HoosierDaddy First Play of Year/Analysis

[HoosierDaddy]

Hello everybody. I used to post sporadically on the old board, and have finally found my way to this one. Signed back up to 5Dimes through this site several weeks ago...

Tonight's game actually seems like the toughest MNF game yet. The way I see it, you have a couple of key variables here:

1. Trent Edwards. I was very impressed with his performance last week against an underwhelming Jet Defense which, for some reason, decided not to blitz often and rattle the young QB. He seemed to have a lot of poise, and his throws looked sharp and accurate (Evans did not help him on the INT at all).

But, how does he respond as starting QB on a huge MNF game for the franchise against a stronger defense that WILL apply much more pressure on him? Dallas D, which has gotten much healthier recently (Newman's retun was huge) has looked better, albeit against weak offenses (Chicago and Rams).

2. Does Dallas look ahead? Quite frankly, the ONLY two teams that I feel comfortable in these kinds of spots are New England and Indy. BB simply doesn't let the team lose focus, and I don't think Peyton does either. Dallas is a cut below that level right now, and it's really difficult to say if they are looking past Buffalo and onto next week's game against the Pats.

The one thing Dallas has going here is that Romo seems to love playing under the spotlight (save the Seattle miscue and the New Orleans game from last year). which leads me to my 3rd variable:

3. Can Buffalo pressure him but still keep him in the pocket? The way to rattle/beat Romo is by forcing him to make pocket throws. I don't know if Buffalo's defense can contain him in the pocket..I haven't seen too many of their games.

Right now, my lean is Buffalo +7 for the FIRST HALF. Dallas has been wearing teams down, but have not gotten off to blazing starts. Couple that with what should be a RABID Buffalo home crowd, and I can see Buffalo staying toe-to-toe with them in the first half.

At this point, I don't have a good enough feel on Edwards to take Buffalo at +10 for the game.

Public Posting Record: 0-0 for 0 units.

[Kevin]

Welcome back Hoosier!

You were missed!

[JB]

I think I may tail here Hoosier.
I was thinking of taking Buffalo +10 anyway...but after your post I did some looking

Week 1 - Dallas led 17-16 at the half. Won 45-35
Week 2 - Dallas led 10-6 at the half. Won 37-20
Week 3 - Dallas and Chicago where tied 3-3. Dallas won 34-10
Week 4 - Dallas led 14-7 at the half. Won 35-7

Gotta kinda like any of these really

Buffalo First Half
Dallas game bet
2nd Half OVER

I won't take Dallas....so think I might play the first half and maybe try the 2nd Half over also depending on how the game goes.

[Underdog88]

Solid reasoning.... GL Hoosier

[HoosierDaddy]

Thanks guys...GL to you too. Should be fun with this crowd tonight.

Can tell you right now that I will probably be making an additional small play on the halftime prop "will there be a score in the first 7:30 of the 2nd half". It's a kooky prop, but is usually good value and seems to hit fairly well.

[JB]

Great job Hoosier!