***UDoggie's NBA Finals***

[Underdog88]

Playoffs 100-118 +32.8 units


Cavs+8 gm1

3 units



Played this Sunday morning.... Nobody is giving the Cavs a shot, seems as if the oddsmakers aren't either. 8 pts? I know the Spurs have been resting while the Cavs have been battling the Stones, but hell they have till thursday to rest up. Fact of the matter is I think the Cavs match up pretty well with the Spurs....


PG- Parker is one of the best pgs in the game, it will be interesting to see how Gibson/Hughes play against him. Gibson has really been a spark the last couple games, nice to see a young kid step up & make plays. I really don't see him pulling a no show now. My concern is that Parker will look to draw contact & get him in foul trouble a bit more than Billups/Rip did. Snow is great defensively, but such an offensive liability- it'll interesting to see how coach Brown will work the matchups....

SG- IMO this could be problematic for the Cavs, as Pavlovic has been a liability in my eyes- Ginobili/Finley could potentially eat him up offensively. Ginobili is another player that is great at getting to the hoop. Barry doesn't scare me much.

SF- Um, LeBron James. No doubt Bowen is a great defender, & I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see LJ held under 24 ppg, but you have to look at the bigger picture- this is not just a scorer, but a great team player. Who have you seen his size that can pass the ball as well as him? He avg 9.2 reb vs Det (2 higher than in the regular season), 8.5 assists per game (2.5 better than regular season). Those are staggering numbers, especially for a 22 year old! His Ft % is 7% higher as well. In short, he is playing the best he has ever played, & in turn is making everyone around him that much better. X-Factor

PF- Duncan will get his pts, it's inevitable. IMO one of the best all around players in the game ever. He's also a great flopper LoL. The Cavs need to go right at him on offense & hope to get him in foul trouble early... Gooden will likely be in foul trouble the whole series, I like Varejao to pester Tim a bit though. IMO Horry off the bench has been less & less of an impact as the playoffs have progressed, while Marshall nearly doubled his minutes in the Detroit series, I would expect him to play around 18 min per this series.

C- Z must stay out of foul trouble & look to attack a bit more. IMO he tends to settle way to much rather than battle for position. He had a couple stretches in the Detroit series where he stepped up huge- game 5 I believe scoring 8 straight pts...again i like Varejao off the bench as he is scrappy & fights for rebounds.


Of course the Spurs have the decided edge in experience, but so did the Pistons! To me 8 pts is simply too much to pass up. Some numbers...

The Spurs are 11-5 ats in the playoffs (12-4 su)

The Cavs are 10-4-2 ats (12-4 su)

The Cavs beat the Spurs in SA as 6 pt dogs early in the season (88-81), & again as 4 pt home dogs (82-78)


Although combined these 2 teams avg around 195 per game, the total is set @ 180.5


I think the total says a lot about what kind of game we'll see. I expect games played in the mid-high 80's. I am hesitant to play the under in SA though, as all 9 home games the Spurs have played have gone well over the total set for game 1. 4 of Cleveland's 8 road playoff games went over... I'll likely look into half plays concerning the totals, as i tend to get a better feel after watching the pace a bit....

I have also decided to let the Cavs future ride... sure I could play on the Spurs for a 3 unit profit either way, but hell it's 1 unit & I believe. Given the 2-3-2 setup, the Cavs need to steal one of the first 2 in SA to have a solid shot. I'll be grabbing a little of the ML as well. GLTA, & feel free to post some thoughts

[Underdog88]

...also considering a play on the Spurs team u94- Only 3x in the playoffs has a team scored over that vs the Cavs....1 was an ot game

[BlazerAndy]

I think the Spurs win the first game by 20 +

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

He's also a great flopper LoL.

I believe thats his swimmer's background that contributes to this LOL

I agree with ya Underdog, thats a steep number, kinda reminiscent of when the Nets played the Lakers or the Sixers played the Lakers at their height, what was the spread then?

I wouldnt be surprised if Cavs steal game 1 from the Spurs.

GL!

[homedawg]

Stop the Press!!!


cavs off a very emotional series, and 1st finals, .. not gonna be the same team in game 1..

[Underdog88]

adding..


u90 1sth

u45.5 1stq

Duncan u22.5 pts+130

LeBron Ass & Reb o15-140

2 units each


I expect a game under, but a really slow start to this game....LeBron has 15 or more in 14 of 16 postseason games.....

[Low]

GL...tonite Underdog!! GO CAVS

[jpix]

GL Udog.

[Underdog88]

Thanks guys...


Spurs team u46 2ndh

2 units

[Underdog88]

Gooden once again proving he's better than Garnett, fouling to give Parker the 3 pt play & cover

Tough loss on Duncan prop, losing by a bucket.....3-3 -2.1 units

[Underdog88]

Game 2....


SA/Clev u176.5-105

Spurs team u92

Spurs team u46.5 1sth

SA/Clev u88.5 1sth

Cavs+4 1sth

2 units each


Waiting for props, & still considering the Cavs for full game....reasoning in Q's shyt talking thread

[Q-Unit]

like the Cavs first Q

gonna mull over the totals, my gut tells me over (as long as I dont try to stubbornly chase, it should be alright LOL). If I hear news before tomorrow's tipoff, that Gibson is starting, i may pull the trigger opposite of ya.

but GL either way

[Underdog88]

Thanks Q.... gonna give the props another shot


Gibson P&A o14.5+130

LeBron rebounds o7.5-115

Gooden pf o3-120

2 units each



Was ready to play Gibson pts over if it was at 13 & it's set at 10.5. Problem is it's juiced -135, so I'm rolling the dice & hoping he gets a couple assists for the + money. Quite possible he scores over 15 points alone. LeBron had 7 rebounds game 1, so 1 more isn't asking too much for tonight, IMO. Again I was set to play A&R o14.5, but IMO he'll likely need 8 boards to cover that anyway. Gooden prop is a silly one, I'll admit, but he's a dumb ass. I can't see him not committing 3 fouls tonight. He's committed 3 or more in 4 of the last 5 games. Staying away from the game line, gonna wait till the half to see how the Cavs adjusted

[Low]

GL..tonite underdog!

[Underdog88]

Thanks Low, I'll need it



Cavs u45.5-105 2ndh

6 units

Spurs team o22 3rdq

2 units