New England/Cincinnati Line

[Kevin]

Usually when a line comes out that looks fishy, I jump on the other side. Doing so has really treated me well over the past few years. What looks too good to be true usually is, right?

I find the Patriots line to be extremely low but I won't be jumping on the other side of this one. In fact, I can't hardly help myself from wanting to overplay this game. I won't because I don't have the balls, but I'm still going to make a play at -7 going against my fishy line theory.

Even worse, it "doubley" goes against my theory because I absolutely HATE laying points on a Monday night football game.

Lastly, it "tripley" goes against what I believe in because the public is banging the Pats to the tune of 70%.

Who do I think I am going against 3 principles I so much believe in? Not only am I taking NE at -7 I still want MORE action laying a TD.

My question to you is if you were the oddsmaker, what would you have set this line at?

Call me nutty, but based on what I've seen from both these teams this year, I'd have made this line NE laying -14!

The difference between a winning handicapper and a losing one is the ability to decipher what CAN happen vs. what SHOULD happen. i CAN'T see Cinci staying within a TD with their defense. I've watched every single NE game this year and I just can't see how Cinci can hang.

I think oddsmakers have made a big mistake here.

If this game loses, I will change my avatar to a square for a week. I'll deserve it if it loses because I'm going against everything I believe in handicapping-wise except my gut which I can't seem to overcome. (I have a big gut lol)

What would you have made this line?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I agree, Kevin....I jumped on this game at -6 for 4 Units an hour after Pinnacle put it up last Sunday Night, lol! I don't see how that Cincy defence limits Brady to anything under 40 points.

As for the line....I would have made it 9.5....because people still love the sexy names of Palmer and Johnson, even though they are not an elite football team overall...

[Daws1089]

to be honest, i dont have a clue what i would set this line at to get action on both sides. It seems to me that if their was a double digit home dog that everyone would be all over that. If cincy was +11 or something like that I dont think they would get enough on the pats. So maybe a line like +9 or +9.5 would get some more bettors on cincy. The only thing i can see here is a backdoor cover or the pats experiencing some major injury that opens the door for cincy, but no one can predict an injury. Cincy plays somewhat better at home in the jungle, but it still doesnt justify +7.

[Horfin]

I wish I could answer this question. Every week I try to set my own lines and then look at the lines and see what is up. I unfortunately saw this line before I wanted to. I would say that with NE wins against Buff, SD, and NYJ all by the exact same score of 38-14 and
Cincinnatis 27-20 win vs. Balt, the 52-47 loss at cleveland and the 24-21 loss to Seattle (the last two on the road), I'd say that you couldn't really set the line much higher than 7. The one thing the three NE opponents have in common is their defense is better than their offense (less so for NYJ and as for SD that is true so far this year). That being said, the question is if you can't beat NE with Defense can you beat them with Offense? NE hasn't really faced a true offensive team yet. The closest team is SD and they forgot how to rush and pass until last week. I would not be surprised to see a really low scoring game 20-17 17-14 range. But, also I would not be surprised to see a really high scoring game. You just don't see teams rattling off 38 points or more 4 times in a row. If I had set the line it would have been NE-6 or NE -7, probably nothing more. But unfortunately my opinion is tainted.

[Fish2006]

I say just take the over and don't worry about it. I mean, if you are already gonna be square, at least do so in a way that does not expose you to the BD cover

... then again, with a 53 total, who the F knows. Clearly they think there are going to be a lot of points on both sides. Might there be a nicely correlated play here taking the under AND NE (or the over AND Cinci) on a parlay card?

[birdsfan5]

I would say that 7 is just about right. IMO Cincinnati is going to score enough points to cover here. I see it being 28-28 with 2min to go and Tom drives them down the field for a FG.

[GamblinMan03]

I think the 7 points is perfect. Cincy is a tough home team and can put up the points to keep them in the game. This will be the toughest test so far this season for the Pats. Like birds said, I think it will be close late and I think either team can win it late.

