***K.I.R. Tuesday NBA***

[Underdog88]

Straight 179-165 +24.21 units

Dog MLs 14-29 +9.76 units







Gonna try and stick to posting thoughts, then plays (time permitting). Today I have the afternoon so here goes....


Celtics/Bobcats- The unbeatable Celtics are finally showing signs of mortality, dropping 4 of their last 10. The Bobcats are off a win vs the Bucks (quick revenge), and 2 days rested. These two met earlier in the season with the C's taking it 89-84. Last season the Bobcats played the Celtics very tough as well, and they just seem to match up well against them. The Cats are 7-11 su since the beginning of december, with 6 of the losses coming by 5 pts or less. They are playing much better team basketball, & I expect them to be up for this game. In fact, looking at their schedule, they seem to get up against most of the tougher playoff teams... Detroit blew them out, but they beat the Hornets and Jazz su. Off the Jazz win, they lost a close one to Orlando 90-85. Dallas beat them big, & so did the Cavs, but in the next meeting vs the Pistons they hung around for a 90-86 loss. Also forgot to mention Boston is on the front end of a b2b and are facing the Rockets at home tomorrow. After that it's back on the road to face off against the King. On a side note,I have had the Friday game vs the Cavs circled since opening week. Hopefully the C's beat the Rockets so the Cavs line is favorable, because I'm likely making a big wager there.

Charlotte may be catching too many points, but how do you play against the Celtics off a bad loss? The last two games they played off a loss were won 108-63 @Sac & 108-83 vs Washington, so that makes the Cats a tough play. Why did Boston have to lose to NY? Could have been a pretty solid fade spot for them, but they could very well come out pissed. One angle that has me thinking is that Boston just allowed 100 pts to the Knicks. These two normally play slower paced, defensive games, but that may be even more so with the C's off a loss. Have to consider Boston team under- look at their last 6 road games

88 pts @ Knicks

86 pts @ Port

108 pts @Sac

89 pts @GS

83 pts @LAL

88 pts @ATL.

Just like yesterday with the Heat/Spurs total, the line is indicating this will go under. Leans to the game under (maybe 1sth under too), small lean to the Cats.

[Underdog88]

crap. Computer sucking today, can a mod please delete the other thread?

[Underdog88]

Knicks@Thunder- Knicks are off a su win @ home vs the Celtics, which screams letdown to me. The Thunder lost @NY earlier in the season 116-106. In that game they were down by as much as 30 pts before coming back to take the lead (before choking it away). Revenge spot for Thunder, who are 3-0 ats last 3 games. In the Knicks 1st road game directly after a loss they are 1-3. Their last game on the road was a 93-89 win vs the Bobcats, both teams shooting around 42% 4 of the last 6 road games they played have gone over today's posted total. The Thunder have gone over the total 3 of their last 4. I think thie pace will be fast, but both teams will have to shoot 46%+ & not blow from behind the 3 pt line to push this over. IMO a bit inflated given the Thunder are off a 242 pt affair vs Denver, but still a small lean to the over. Bigger lean at the moment to the Thunder+ pts, maybe ML

[Underdog88]

Wizards@Magic- Magic are off a road loss @Toronto and back home where they are 14-3 su. The Wizards are of a su win @ home vs the Cavs, so this could be another letdown spot. Only problem I see about backing the Magic is that they are on the front end of a b2b, facing the Hawks tomorrow (with revenge). Possible lookahead spot, but I just don't see the Wizrds pulling off an upset on the road. Magic look to be safe to put into a ML parlay, but with the huge ml spread it's not even worth it. Thinking about playing them -7, thought first half ML in a parlay looks like the best option. Also leaning on the Magic team o102, but I am concerned that if they are ahead by a ton, they may slow it down 2ndh. Really there is no reason for them to want and expend any unnessecary energy late with the Hawks on deck. For this reason I am thinking about Magic team o51.5 1sth.

[Underdog88]

Clips@Dal- Clippers look to be without pretty much he whole team. Randolph, Kaman, Ricky Davis & Baron all look to be out. Fred Jones, who started Friday, was waived. They're off a 1 pt loss vs the Pistons & now have to go on the road to face Dal, SA & NO? Things just never seem to work out for the Clippers. To make matters worse, the Mavs are off a loss to the Grizzlies. Dallas has been surviving by sleepwalking throught the first half, then coming alive 2ndh. Dirk had a couple quotes about it, about how they can't expect to win if they keep doing that. Something tells me they come out firing early. IMO Dallas can pretty much name the score here, & there really is no lookahead involved (a day off before the Knicks at home), but of course I won't lay that kind of chalk. Another reason not to would be the Clipper's recent games played on the road. They were blown out of just 1 of the last 11 games, and it was off 2 ot games. Dallas has been prone to throw up a bad quarter, and in such a highly lined game all it takes is one quarter to blow the cover. 1stq wager could be an option, but that wouldn't be the best play by the numbers lately. That is, Dallas would have to change their habits. No idea what the Clippers lineup will look to do pace wise, & honestly I don't see how you could cap a total where there are so many lineup question marks....

