NBA Playoffs Wed 4/25

[Stifler's Mom]

reg season 229-221 (+1.91 units)
playoffs 5-6 (-2.76 units)
overall 234-227 (-0.85 units)

More chalk....yummmmm

Spurs -8 (-105)
Cavs -11.5
Dallas -9 (-105)

2 units each

[homedawg]

GL StiffleMeister

[SRN1985]

Wow, didnt think I would see all this chalk...6 straight home faves to cover?!?



Good Luck

[Stifler's Mom]

IMO games 1 for both SA and DAL were games where they got caught sleeping a bit and were never able to recover. I'm not taking anything away from Denver or Golden St for getting the job done, but on the other hand, I don't see either one of them taking 2 straight on the opponents floor.

Normally teams who win SU in the playoffs, also cover the spread, especially when they are playing on their home floor and are down in the series. I tracked this last year at the other place and it was somewhere in the neighborhood of 80%. Most of the losers were actually on Memphis not covering dog lines at home against Dallas in the process of being swept, and then the Spurs losing at home to Dallas in the West finals. I believe only 1 fave won but did not cover in the spot SA and DAL are in tonight if I remember correctly, although I can't go look cause that joint is dead, lol.

I would have actually been far more concerned about playing DAL and SA had to oddsmakers actually released a lower line for them, somewhere in the -5 or -6 range. Them giving out basically the same line, and letting the public pound the crap out of the dogs who have both already won SU in game 1 as big underdogs tells me they feel the same way.

Guess we'll see how it turns out, but I felt the same about PHX last night. They got caught sleeping for a half in game 1, before waking up and easily disposing of the severely outmatched Lakers for the next 6 qtrs. I don't think either of these series are as big of a mismatch by any stretch, as DEN and GS are both far better teams than LAL IMO, but still, I believe the home faves are the way to go in "must win" spots for them, judging from past NBA playoff experience.

If DAL and/or SA win but don't cover, then so be it....but I'm going with what has worked for me in the past.

And oh yea, I just think Washington is too depleted to compete, plus they were a miserable road team ATS even with Arenas.

That's why all the chalk....and more than likely i'll be playing alot of chalk throughout the playoffs, because I believe the lines will continue to be this way. Look at Utah being favored over Houston tomorrow in game 3, same situation. LAL and ORL are in the same spots as well (behind in the series and are playing must win games) although both of them are dogs, which does bring the winning % down a little.

Then again, it may not work for **** this year, lol

[Underdog88]

GL Stif, just played the Mavs... definitely a bit scary laying chalk when they looked so bad game 1, but IMO it's the right side

[Stifler's Mom]

I'm wondering if anyone for Dallas is going to realize Monta Ellis is in the game and guard him every so often

[vazman05]

wtf is up with DAL...is this serious??