JML Week 2 NFL >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

YTD: 4-2. +3.85 Units

Tried to ease into it in the opening week....not this week, lol.


Steelers -9.5 vs Bills
Buffalo's defence is depleted, their passing game blows, and their decent running game faces a good run defence. I don't see the Bills keeping this one close in Pittsburgh's home opener.

Packers +1 vs Giants
I assume alot of people will be on the Packers because of the NY injuries to marquee players, as well as their horrible defensive performance against Dallas, and that is a part of my play....but this also seems to be a sandwich game for the Giants after losing to Dallas last week, and playing another division rival in the Redskins next week. Look ahead? I'm not a trend guy, but NY is 1-8 vs the spread the week before the rival game against Washington. Look ahead indeed. Farve will carve up that ****ty secondary of NY, and with NY missing alot of their weapons this week, they won't keep up like they did in Dallas.

Saints -3 vs Bucs
You gotta figure the Saints offence explodes after being kept in check in a tough spot opening night. Lots of time to prepare, and this contender will not want to start out 0-2. Bucs offence is horrible and injured. Saints in a rout.

Vikings +3.5 vs Lions
Everybody seems to be excited about the Detroit offence and their big receivers, but I think the under-rated Vikings get this done, and at the very least cover. Defence and a running game gets it done in this division, and Minny is hands down the better team in these areas.....Vikings win a close one IMO.

Panthers -6.5 vs Texans
Houston beat a bad KC team in Texas....big deal, this is like night and day having to go into Carolina and face the Panthers in their home opener. The Cats are a great all around team....looked great in beating a good STL team on the road (held them to only 238 total yds), out rushed Steven Jackson and the Rams by more than 2-1, and have the best player on the field in Steve Smith. Delhomme looked good. Mismatches all over the field in this one....surprised it's not DD. Another rout IMO.

Colts -7 vs Titans
Best team in the NFL, who rolled NFC contender New Orleans, only giving a TD to a Titans team who played a little over their heads last week, and aren't that good of a team....Jax inexplicably could not stop the run....Indy will....and Peyton will go off as usual against what should be a bad Tenn secondary....the overrated Jags couldn't exploit them, the Colts will.

Jets +10.5 vs Ravens
I don't see that bumbling Ravens offence covering a DD number...Jets cover a close, low scoring game, IMO...Just a hunch. lol.

Raiders +10.5 vs Broncos
Way too many points here as well...Denver just plain does not cover pointspreads (1-7 ATS @ home in 2006, and did not cover week 1 @ Buf), so I don't expect them to cover DD's. Oakland should be improved this year, will likely have Culpepper starting with a chip on his shoulder...Oakland has a chance to win this outright IMO.


2 Units Each


I'll also be on the Skins +7 on Monday, but will wait for that one.....GL Sunday!

[Stifler's Mom]

I think you're either selling our Bills short, or overreacting to Pittsburgh benefitting from a google of Browns turnovers and/or mistakes.

No the offense isn't good, but they did show the ability to at least run the ball a little....and I know the passing game could be better if they'd take off Losman's diaper and let him pee in the big boy toilet for a change.

Special teams are always underestimated, and the Bills are one of the best in that area, and have IMO the best special teams coach in the league in Bobby April.

Not sure if i'll play on the game or not yet, but while I have a hard time seeing an outright Bills win, I think they'll keep it closer than many expect.

I loved the way both Poz and Lynch looked too. If i didn't know any better, I sure as hell wouldn't have known either guy was playing in his first NFL game

Cracks me up too. No offense to Ravens fans here, but I can't help but wonder what BALT was looking for when they traded what was IMO way too much for McGahee. I thought they felt they were getting a solid RB, but it appears they're afraid to give him the ball in crucial situations. I mean if you'd rather have freakin Kyle Boller throw than hand it to Willis, that's not good IMO.