I will be on Cincy but will wait until the line gets to maybe +7.5.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I don't see that close game happening. Cincy good at home. Which year? This year they looked awful against Baltimore in their only home game. Brady/Moss/Maroney vs Cincy defence or Palmer/Johnson/backup vs Pats defence. No contest IMO. No Rudi Johnson? Big problem. I'm not sure why everyone is thinking Cincy is a good team....whos buying into Johnson's hype? Might be the same reasoning on why Chicago was perceived as great before the Dallas game...people looking at previous years, instead of the present. They have not looked great in any of the 3 games they have played, going 1-2 (and really getting lucky in their only win). I don't see it. They are not even a .500 team, IMO. A gift at less than DD. this reminds me alot of the Dallas/Chicago game. One team is playing well, one isn't. One team is a good team, one isn't. Things will play out as expected, IMO. Belichek/Brady/Moss on MNF? Throwing your money away fading that, IMO. Belichek has also owned Lewis' Bungals the past two years as well, IN CINCY, not only covering the number in each game, but blowing them out, with similar personnel, although I would say the Bengals are worse, and Pats are better than last year (Moss)....I see more of the same on Monday...Pats owning Marvin Lewis.

Pats up 17 by half, then coast to 24 point win, IMO.
Let's say "38"-14, LOL!

[GamblinMan03]

Anyway, why are the Bengals getting their second home MNF game in 4 weeks? They didnt even make the playoffs last year. I said this before, switch the damn schedule up NFL.

[Billy Barooooooo]

Originally Posted by GamblinMan03

Anyway, why are the Bengals getting their second home MNF game in 4 weeks? They didnt even make the playoffs last year. I said this before, switch the damn schedule up NFL.

Hmm I would have to say it has something to do with NE!
Still should be a good game and when Cinncinati wins straight up everyone will wake up with a headache on Tuesday!

BB

[Billy Barooooooo]

Gamblin did you look at the card this week! WOW do not know what game I would replace it with they all look bad!!!!

Have a good one just giving you shit!


BB

[Horfin]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Let's say "38"-14, LOL!

[ncsucharlie]

another FISHY line I see is Green Bay -1 .. it moved from -2 to -1 at that. Anyone care to shed some light, I would have thought GB would be -4 to -6 or something around there.

[Shamrock]

Hey gents:

I havent been much help picking plays, so hope this helps you out on your NE/CIN game:

Rudi Johnson out for game......expect line movement. All you early jumpers are looking even better.

Good luck to all

PS - I thought this was going to be on of those NE -13 games.....i was way off, kind of like my season. Having a tough time this season, bengals, chargers and eagles killed me first three weeks.....

sham........

[Stifler's Mom]

Do you guys really honestly think there was any inkling of a chance of the Bengals opening around a 2 TD HOME DOG on MNF?

Of course not.

With that being said, I do however, believe that the public as a whole is having a HUGE HUGE overreaction to NE beating NYJ (a very weak team this season judging from what I've seen), SD (didn't they also lose to GB....who I'm still not sold on....plus the SD game was at home, in prime time, and NE had something to "prove", and SD has done nada this year) and pretty much the Bills backups (all the starters are hurt).

I think the problem is that "the public" is going on the quality of last year's teams, and not taking into account that NYJ was 10-6 last year, but they seem to suck this year, BUF was average last year, but is worse this year because of rebuilding the entire defense and a google plex of injuries already to guys they were counting on to fill holes left by the departure of many solid veterans, and SD clearly is not the team that dominated last year.

In short, NE has beaten up on 3 teams that have done NOTHING this season.

The Bengals are clearly better than the 3 teams I mentioned above if early season results are any indication....but it seems everyone is pretty much stuck on the fact that they gave up 51 points to the Browns, which sucks, but, they did OK at Seattle and vs Baltimore (on defense).

Now I am not saying the Bengals are better than NE, because they're not. I am saying they are clearly going to be the best team NE has faced this season. Now toss in the HUGE situational advantage they have in this one, trying to knock off the "unbeatable" Patriots at home on MNF. Then add in that for the Bengals, this is pretty much as close to a "must win" as a team can have this early in the year.

My guess is the Bengals show up this week....big time....and give the Brady Bunch all they can handle, and then some.

I definitely wouldn't be shocked if the Bengals win this outright. Not one bit.