Conference Finals

[Stifler's Mom]

29-24 (+5.60 units)

open futures bets:

Denver to win NBA finals +2500 - 0.2 units to win 5 units
Denver to win Western conf +800 - 0.5 units to win 4 units
C Billups to win Finals MVP +2000 - 0.2 units to win 4 units
C Anthony to win Finals MVP +2000 - 0.2 units to win 4 units

Tuesday:

Denver +6.5

2 units

Game 1 ml parlay @ +314:

Denver ml +245/Cleveland ml -500

1 unit to win 3.14 units

[Stifler's Mom]

Lame loss last night on the ml....

30-25 (+6.60 units)

Cavs -8.5

2 units

The unmotivated Magic will probably return tonight after finally showing up in game 7 and dispatching of the outmatched Celtics, which they should have done in 4 games.

They might keep it close for a while, but I think once Cleveland goes on a run, they just won't have the answer.

Additionally, Cleveland lost zero home games this year in which they played their starters (yes, i know they lost 1 at the end with basically everyone sitting), and I have no reason to believe they lose tonight either. Therefore taking under 10 points is, imo, not the thing to do.

If Orlando actually shows up for a change in a non "must win" game, then so be it, but I haven't really seen anything from Orlando thus far in the playoffs that suggests they do so tonight, so i'm going the other way....

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL @ the Cavs

What a completely hapless team. I had it wrong who wouldn't be able to answer the run, lol

Congrats to everyone who had Orlando

[Stifler's Mom]

30-26 (+4.40 units)

Nuggets ml -170

2 units

I just think the Lakers are outmatched in this series, and it is showing.

Prior to this series, they got the crap beaten out of them 3x by the Rockets, 2 of those without Yao, and both of the last 2 road games were never close with Houston just plain out playing them emotionally and physically. Luckily for the Lakers, they were able to take it out on the "Chinamanless" Rockets at home, or Kobe and co would be casting their rods long already, which they will be after this series anyhow.

The Denver Nuggets, not the LA Lakers are the best team in the West.....

[GKL68]

I agree. Nugs haven't lost by more than 3 pts entire playoffs. GL stif I'm on them too!

[Stifler's Mom]

Nuggets choked

Will come back with them in game 4 @ -4.5. Public will pound LA in this one, but I believe sharp money will keep it from going down, and maybe even up to -5.

I still think they win the series. Just sucks to have taken a -170 loss on them when I suppose I should have just laid the -4. Either way, I'm trying to be selective, and laid off in game 2, figuring game 3 would be the game they laid it on LA, and obviously screwed up both times

30-27 (+1 unit)

Sunday & Monday:

Magic -1.5
Stink Nuggets -4.5

2 units each

Parlay both @ +260

1 unit

[GKL68]

Like both of these as well. Nugs can't afford losing game 4 at home and I see them evening the series.

[Daws1089]

nice hits on the nuggles and love, sex and magic


The game 4 line of CLE -1.5 is perplexing. I saw it earlier this morning at a pick em, then to -1 and now -1.5. So are sharps pounding this or is it public money? I see 60% on CLE for this game roughly which isn't a huge %. I guess this appears to be a must win for CLE, but what exactly has CLE done to deserve being a fav in orlando? They lost game 1, albeit a close one, but lost game 1 at home, then just about lost game 2 if it weren't for lebron, get outplayed in game 3, and now they are favs in Orlando when they could barely even win at home? I don't understand this line and I think I will have to back ORL because they have the better bench, better matchups, and Lebron can't win by himself. Oh yea and Mo williams just guaranteed the series victory

[Daws1089]

nice hits on the nuggles and love, sex and magic


The game 4 line of CLE -1.5 is perplexing. I saw it earlier this morning at a pick em, then to -1 and now -1.5. So are sharps pounding this or is it public money? I see 60% on CLE for this game roughly which isn't a huge %. I guess this appears to be a must win for CLE, but what exactly has CLE done to deserve being a fav in orlando? They lost game 1, albeit a close one, but lost game 1 at home, then just about lost game 2 if it weren't for lebron, get outplayed in game 3, and now they are favs in Orlando when they could barely even win at home? I don't understand this line and I think I will have to back ORL because they have the better bench, better matchups, and Lebron can't win by himself. Oh yea and Mo williams just guaranteed the series victory

[TheCaymanIslands]

I think CLE wins this game and goes back to Cleveland. Basically everyone is counting them out and miraculously they are road favs? That should tell you something.

