***Friday NBA Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Have the day off so I'm going to get cracking on this Friday card. It's nice and big so hopefully we can get some winners out of it. Taking the night off CBB so this and NFL Champ games are all I'm looking at today. Might be a little ambitious but I'm gonna try and touch on every game if possible. Hopefully as the day goes on other guys will chime in.


Before even looking at the lines I will say I expect a couple heavy faves- Orl, Atl, and Boston all likely to be 8-10 range. I also have a theory that lines are shaded up towards the faves on Friday's, as this is when there is heavy public action. For this reason I will be looking for reasons to back dogs....

[Underdog88]

Heat-2
Wiz ou194.5


Heat on the front end of a b2b and off a 39 pt loss @Char. Just a horrid scheduling spot for them last game plus shooting 28.9% for the game won't help. The Wiz are off a tough 1 pt loss vs Dallas, so they could very well be in letdown mode. This is the last time this season these two teams will face off, and in the 3 meetings this year the totals have been 178, 166, and 182. Wiz won last meeting @ Mia. Last 4 Wiz home total results are 182, 189, 182, 189. The 4 total results from last season between these two went 174, 181, 164, 222. Would be tough to make the play given how badly the Heat performed last road game, but given all the numbers why didn't this line open sub 190? I think the oddsmakers are expecting a faster pace. Initial lean to the o194.5, gonna see what the line does for a little and maybe dig deeper. Gun to my head I would lean Heat just because they own the series, but I'm not sure how you could play them as road faves.

[Daws1089]

Regarding POR/BOS:

I think the public is onto the poor play of the celtics at home, which is why they are backing the blazers tonight. The large line i think is a decent stance by the books on BOS. Then again, who wants to back BOS by 10+ with the way they have played recently?

[Underdog88]

Daws I think that one has all the makings of a blowout. I believe Garnett is going to be back, they are off a road loss @Detroit, and Roy is out. I don't fare well laying heavy chalk, but am leaning Boston. Also like the under.... Would look for Boston to play some lockdown D and without Roy the Blazers can look very vanilla. Total opened 10 pts lower than both teams ppg average, which is always a good thing I look for when considering an under play. Also dropped to 185....

[Underdog88]

Indy
Detroit-3.5 ou199


Detroit off perhaps their biggest home win of the season vs Boston, and have won 3 straight at home. Indy got beatdown in a bad spot vs Orlando, where they were completely dominated in the paint. Hibbert had 4 pts. Both teams are on the front end of a b2b. For some reason totals keep popping out at me. In the last 10 Pistons home games, just one has gone over 199. It was a 214 pt ot game vs NO in which 22 of the pts came in ot. Why then is this total set so high? Both teams combined avg 190 ppg, but allow 200. Pacers coach Obrien after the game (i'm paraphrasing).... A big lineup doesn't work for us. We are better when we're small. it's too slow it doesn't run, move, get up and down....

Pacers allowing 107.7 ppg on the road, and I would expect much more Dahntay & Dunleavy pushing tempo. Granger is avg 30+ ppg last 4 vs Detroit. Pacers last 6 totals on the front end of a b2b are 196, 226, 225, 233, 199, & 208. Last season' these two teams met up 4 times, and just once the total stayed under 208 pts. Home team won every meeting last season. Big lean to the over 199

[Daws1089]

good stuff on detroit total Udog. I just saw that Roy is out as well.That explains the size of the line, but why would the public want to back POR so badly without Roy?


I like the Knicks plus the points tonight. Lakers on a b2b and have not been playing well losing 5 of their last 8 i think? Lakers might win, but not by much.


I'm also leaning Bulls and Bucks. The bucks match up well with TOR in my opinion and I don't see this game as being much different than the other night. 7.5 is too much I think for revenge.


The Bulls have a pretty good group of rebounders and hustlers on their squad like Noah, Thomas, Gibson etc. That is huge to me when they play a team like PHO who can't rebound for ****. Although, with the insertion of Lopez they have been a bit better down low. The Bulls are on the 3rd game of their winless road trip, yet the line is still pretty low which has me thinking the books are looking for PHO money.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

good stuff on detroit total Udog. I just saw that Roy is out as well.That explains the size of the line, but why would the public want to back POR so badly without Roy?


I like the Knicks plus the points tonight. Lakers on a b2b and have not been playing well losing 5 of their last 8 i think? Lakers might win, but not by much.

I would think people would want to back the Blazers just because of how bad the C's have looked losing 4 of their last 5. Have to think garnett returning will energize this team, especially on the defensive end. I so want to play C's and under, just worried about the C's really rolling the Blazers. They don't play again until monday vs Clips, so it's night like they will hold back. Looking at how the rest of the C's schedule plays out for the month, I would think they want two convincing home wins the next two, because after the Clips mon they play TNT @Orl, friday @Atl, then are home sunday to face the Lakers. This is a critical point even though it's still early in the season imo. I may be on the C's the next two......


I always seem to be on the wrong side of the Knicks, so i tend to stick to totals. Lakers are now 2-4 su last 6 on the road. They beat Dallas and the Kings (who took LA to OT) in close games and lost @Clev, @SA, @Port, @Phx. Earlier in the season they lost @Utah and @Denver. Problem is those are all very strong home teams, not the 10-11 Knicks. I think they could keep it close but in all likelihood I don't see Kobe letting the Knicks beat him. This is a long road stretch on deck for the Lakers, and I would be more inclined to think they falter at the end of it vs better home teams.....

