to win 2.48 units

Jazz 1sth at home have been nuts! Won by 8+ pts in last 5. GLTA