Willis is a good back, but Lynch makes me not miss him one single bit. IMO Lynch will have a better NFL career than McGahee (barring injury). Great move Marv

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Maybe so Stif...and I hate laying DD against my team....I just think the Steelers return to powerhouse status this year with a rejuvinated energy with Tomlin at the helm, and with it being the home opener at that madhouse, I see Pitt rolling. I have no confidence in Losman or the receivers (Reed out?), and although I agree that Lynch looks like the real deal, I don't see being able to "run the ball a little" parlaying into anything substantial on the scoreboard against a good defence at home. True...Pittsburgh got a weak opponent last week, but that's not their concern, and all they could do was come out and get it done on the road, and that's exactly what they did.

Believe me, if I lose this bet, I hope it's from a Bills outright win! But...with all the injuries on defence, the inept passing game, and a road game against an elite team, I see a cover. But I could very well be wrong....and if this was in Orchard Park, I'd probably leave it alone. but, hey....like you say, in the NFL, the outright winner usually covers, and I don't see Pitt losing this game at all...so hopefully that comes through, and it's by DD. We'll see....I'll be watching!

Yeah....that Poz pick could end up being a STEAL!

McGahee...please. I would take Lynch over him RIGHT NOW, after only seeing one game by the rook....because of talent AND attitude.....imagine 3 years from now! lol. And yeah, that Monday nighter sure said alot about what Billick thinks of McGAYhee, eh? Can you just see SD, STL, SEA, KC, PIT or NO not handing it off to their premier back almost every time inside the 5? lmao...

GL this week....looking forward to your NFL picks as usual...

[TheBeholdah]

gl jml, i'm with u on the saints and panthers

[birdsfan5]

Gl JML

[Stifler's Mom]

Only thing I can add is that +7.5 to +10 has been sort of the "danger zone" for the winner covers system.

+7 or less, the winner covers, and +10.5 or over, the winner usually covers (pretty much always the fave), but between +7.5 and +10, the fave usually wins SU, but only covers at about 35 to 40%.

I just think Pittsburgh looked overly good last week due to Cleveland turnovers and benefitting from them to jump out to a lead early. More power to em for doing so, but that game IMO would have played out much differently had Anderson started. Frye sucks ass.

Which brings me to part of the reason I'm taking the Browns again today....which, however, is irrelevant to this conversation, LOL

Reed has never been a big part of the Buffalo passing game though since day 1....so missing him or not doesn't really effect the way I see the game.

Had to tell after week 1 what any team will be, but IMO the Steelers aren't 10 points better than the Bills. They could be on any given day, but on average, I don't think they are.

Will I play BUF? Not sure yet. But I'm sure not laying the points with PIT. I just don't see them covering that line often enough to be profitable....even though it could easily happen today.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Adding...

Bears -12 vs KC - 2 Units
Tailing the board on this one....I thought it was alot of points for that tool Grossman to cover, but maybe the defence gets some scores?

Raiders ML +415 vs Broncos - 1/2 Unit
Oakland wins this one outright....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Well...it's been a while since I've seen a team dominated like the Bills were today. Ugly. That 26-3 score actually flattered the Bills. Time to yank Losman, IMO. Looks like another rough year in Buffalo.


Anyway...adding...

Dallas -3 vs Miami - 2 Units



GL

[Stifler's Mom]

Nice call on PIT. Bills just weren't ready. That's why I layed off that one.

KC might be the worst (and certainly the most unprepared) team in the NFL. Bears should win by 30+ today. I LOVE that pick. Easy to say when they're winning 14-0, but there's alot of game left, and really, how often do you see me playing a -12 fave in the NFL? LOL

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Nice call on PIT. Bills just weren't ready. That's why I layed off that one.

KC might be the worst (and certainly the most unprepared) team in the NFL. Bears should win by 30+ today. I LOVE that pick. Easy to say when they're winning 14-0, but there's alot of game left, and really, how often do you see me playing a -12 fave in the NFL? LOL

Yeah...Bills looked bad. The playcalling is awful....what a bad offence. Losman looks uncomfortable. Long year for us....

That's mainly why I added the Bears....you never lay DD...lol. I just don't like backing the mistake-prone Grossman. Hester helped us out!

GL

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Well...looks like 4-1 on the afternoon sides, and 6-4 overall on sides... got jobbed on the Oak ML...and I knew I shouldn't have backed Grossman on that high number, ah well ....Adding the night game....

Chargers +4 vs Pats
Two evenly matched teams....I'll tale the points on this dog day....