[Underdog88]

After further review, I hate the Knicks tonight. No Curry, even if Bynum doesn't go Gasol should have a good day in the paint. Just think the Lakers win, so I can't play NY in any form. I may be on LA.....

Hornets/Wolves

Interesting one here as the Hornets won the last meeting @home with a Paul layup. They were on the back end of a b2b and scoring slowed 4thq. (58pt 1st, 59 pt 2ndh, 44 3rd, 32 pt 4th.) In that game the Wolves outrebounded NO 49-29, had 22 fb pts and lost because they had 21 turnovers. Hornets have played much better so far this month on the road, going 4-2, with an ot loss @Det and 4 pt loss @Phil. Quality wins @Utah & OKC, but they have a couple tough ones on the horizon. @ Denver tomorrow (Nugs have revenge), @Port@GS, then home vs Bulls, @Memphis. I have Memphis circled as a potential big play on the home team there.... Love should be back for this one which is big for the Wolves, they need his rebounding to have a chance at the W here IMO. I think this could be a great show between Paul/West & Flynn/Love. I think this is a nice spot for an over, with a lean to the home doggie. No way would I lay pts with the 6-15 on the road Hornets, who are also off a last second close win vs Memphis. May be playing Puppies ML small, and def leaning towards the over as a play.......

[Underdog88]

Cliff notes....



Dallas/Sixers- Dallas 15-7 on the road, have won 7 of 8 vs Philly. Philly is 3-9 su last 12 @ home and Dallas is only laying -2.5? Fishy enough for me to lay off the Mavs. Philly has revenge off a 2 pt road loss to Dallas, ut i'm not sure it's enough to get me interested in the home dog, think I need more to warrant a play. Saw early value in the total but it was steamed up to around where I would set it.

[Underdog88]

Bucks/Raptors- I don't see how you could lay 7.5 with the Craptors (unless it's a Sunday afternoon game). Bogut killed them inside Wed, and very well could again. Bucks have been bad on the road but look at who they have played and you'll see why, as it was every top home team lol. They did beat NJ and Indy in between, but who hasn't. Lean dog & over

[Troubleduke]

Nice thread U-Dog. Old school

A couple of totals I'm watching:

Mavericks/Philly over
Lakers/Knicks over

I'm not going to be getting the best numbers on either but I still think they are way too low. You'd think the LAL would be motivated after last night and Kobe would want to put on a show in the garden, and the Knicks D-- well that speaks for itself. I see lotsa a running here. Philly's offense hasn't been on fire, but their defense still sucks and Dallas can tend to give up alot on the road. I'll most likely be on both among some others.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Troubleduke

Nice thread U-Dog. Old school

A couple of totals I'm watching:

Mavericks/Philly over
Lakers/Knicks over

I'm not going to be getting the best numbers on either but I still think they are way too low. You'd think the LAL would be motivated after last night and Kobe would want to put on a show in the garden, and the Knicks D-- well that speaks for itself. I see lotsa a running here. Philly's offense hasn't been on fire, but their defense still sucks and Dallas can tend to give up alot on the road. I'll most likely be on both among some others.

Was hoping you would pop in


I lean to both over too, makes me feel better to see you on them. Trying to decide if it will be Lakers or over, as I think the side is a solid play as well. If Lakers ml was 2 to 1 I would likely be on it tonight. My concern with Mavs over is the loss of Howard, who apparently may be out today? If he is it may be asking too much of Dirk.... though the Sixers have allowed a high % shooting this season so far. Maybe AI goes off today.



Any thoughts on the Cats/Hawks over? Hawks with revenge after losing earlier this season 103-83. They shot 39% 2-16 from 3 and were outrebounded 56-35, could see them looking to make a statement here. At the same time the Cats are loooking good lately, albiet mostly @ home where they morph into a great team...Just a little scared that it's set rather low, but I could see this being a high scoring affair.

[Daws1089]

HOU/SA o/u 192


Rockets have only been held under 100 pts once since Jan. 6th and they scored 94 in that game. Granted, those games were all played against mid to low level teams like NY, MIL, CHA, MIN and MIA. None of those teams are anything like SA. SA has been scoring a ton more this season. Typically this matchup is usually low scoring with a total set much lower than this. Not sure which way to go here.

[Troubleduke]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Was hoping you would pop in

Any thoughts on the Cats/Hawks over? Hawks with revenge after losing earlier this season 103-83. They shot 39% 2-16 from 3 and were outrebounded 56-35, could see them looking to make a statement here. At the same time the Cats are loooking good lately, albiet mostly @ home where they morph into a great team...Just a little scared that it's set rather low, but I could see this being a high scoring affair.

I'm passing on it just because I don't trust the Cats on the road to score they like they have been recently until they show me they can do it. 3-15 on the road? Even with a win @ Cleveland that still makes me say yikes. I could easily see them throwing up a dud with the Hawks playing motivated D and ending up somewhere in the mid-80's, and then we'd need alot of points from Atlanta. If anything I'd take the Hawks tonight on the side. Charlotte's value has never been higher than it is right now and this number makes me think the books want Bobcat money, and from what I can tell they are getting it.

Bottom line, I'm passing on this game altogether, lol.

[Daws1089]

Udog,


Does no Eddy Curry even matter really?