JML Week 7 NFL >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Week 6: 7-1, +14.39 Units

NFL YTD: 32-16. +48.06 Units


Bills +4 -123 vs Ravens
Still don't trust Baltimore's offence to lay points on the road. Like the home dog Bills who are a scrappy team, and have difference makers on special teams. Buffalo's coming off a bye week, and should have some confidence after giving Dallas all they could handle. Buffalo's going to be all over McGahee, and they will likely crowd the line in order to stop him, and make Boller beat them. The Ravens are a joke, beating bottom-feeders, and losing to Cleveland/Cincy. They are not a contender that should lay a FG+. Bills win outright in a close, low-scoring game.

Patriots -14 -122 vs Dolphins
Pinnys opening line. No comment on the game! But an easy, easy play for me once again. It's like free money this year. I'm naming my new boat "Brady". lmao.

Bucs +3 -128 vs Lions
Getting points facing the worst defence in the NFL. Bucs are much better than the brutal Lions on the defensive side of the ball, and Garcia has been playing smart at QB for the Bucs, just plain getting it done (5 TDs/0 INT/104 Rtg). Detroit should not be giving points to a good team like TB. Don't understand this one, as defense usually dictates games, and we have the 5th ranked Bucs against a Lions team that is only marginally better than Cincy for worst. Also...the one and only perceived strength of the Lions, the passing game (although Kitna hasn't exactly looked great lately) faces a Bucs defence that is 8th best against the pass, so they won't be pushovers in that department. TB's injuries don't scare me, I'll take the much better team as a dog.

Chiefs +3 -125 vs Raiders
Tailing Horfin...but I liked this game as well at first glance...taking the better team, getting a FG.

Steelers -3 -122 vs Broncos
I'll back Joe Public with the Steelers this week. Denver is a horrible team, and are still getting respect because of their past and their coach. If that Denver personnel was wearing a traditionally bad team's uniforms this week playing the hot Steelers, the line would be closer to a TD, IMO. Steelers have been dominant in every game, except for that one bad spot in Zona. We know how Denver can't stop the run for ****...and I hammered the Chargers when they played Denver because of this....well nobody runs the ball like the Steelers (2nd in the NFL), so you would have to expect a similar game to the SD result, and a BIG day for Willie Parker. This is what Big Ben and Pitt do...run the ball, and play action passes.....one teams strength against one teams weekness.. This is also a mismatch on the other side of the ball, with Cutler, and the rest of Denver's offence struggling (15 PPG, 5th worst in the NFL) having to face the NFL's best defence (only giving up 9.4 PPG...best by FAR). If not for two lucky FG wins by Denver, this is talked about being the worst team in the NFL. Cutler's been ****, and was maybe rushed into the starters role by default. I know the Steelers haven't had a hard schedule yet, but they are getting it done against these bad teams, and should roll again this week against another bad one, in a similar fashion to the Chargers game. Denver also does not cover **** at home the past couple years, so laying the FG doesn't worry me too much as I see DD win. Hines Ward back, and Champ Bailey with a less than 100% quadricep, might have an influence on that passing game, but it is not why Pitt will win. Pitt's leader on defence, Polamalu also back!


Also looking at Arizona but I'd love to get the 10.


4 Units Each


GL all....

[Underdog88]

I had to look twice, 3 dogs this week, possibly 4! You really seem to have a grasp on the NFL this season, & you're keeping me off the Donkeys. Hope it continues for you, GL as always

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

LOL...thanks UD...yeah, I know I have a rep of backing favs, but it's been about 50/50 with favs/dogs, public/sharp plays...doesn't matter to me, as long as it's a winner... just gotta call 'em as I see 'em...and that's been working!

Might tail you on that Buffalo under...can't see many points in that one....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Adding two more...decided to lay off the total plays, as I generally blow at totals, lol...but I was looking at Buffalo Under and Washington Under...


Adding...

