nfl week four

[Mark's Moneymakers]

YEAR TO DATE

Best Bets (1-4)(-10.20 units)
Strong Plays (3-4)(-2.80 units)
Regular Plays (4-7)(-3.70 units)

Overall (8-15)(-16.70 units)



Another loss on Monday night for me. I am starting to think I should stick to just the colleges and give up this nfl crap, but for some reason even though I lose much more in the nfl than in college, I enjoy betting the nfl more. I guess it must be because I suck at it and enjoy the challenge….I guess. Let’s try this again.


Miami -4 vs Oakland (best bet)…………..Can this Miami team be this bad? Can this Oakland team be that much improved? I would have to say the answer to both questions is no. Oakland started out 0-2 and got to play a very winnable game at home against Cleveland and they barely pulled it out. This week, Miami without a win yet, gets to play at home against a very weak team in Oakland. Miami’s season might already be over, but this is a very important game for them…maybe one of the only winnable ones I see and they must take advantage of it. Trent Green is familiar with Oakland after having played in that division for a number of years, so I expect him to do well. The Dolphins should know Culpeppers weaknesses and be able to force him into some mistakes. I definitely feel Miami gets their first win, I just home it is not by three.

Chicago -3 vs Detroit (best bet)………..Is Chicago really that bad? Is Detroit at 2-1 really a winning team? The answer is no to both questions….sound familiar? Grossman sucks, no doubt about that, but Philly lit up Detroit’s defense, so even Grossman should have some success against it. Yes I do think the Bears are over rated, but I don’t see them being 1-3 while the Lions are 3-1. I think Grossman will find a way to keep the Lions in this thing, but I have to take my chances only laying three points with the better team here.

Pittsburgh -6 vs Arizona (strong play)…………As much as I hate the Steelers, you have to give them credit where credit is due. I did not think they were that great of a team going into last week, but I have changed my mind. This is a dangerous game for them at Arizona, but the way the Steelers are playing in all facets of the game, they should come out winners again. Zona is one of those teams in recent years who you think have a ton of potential, but always disappoint. I don’t think Pittsburgh dominates this game like they have the first three, but we only need them to win by a touchdown. I like my chances. I am shocked the Steelers look this great after losing coach last season, but I am impressed so far.

Jets -3.5 vs Buffalo (strong play)………….Buffalo is bad. Buffalo has no offense. Buffalo has no defense. Buffalo has no QB this week. Jets should have some confidence after beating Miami last week, the game was not as close as the final score. Jets defense might be a little weak, but I don’t think the Bills have the players to take advantage of it. Jets should control this game and win by at least seven points.

I might come back and add the Giants +3 over Philly in the Sunday night game. I am not going to be fooled by last weeks outburst with the Eagles offense. I still think McNabb has issues and playing at the Giants after they went into a good looking Redskin team and won will not be easy. I guess I am holding off to see if I can get 3.5. When I can get that, I will post my play. If it holds at three or drops I will take a pass on this game.

Have a gut feeling Cincy +7 vs Pats is a very live home doggie on Monday night football as well. Will wait and watch that line too.



Good Luck Everybody!! I know I need some right now.

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by mark

Chicago -3 vs Detroit (best bet)………..Is Chicago really that bad? Is Detroit at 2-1 really a winning team? The answer is no to both questions….sound familiar? Grossman sucks, no doubt about that, but Philly lit up Detroit’s defense, so even Grossman should have some success against it. Yes I do think the Bears are over rated, but I don’t see them being 1-3 while the Lions are 3-1. I think Grossman will find a way to keep the Lions in this thing, but I have to take my chances only laying three points with the better team here.

GL to ya Mark on all your plays, but this one especially. My Bears are in real bad shape right now and I won't lay a cent on 'em until they start playing better. I caution you that the Bears D is very beat up. Tommie is out for the game (Dusty and Mike Brown already on IR) with Briggs and Vasher also hurting. Archuleta was wearing an air cast yesterday (presumably hurt himself missing a tackle). Not saying the Lions have the offense that the 'Boys do, but they are similar. Lions can't really run that well (Dallas suspect here as well) and just look to chuck the ball w/Kitna on most snaps. We all saw how well this worked for Dallas, as the D was always on the field and began to tire in the 2H, allowing Dallas to pile on the points. Kitna also has a better WR corps at his disposal than Romo right now as well. I shouldn't (but I will) even mention this, but I've seen no signs of Grossman to snap out of his funk, no matter how bad Lions' D is. He couldn't do shit against a below average SD secondary while Farve lit them up. When your only TD is to the back-up T in the first 3 games and have 6 picks already while continuing to make the same mistakes, these are very bad signs.
Like I said, I hope to hell you hit this pick, but my Bears scare me way too much right now to go anywhere near them.


Moose

[fitter]

BOL with chitown play...agree with the coach here. Grossman out.....Griese in...is that really a better QB??? Chitown D really hurting right now. O might just plain suck! Det. gets burned bad by Iggles....watch that blowout and cover next week system. JMO. I'll be on Det or no play. Chitown just isn't settled enough in my mind.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Agree with the Jets...disagree strongly on everything else...lol....GL anyway!