***Udoggie's Nuff'sa 'Nuff Week 3***

[Underdog88]

NFL 18-28 -18.35 units


Rough go so far this season, WTF was I doing playing road faves anyway? Back to the basics this week.




49ers+9.5-125

Texans+5

Chiefs-3+100

Ravens-7.5-105

3 units each



Sea/Cincy u50

Eagles-4

Jaguars+175

Giants+175

2 units each


Bills+17.5-125
Ravens-7.5
Titans+4.5

1 to win 5.2 units



I already knew I would be playing these two when the lines came out, so I was checking back & forth with Pinny (IMO the sharpest book in terms of line moves), & they had SF at 9, Texans at 4.5. Boy did I jump the gun! SF now @+10 & Texans+6. I guess I'm not too good at predicting line moves. Although I would always like to get the best possible line, the move just means more value for me when I add the moneylines....


49ers +9.5- Pitt is off to a blazing start, beating both their opponents by a combined 60-10 margin. A large part of this is due to the Steelers ability to run the ball effectively. They are averaging 195 yards per game on the ground, & 5.2 ypc. This in turn opens up the passing game immensely, as evidenced by Big Ben's numbers- 33-57 403 & 5 tds. The 49ers are 2-0, but haven't looked too impressive offensively or on pass D. Last week they beat the Rams despite only gaining 186 total yards. Alex Smith has been prettty much ineffective, with a 69.1 passer rating. IMO this has alot to do with their OL troubles. Good news is he has yet to throw an INT, & Gore has yet to have a great day.
Defensively, the Niners have been stopping the run effectively, allowing 3.6 ypc overall. Pretty good considering they faced Edge & Steven Jackson. They hald Jackson to just 60 yards on the ground in 20 carries. The problem lies in their pass D- Bulger threw for 368 on them last week (they did sack him 6 times). Had they not forced 3 turnovers, they would have certainly lost the game.

I think the key for SF will be to continue to stop the run & get pressure on the qb. If you slow Parker, you take away a huge part of the Steelers attack. Ben has only been sacked twice this season (pitt has recorded 10 sacks so far), & IMO tends to get rattled when pressured early in a game. SF has recorded 7 sacks this season, & is capable of putting some pressure on Ben. Willis has yet to disappoint, & IMO could be even better than advertised. Clemens should fare well against Ward, he saved the day last week forcing a fumble on Holt. The Steelers had trouble finding the endzone early last week, if you watched the game they should have won by 14 more. The Steel D has looked good, but then again they have yet to face a good offense. I think Gore can get the chains moving, but the OL is definitely going to have to step up their play for the Niners to get the W. I think SF gives the Steelers a tough go this week....


Texans+5 Same Colts team as last year IMO, way better Houston team. It was scarier for me to play against the Colts last week, but after watching, I'll likely be against them for every road game. Again, a recap of the last 9 away games for Indy....

@ Ten W 22-20

@ Hou. L 27-24

@ Jax L 44-17

@ Tenn L 20-17

@ Dal L 21-14

@ NE. W 27-20

@ Den W 34-31

@ NYJ W 31-28

@ NYG W 26-21

So they are 4-5 SU in the last 9 on the road (1-4 last 5), & have won by more than 5 pts one time! I don't even have to look to see that Indy will be a huge public play, likely a favorite to throw in a teaser. The not-so-secret way to beat the Colts- run, run, run & stop the run. The Titans had 313 total yards vs. Indy last week, & 140 of them were on the ground. Indy had 387 total offensive yds, but only 81 on the ground. Dayne ate Indy alive in their last meeting, rushing for 153 yards. Ahman Green is averaging 4.6 ypc. this season, so I expect a full out rushing attack... Houston went into Carolina & rushed for 120 yards against a tough D. Although Shaub has performed very well so far & has a 111.4 passer rating, it wouldn't surprise me to see him have u20 passing attempts this week. As some of you have already pointed out, Andre Johnson was injured last week- I'll wait on his status before adding the moneyline, but I still think that Houston can win without him. His presence would definitely be missed, but last year's win over Indy, he only had 4 catches for 48 yards. If this game is won, it'll be on the ground.

I don't think there is a D out there that can completely shut down Manning & co. but by stopping the run, you can keep Peyton from having 3rd & shorts- he's the best QB on 3rd & short I've ever witnessed. I think Houston can create longer 3rd down situations- they held Carolina to 66 yds on 18 rushes & KC to 72 yards on 17 rushes. That's very impressive to me. They have also enjoyed a greqat turnaround on the O-line, only allowing 2 sacks so far while the D has had 6 sacks. Maybe it was Carr!


I'll have more later tonight, will list the homedogs with some reasoning as to why they could be good plays... Leaning on a couple home faves, KC, Balty & (yikes) Philly.

[hodown]

with ya on all the homefavs listed, and normally i love the homedawgs but not this wk. atl is the only one i like. good stats on indy. johnson needs to play in that game, or indy will load up on the run. one thing going for indy is that bob sanders will be playing this go round, most of those games last year he was absent.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by hodown

with ya on all the homefavs listed, and normally i love the homedawgs but not this wk. atl is the only one i like. good stats on indy. johnson needs to play in that game, or indy will load up on the run. one thing going for indy is that bob sanders will be playing this go round, most of those games last year he was absent.

One thing's for sure.... I won't be on any road faves LoL. Sanders will be ther indeed, but he was also there last week.....


Just a list of dogs on my radar...


