NFL Week 6 Picks

[cavorca12]

Hey guys. Former member of the old site, but this is my first post on predictem. Gotta say I was pretty happy to find this... Anyway, here are my week 6 picks.

Tennessee at Tampa Bay
Tennessee +3

Philadelphia at New York Jets
Philadelphia -3.5

St. Louis at Baltimore
St. Louis +9.5

Houston at Jacksonville
Houston +6.5

Washington at Green Bay
Washington +3

Miami at Cleveland
Cleveland -4

Oakland at San Diego
San Diego -9.5


Got some of these lines a day or 2 ago (TN, Phi, STL), some today. No real time for write-ups, but BOL to everybody today.

NFL YTD: 0 - 0

[Larry]

Glad you found us. GL today!

[cavorca12]

3-2-2 on the week. Gladly take the push on TN with Collins finishing that game...whew. Washington had 7 drops, or something rediculous like that, and some stupid turnovers. The weather was bad and things happen, but I think they were the better team. Maybe there will be some added line value next week v AZ. Houston just got handled by a batter Jax team, and I underestimated the Bal D with Rolle back v STL. Philly managed to get by. Cleveland's O is better than people think, with Winslow and Edwards playing very very well thus far. The San Diego LT's beat an Oakland team that was just happy to be in 1st in the division. I have to admit though, I was nervous after CBS switched to show a highlight of the game and the announcer led off the segment with something like "What on earth was Phillip Rivers thinking" as he threw a pick directly to an Oak DB. It seems like SD is more reliant on LT than last year.

I'm still checking out the NYG v ATL MNF game. It looks like the NYG are statistically and strategically a good pick, but a whole lot of good situational factors favor ATL. I don't see a lot of value either way, but I'll probably play something small for fun. The under doesn't look so bad, but I'll have to check it out.

[cavorca12]

Just checked the MNF line and it has now jumped to -5 (-110). Not sure how exact this is, but I see that about 90% is on the NYG line. Also, about 60% is on the over, but my book dropped it from 44 to 43.5.

I took the NYG this morning at -4 (-120) for a half unit. Figured there was a good chance the line would move again, was leaning NYG, and was hesitant to play them at more than -4. I think they are more than -4 better than ATL, and it's a matter of them showing up. Here's my thoughts on the game:

The NYG have a vet coach who has been with the team for a while in Coughlin, while ATL has Petrino in his first year in the NFL, first MNF game, dealing with a grumpy team, ect. That leads me to favor the statistical advantage for the NYG over the fairly significant situational aspects that pretty much all favor ATL and think that there is a better chance the NYG show up and play to their ability instead of having a let down. After Dallas last week, Coughlin has a great example to display for his team of how easy it can be to overlook a weaker team.

Not totally sure what to make of the line, and I'd be pretty hesitant to put more on the NYG at -5 since the letdown situation is still in my mind. I'm going to research the total a bit more, because the under looks pretty appealing IMO.

New York Giants -4 (-120) for 0.5 Unit

[cavorca12]

Updated YTD, 4-2-2 for +1.35 Units.