NFL Week 4 - I suck

[Stifler's Mom]

LMAO at my record....

ATS 12-24 (-34.77 units)
dog ml 1-8 (-6.65 units)
total 13-32 (-41.42 units)

These are the 1pm games I decided on:

If you know what's good for you, you'll fade me, LOL

Miami Dolphins -3.5

Bad spot for Oakland. Miami is favored by this much here for a reason IMO. Cause Oakland takes far too many penalties and because they're in a tough spot, travelling west to east and playing an early game. Can't see OAK winning this matchup SU too often, so laying the -3.5 with the Dolphins.

Dallas Cowboys/St Louis Lambs under 47

I don't see STL being real competitive in this one, as indicated by the line of +13 or so. I'm not sure who will cover, but i am pretty sure this total is set too high. The Lambs haven't scored much all year, but they've played decently on defense. This is a really high total for the NFL, which normally requires both sides to put up some points. Don't see that happening here. 27-10, 28-13, 27-14, something like that sounds pretty close to me, none of which even threaten this number.

3 units each

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (-101)

The Falcons have played far better than their results would indicate. If not for a few mistakes, Atlanta could be 2-1, just like Houston. I see alot of line value here in taking the underachieving home dog against the over achieving road fave, as a SU Atlanta win is much easier for me to see than a Houston one.

Cleveland Browns +4 (-105)

This is a completely different team at home and with Derek Anderson at QB. Baltimore's defense hasn't played up to par IMO, which has been their strength since forever. I just don't seem them being able to blow out the Browns today in this divisional rivalry, as I don't like one bit what I've seen from the Ravens this year, from their 6 turnovers and being afraid to run the ball in obvious running situations on MNF in week 1, to allowing the Jets and Arizona to both almost come back and beat them after taking a large lead (both at home), while Cleveland showed the ability to fight back last week at Oakland, even though they were outplayed. The Brownies give em hell this week IMO and win this one outright....

Minnesota Viqueens +2 (-105)

Green Bay is IMO so overrated at this point it's ridiculous. Favre has never done well in domes either. I could be missing the boat on this one if GB is as good as their record would indicate, but i don't see it, and I see no way GB should be a road fave here.

Buffalo Bills +3 (+106)

I've given my thoughts on this one in some other threads. How NYJ can be a road fave is confusing to me, no matter who they're playing. I just think they're bad. Once again, maybe I'm an idiot and the Jets are free money today, who knows....but I say BUF gets win #1 today at home against a team no better than they are. Getting routed @ PIT and @ NE are to be expected, and IMO BUF just can't be judged by those games.

2 units each

dog ML plays to go along with the dogs of less than +7

Atlanta Falcons +125
Cleveland Brownies +190
Minnesota Viqueens +110
Buffalo Bills +168

1 unit each

[Ming the Merciless]

GL Stiffy! With ya on all those.

[Underdog88]

GL today Stif.... time to see what Edwards is made of

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

LMAO at my record....

ATS 12-24 (-34.77 units)
dog ml 1-8 (-6.65 units)
total 13-32 (-41.42 units)

These are the 1pm games I decided on:

If you know what's good for you, you'll fade me, LOL

Miami Dolphins -3.5

Bad spot for Oakland. Miami is favored by this much here for a reason IMO. Cause Oakland takes far too many penalties and because they're in a tough spot, travelling west to east and playing an early game. Can't see OAK winning this matchup SU too often, so laying the -3.5 with the Dolphins.

Dallas Cowboys/St Louis Lambs under 47

I don't see STL being real competitive in this one, as indicated by the line of +13 or so. I'm not sure who will cover, but i am pretty sure this total is set too high. The Lambs haven't scored much all year, but they've played decently on defense. This is a really high total for the NFL, which normally requires both sides to put up some points. Don't see that happening here. 27-10, 28-13, 27-14, something like that sounds pretty close to me, none of which even threaten this number.