Bills+17 (not a homer play)

Rams+3.5 & +170

Jags+158

Giants+170


I won't play any dog mls until 5Dimes comes out with the reduced juice, usually can squeeze 10 cents out of a line. Still missing the hell out of Pinny though- SF is +405 there right now, & only +370 @ 5Dimes


Wanted to add, I believe the Houston ML has been sitting at +220 since it opened at 5Dimes, despite the line continuing to rise. I was wondering if anyone has the true opener for it RJP????

[bookiekilla]

I hear ya bro..enough is fkcn enough...i'm down 20 units myself this early in the season, and it's gotta stop this week!!

GL with your plays!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL this week!

The only one I'm against you on is the Houston play. Johnson is such a huge part of their success, that I really think that it makes it an Indy or no play. They really need him for the big play threat, to keep up with what Indy's offence will put up on them. Indy can also concentrate on the Texans running game, and short passing, knowing Andre isn't there to beat them deep. Even knowing he isn't there must give Indy some extra confidence coming into this game (not that they need it). I don't see Houston beating this Indy team to go 3-0, and the 5 points falls into that "pick a winner" system.....All over Indy this week.

Gl with the rest!

Bills ML?

[TheBeholdah]

off to a crap start as well, two games i was lookin at are the steelers and redskins but i see you are opposite so i wanna offer you my viewpoint and see what you think.

i dont think i will lay the 9 or so with the steelers but was considering maybe throwing in tease. i have a hard time believing the 49ers can score enough to win in Pitt. 2nd str8 road game and with significant travel here coming off two tough late game comeback victories, i think they're on borrowed time and due for a letdown here. the game vs cardinals was won because of the late game ineptitude of the cardinals defense, and the rams i think are a crap team with a banged up O-line. the steelers at home i think can grind out 23-27 points and i dont see 49ers breaking 17 points. also with the 49ers seemingly having o-line issues the steelers blitz happy defense could make it real hard for them to move the ball. tough one tho i dont think the 9.5 is a bad play at all because like you said if you slow parker down you slow the steelers down and i could see a 4-7 point steelers win. are you making this play mainly on the niners defense keeping steelers in check?

also, isee your considering the gmen
redskins i dont think are too good a team and they come off monday night road win, i was hoping the skins would lose a tough one in philly and come out for blood at home vs the gmen, but even thoguh it's not the case, with a bye week looming i think it's unlikely to see a big letdown here. the redskins i've gotta believe will get up for this game as it is somewhat a revenge spot because gmen beat their asses twice last year. the gmen are TRASH right now and i'm kicing myself for not jumping on the packers last week. TIKI was a big reason the gmen have owned the skins lately, he rushed all over them and now i dont see the gmen getting 100 yards on the ground. offensivly for skins, one key thing is that the replacements for jansen and randy are veteran players with experience who stepped in and did a pretty godo job last week giving cambell enough time. and smoot is most likely returning too which should help secondary.
the talk all over ny sports radio and all over NY is that the Gmen are finsihed and think they're right. **** defense and no running game on the road? combined with a lameduck coach? 4 seems like a real cheap price, y are u considering the gmen here? real curious to hear your take on that game, i couldnt lay a dollar on gmen right now.

[Horfin]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Just a list of dogs on my radar...


Bills+17 (not a homer play)

Rams+3.5 & +170

Jags+158

Giants+170

Don't forget about the Titans on MNF. Not sure if they are a dog or not as I don't check lines during the week. But seems like they may be a dog. Personally I think the public may be all over NO with the memories of opening night at home last year for the Aints

Horfin

[Daws1089]

Good news for texans is dallas clark, ryan diem, and rob morris all did not practice today. but the bad news is ahman green and ron dayne didnt either...

[birdsfan5]

GL Underdog

[Underdog88]

One thing I'd like to note.... everyone is saying no Andre Johnson, no way Houston wins, why did the line open at 4.5? Someboday explain that to me....

Beholdah- the SF play is partly because I think there is a false perception about how good the Sleelers are. SF did indeed look ugly in both wins, so this could very well be a letdown game. I just don't think Pitt has been tested yet. IMO SF can slow the run, & although their weakness is the pass D, I don't think Pitt can exploit it. If Pitt gets too blitz happy, they'll be seeing the back of Gore's jersey. I'm pretty sure the playbook will be calling for quite a few screens short routes to get the ball out of Alex's hands quickly.

Public perception is what drives me to make the Giants play. Everyone has written off the Giants, & Washington is riding high off a MNF divisional road win. Eli Manning is fine, he's looked great if you ask me. 97 passer rating, 5td 2 int (1 wasn't his fault). Call me crazy, but I think I prefer Ward out of the backfield to Jacobs. He averaged 6.4 ypc vs. GB & provides a viable oiption out of the backfield (jacobs has ston hands). Plex is questionable but I'm sure he'll suit up. The Giants secondary is bad (everyone knows this), but I think many are failing to see that the Skins gave up 5.7 ypc last week, while the NYG rush D allowed just 2.9 ypc vs. GB. Granted there is a step up in rb quality, but I think the Giants can outscore Washington- looking into the team total as well. I smell a letdown.

Thanks BK, JML, Horfy, Daws & Birds

[Horfin]

Ud,

I am very sorry for you, but I am in agreement on every one of your plays.

Giants especially.


Horfin

[TheBeholdah]

thanks for your opinions udogg, i think i am going to hop on the over in the wash-gmen game

[Low]

GL..today UD..

[jpix]

GL today Udog.

[Underdog88]

Thanks guys!

Horfin- don't be sorry- we're cashing today

Beholdah- GL with the over.



Rams/Bucs o38.5+100

Jags/Broncos o36-105

Ravens team o21

Jets team o19.5

2 units each


Texans+260

Niners+435

Buffalo scores first +210

half unit each