Cardinals +9 -114 vs Redskins
Made the play. Fading those Skins O-line injuries, Cards keep this close in a low scoring game, IMO. Warner looks to be starting start now, so we probably don't even have to worry about Rattay. WR Boldin makes his return as well. Way too many points, should be 3/4.

Bears +6.5 -115 vs Eagles
Well...maybe this isn't a no-play game. lol. I gotta do it on principle when a team like Philly lays a TD. What a ******* joke. Backing a bad team? Sure....but also fading an equally bad team, getting nearly a TD. The Bears suck...but Philly does as well, and maybe more with that horrible O-line. I see the Bears all over McNabb on Sunday. The Eagles have one decent win over the hapless Lions, and squeaked by noodle-arm and the Jets last week, where they were a dropped pass from losing outright...other than that they have been embarrased by the Giants, and lost the rest of their schedule. Laying nearly a TD with that team? Insane, IMO. The Bears also get a free TD out of hester every game or two. lol. This is the first Bears line that actually makes sense to me...finally getting a decent amount of points, instead of laying them all year.

4 Units Each


That's it...GL

[TheBeholdah]

gl jml,you've been the man this year with the nfl. i do really disagree with you about the eagles, theyt arent as bad as you say. they were without westbrook and the oline was more banged up in the giant game, they should have blown out the jets last week. they were moving the ball well all game. tthe bears defense is looking like swiss cheese right now, peterson had 73, 67, and 35 yard td runs and even jackson had a 70 yd td pass. even andy reid will realize he has to give it to westbrook. bears also had some big scoring plays last week with the offense showing some life but do you really see griese having another monster day on the road here? the eagles are the better team imo. dawkins and sheppard may be back to give the D a boost too. sorry if it seems like i'm just bashing your play, just offering the opposing opinion as i generally always agree with your plays. gl with the slate

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks Beh....yeah, I don't know....I could be wrong, but I really see Chicago winning that game for some reason. Take away that Detroit game, and Philly has scored 2 TDs in the past 4 games, and could only score 16 points (1 TD) against the Jets defence even with superstar Westbrook. Too many points IMO...close game. But yeah the Bears blow...lol.

[Daws1089]

yea i gotta disagree on the bears too. Bears run game does not exist and you can't be one dimensional against the eagles defense. I certainly could not trust greise against the eagles defense on the road. lito shepard is back which will help tons, and i don't think the eagles o-line is nearly as bad as you think they are. But with the way the offense has sputtered, maybe the pts are the way to go. i dont know. GL with everything this weekend.

[birdsfan5]

Gl JML

[NittanyLions94]

GL JML, I'll be on the Steelers but waiting to see if I have to buy the hook first. I know it's a lost cause, but hey, weirder things have happened

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks!

Nittnay....Steelers a public play, so I doubt you'll get a free hook...I got it early because it was such a public play...to protect a move to 4....GL!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Surprised to see so many people backing Detroit and their defence...guess I'm missing something


Lots of dogs for me today, so I'm adding a favs teaser...


Ravens/Bills UNDER 41.5
Cowboys -2.5
Steelers +3
+150


4 Units


GL!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

3-1 for the early games
Teaser still going...

I had a feeling I was on the wrong side of Detroit/TB this morning...oh well....but the Pats offence cruises again!! Loving the Bills getting the outright win too...looked like they were going to blow it at the end again!

Watching the Dallas game...hopefully it's a good one...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Updating for Sunday Night, after another good day, now up 60 Units


Week 7 afternoon: 5-1, +12.64
NFL YTD: 37-17. +60.70 Units


I was going to add some units onto the Steelers play, as it is the best play of the week, IMO, but my teaser is still alive, so I will stick with what I have pending... (Steelers -3, -122 & Steelers +3 +150)

[FlyersFan]

nice job this week again JML....freeking i had the bears as the last team in a 10 teamer and changed it to the rams....ugghhhhhhhhh...i am kicking myself.....

[homedawg]

the canadian takin' over the NFL...nice work!!! shouldn't be long before the nfl moves north...