3 units each

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (-101)

The Falcons have played far better than their results would indicate. If not for a few mistakes, Atlanta could be 2-1, just like Houston. I see alot of line value here in taking the underachieving home dog against the over achieving road fave, as a SU Atlanta win is much easier for me to see than a Houston one.

Cleveland Browns +4 (-105)

This is a completely different team at home and with Derek Anderson at QB. Baltimore's defense hasn't played up to par IMO, which has been their strength since forever. I just don't seem them being able to blow out the Browns today in this divisional rivalry, as I don't like one bit what I've seen from the Ravens this year, from their 6 turnovers and being afraid to run the ball in obvious running situations on MNF in week 1, to allowing the Jets and Arizona to both almost come back and beat them after taking a large lead (both at home), while Cleveland showed the ability to fight back last week at Oakland, even though they were outplayed. The Brownies give em hell this week IMO and win this one outright....

Minnesota Viqueens +2 (-105)

Green Bay is IMO so overrated at this point it's ridiculous. Favre has never done well in domes either. I could be missing the boat on this one if GB is as good as their record would indicate, but i don't see it, and I see no way GB should be a road fave here.

Buffalo Bills +3 (+106)

I've given my thoughts on this one in some other threads. How NYJ can be a road fave is confusing to me, no matter who they're playing. I just think they're bad. Once again, maybe I'm an idiot and the Jets are free money today, who knows....but I say BUF gets win #1 today at home against a team no better than they are. Getting routed @ PIT and @ NE are to be expected, and IMO BUF just can't be judged by those games.

2 units each

dog ML plays to go along with the dogs of less than +7

Atlanta Falcons +125
Cleveland Brownies +190
Minnesota Viqueens +110
Buffalo Bills +168

1 unit each

We will both suck then, because I have most of your card.... Under, Minn, Cle, Atl. Buffalo has stolen tons of my $$ this year including last week when they killed my teaser card in Vegas.

GL

[homedawg]

GL Stif

[FlyersFan]

sorry in advance for the MIN and ATL losses. those you can pin squarely on me. i played them both today (only 2 plays) for some odd reason. i swore off ever betting the NFL again because my record makes you look like a legend, but felt compelled to toss a chicken dinner on both. GL!.....we'll need it....

[birdsfan5]

GL Stif

[Stifler's Mom]

Carolina Panthers -3 (+100)
KC Chiefs +12.5 (-105)

3 units each

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-120)
SF 49ers +2.5

2 units each

Arizona Cardinals ML +230
SF 49ers ML +115

1 unit each

[Underdog88]

Nice hits on those early moneylines

[Touchdown]

Nice hit man. Congrat.

[Fish2006]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Carolina Panthers -3 (+100)
KC Chiefs +12.5 (-105)

3 units each

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-120)
SF 49ers +2.5

2 units each

Arizona Cardinals ML +230
SF 49ers ML +115

1 unit each

Class project - run your back-testing of well-researched, anti-public, home dogs, but only from week 4 forward. I only ask because it seems like there is too much volatility to know much of anything until about week 4 in the season. I could be VERY wrong, and probably am, but I figure it is worth looking at if we are going to look at systems.

[Stifler's Mom]

One more home dog for the day:

NY Giants +3

2 units

NY Giants ML +115

1 unit

Was waiting all day for the +3. I don't know that it matters, but for whatever it's worth, I got it. Hey, ya never know....if someone's gonna give me +3 for the same price I'd have to pay for +2 or +2.5 elsewhere, I'm takin in, LOL

GO G'MEN

[Larry]

Looks like you got some back today, good job!

Now let's hit with the Gmen!!

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Fish2006

Class project - run your back-testing of well-researched, anti-public, home dogs, but only from week 4 forward. I only ask because it seems like there is too much volatility to know much of anything until about week 4 in the season. I could be VERY wrong, and probably am, but I figure it is worth looking at if we are going to look at systems.

The last two years, I believe, they have SUCKED ASS. Dogs in general have in the NFL. This year starting to look a little different.

[Kevin]

Way to finish strong!