[Stifler's Mom]

Mo Williams, lol. The word douche comes to mind.....

Anyway.....the line does tell me something. It tells me the public likes Cleveland, even if it's only 65/35 or so now (sportsbook.com shows 66% CLE/34% ORL and sports insights shows 64% CLE/36% ORL). That's not overwhelming, but it's certainly notable, especially in a playoff game where there is no "****ty team" that everyone naturally either fades or stays away from.

Remember though, the line opened with Orlando as the -1 fave, and people were slamming the **** out of Cleveland at + money (everywhere was showing 80% of so on CLE not long after it opened), so naturally the books had to back off a little and make them -110, -115, or whatever they are now on the ml, which carries the -1.5 along with it. Now those who like Orlando buy in at a better line and things stabilize a little, so no, I am not at all concerned about any type of sharp or smart money on Cleveland. IMO the sharpest of players would stay far away from this particular game. Too many variables.

I mean anyone who has watched the first 3 games of this series, and their matchups back into the regular season knows who the better team is. Clearly it's Orlando, and you'd have to be completely blind not to see it.

Now the question is for me not who the public likes, but do I trust Orlando to bring it in a "non must win" game. I actually do think I might make a play on them tonight. They seem motivated, and in an "us against the world" mentality right now, and I like that.

Lebron continues to get all the calls though, as pointed out by Van Gundy, Howard, and the announcers during/after the last game. Lebron getting eliminated loses $$ for the NBA, and as ****ed up as it is, it's pretty obvious they're trying to prevent it....and that concerns me a little.

All in all, I believe this will be a close game. Cleveland needs it and will without a doubt fight hard. They're not ****ty, so of course any time a non **** team gives it their all, they've got a shot. I don't think they can bury Orlando though....especially not on the road, unless Orlando lays an egg, which they ARE capable of, as they have proven in the past, and like I said, is my main concern with backing them tonight.

If i can get +2 with Orlando, I might either take it, or I might tease it to +6 with Denver +10 for game 5 in that series, or a play similar to that. Even if they win game 5, I don't think the Lakers have what it takes to bury Denver even at home....but that's another story all together, and I do like getting any type of points with Orlando tonight. Teasing things gets me into trouble though, lol, as it's often times not the wisest thing to do, so I'd probably wind up grabbing the +2 points....although imo it will never hit +2, no matter how much the public likes Cleveland or doesn't like them. 2 points doesn't sound like much, but I believe moving the line to +2 would open the books up to sharp $$ on Orlando, as they would at the very least be a value bet at that point at either +2 or at nice + money on the ml, or both.

[GKL68]

I agree, NBA favor a Kobe Lebron final and the refs are giving them a lot of calls. The NBA is still an entertainment business and the more NBA drama more revenue. I'm hoping the better/balanced team still shines through.

[Stifler's Mom]

33-27 (+7.60 units)

Magic +2

2 units

Well found a +2 at Sports Interaction, so I went with it.

I'm not as confident in this one as the Orlando game 3 or Denver game 4, both of which I liked a whole lot, but I just don't see what Cleveland has done in this series to justify them being a road fave.

Cleveland just seems like too easy of a pick here, and the fact of the matter is that if you could just pick every team that was a "must win", it would be quite easy to roll in the dough at this. We all know it's not that easy.

Go Magic

[TheCaymanIslands]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

33-27 (+7.60 units)

Magic +2

2 units

Well found a +2 at Sports Interaction, so I went with it.

I'm not as confident in this one as the Orlando game 3 or Denver game 4, both of which I liked a whole lot, but I just don't see what Cleveland has done in this series to justify them being a road fave.

Cleveland just seems like too easy of a pick here, and the fact of the matter is that if you could just pick every team that was a "must win", it would be quite easy to roll in the dough at this. We all know it's not that easy.

Go Magic

Goodluck but I think Lebron goes ape**** and wills the Cavs to a victory.

[SRN1985]

Originally Posted by TheCaymanIslands

Goodluck but I think Lebron goes ape**** and wills the Cavs to a victory.

Yea..I get that vibe

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Go Magic