[Underdog88]

Kings@Bulls- Kings on the backend of a b2b losing @NJ last night. They led pretty much the whole game, but were outscored by 5 in the first, and 10 in both the 3rd & 4thq. The Bulls are off a home loss to the Wolves with 2 days rest. The total set has me thinking the books expect a faster pace. Last time the Bulls had two days of rest following two straight losses, they beat the Wizards at home 117-110. The Kings have gone over the total in 3 of 5 games on the backend of b2b roadies. 121-103 loss @Orl, 122-117 loss @Indy, 105-96 win @NO. The other two situations were a 91-90 loss @Port (under team at home), & a 99-90 loss @ NO (the revenge game). I would lean Kings or nothing here side wise, but have a lean to the over.

[Underdog88]

Rockets@Philly- both teams underperforming lately.... Houston is off a tough loss @Atlanta, but are two days rested and had time to practice. Artest is a gametime decision & it looks as if TMac plays. They do have the Celtics on deck with revenge, but I have a hard time seeing this as a lookahead game. The Rockets have lost 4 straight road games, so it's highly unlikely they look past anyone... right now they just need a win. The Sixers are off a deflating 2 pt loss @SA home for the first time since the 1-5 road trip. Things don't get any easier quite yet for them as they are cback on the road tomorrow @Mil. IMO this line is a little shorter than perhaps it should be due to recent Rockets woes. Really though it's understandable to me given recent injuries that the Rockets would lose @ATL, Clev & NO. Toronto really was their sole bad loss. I think Houston needs this game more & is still the better team. Lean Houston & team over. Currently set at 96- they scored over this number 8 of their 10 road wins.

[Underdog88]

Rethinking Kings@Bulls, looks like a big time setup. Looks like it could be a similar situation as the Bucks line last night. Seems as if Vegas is taking a position on the Bulls, so no Kings play for me.

[Underdog88]

Wolves@Grizzlies- Memphis off a 20 pt win vs the Mavs @home, so another letdown spot for them. The Wolves are trying to get their 3rd straight win for the first time in over two years lol. They beat the Grizzlies at home in ot last meeting. In that game it was (and still is) very clear that the Wolves have the advantage in the paint. Jefferson had 38 pts 16 rebs vs Gasol (who had 12 pts 6 rebs & 6 fouls). Love also contributed with 17 pts 7 rebs. Love has come on strong in the last two, scoring 18/ 12 rebs in 21 minutes @ Chi, & 19 pts 8rebs in 26 minutes vs GS. The Wolves last 5 road games....

won 102-92 @Chi

lost 107-100 @Dal

won 120-107 @NY

lost 99-93 @SA

lost 118-103 @Sac


Leaning game over & doggie here.

[Billy The Kid]

lots of early work today UD! Was looking at the Magic but may tail and just play the first half as I agree with your analysis and the look ahead spot. Wizards dominated the boards against Cleveland and that wont happen tonight against Howard and Co. Really like that Magic team total over 51 for the first half but unfortunatly can't play half team totals on my site. GL with the play if you end up on it. Also like the Bulls/Kings over

[Vic Mackey]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Rethinking Kings@Bulls, looks like a big time setup. Looks like it could be a similar situation as the Bucks line last night. Seems as if Vegas is taking a position on the Bulls, so no Kings play for me.

Thinking the same way..

Kings have been putting up a fight every game this road trip and it's gotten them nowhere. They came back from down double digits against Detroit and made it a single possession game with under three minutes to go, but the Pistons finished them off. The next night, at Indiana, a crushing loss, ultimately blew a late 113-107 lead and got nipped in the final minute. And last night came out with another spirited effort and led New Jersey by 12 points at halftime. The crusher was a 10-0 run by the Nets that turned an 82-81 lead into a 91-82 deficit. And with that, they wilted and lost, 98-90.

Now the weary, discouraged Kings have to play their fourth road game in five nights. I'll be surprised if they do anything other than get run off the court from the get-go.

Also saw this in the Chi Tribune:

The Bulls can't let a dismal home loss like Saturday's to the Timberwolves happen again. The Kings, another record-challenged team, arrive on the heels of what all described as a spirited Monday practice.

Of course, actions speak louder than words.

"We're definitely not good enough just to roll the ball out there and not play," coach Vinny Del Negro said. "We have to go to work every night.

I can see the Bulls getting up for this one and Sac pulling a no show.

GL with your plays

[Billy The Kid]

Thoughts on the Grizzlies/TPups. I lean Grizz in a revenge spot after loosing by 10 to the Wolves on the 29th. In that game Jefferson went off for 38 and 16 boards. Gay struggled going 5-18 but managed to put up 19 pints. Wolves also shot 49% from the floor for the game. Wolves won three of last four and are on the back end of a short 2 game roadie. Guess this is more of a Fade of the Wolves who have not met any expectations thus far and with a win tonight they would equall half their season win total in the past 5 games.

[Underdog88]

Bobcats+10.5

Rockets/76ers o189-105

Kings/Bulls o211

3 units each




Thunder+3/ +125

T-Pups+155

Hornets+275

1 unit each

[Underdog88]

Bulls-450 gm
Magic-450 1sth
Mavericks-445 1sth
Hornets+13.5-400

2 to win 2.62 units

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Bobcats+10.5

Rockets/76ers o189-105

Kings/Bulls o211

3 units each

tailing........GL!....don't pull another CLEM with these......

i got 189 -110, 211 -115 and +10

KIR............