***My Quest to Make a Profit, NFL Week 7*** - Sports Betting Forums

Underdog88 · #1 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 12:57 PM

NFL 75-80-3 -.87 units

Been a back & forth battle, I'm hoping to come out ahead when all is said & done this week

Eagles-5

Bengals/Jets o47

Bills/Ravens u34.5

Minny/Dallas u46.5-105

Lions-2.5-105

Rams+8+100

Niners+9+100

3 units each

Bills+135
Redskins-390
Cowboys-460
Dolphins+24.5-420
Eagles-255
Broncos+3.5-115

1 to win 10.58 units

Eagles- I actually played the Eagles @ 4.5, but that line is no longer available so I'm posting the 5. Picking the winner of the game, as the Bears are in shambles. Going with the better defense, better offense at home laying less than a TD. Griese's numbers are better than Grossman's, but he faced the 22nd ranked Packers & Vikings 32nd ranked pass D. The Eagles are ranked #9, & opposing QB's have a 73.3 qb rating. The Bears rushing attack is not that threatening either, & they face a blitzing D that's allowing just 3.8 ypc. Donavan will be facing the 23rd D vs. the pass, & last week he was able to establish Reggie Brown as a threat. IMO that was huge, as now in addition to Westbrook out of the backfield (always the #1 target), the Bears will have to keep an eye on Curtis & Brown. Westbrook will also be facing the Bears #26 rush D, which is allowing 4.6 ypc & 134 per game! In short I think Philly has a better chance of moving the ball than the Bears do. 2 things that could cause this play toflame out... Turnovers & Hester returning 2 for touchdowns. I think Westbrook carving the Bears up is more likely.

Bengals over- Thoughts in the discussion thread, but it's basically a play on the Bengals offense vs. a terrible D, & a play against the horrid run D of the Bengals. I think if there's a game where the Cincy wrs run a clinic, it's this one. I've had the displeasure of watching the Jets play in their last 3 games, & that secondary is lost. If Mangini is smart, Thomas Jones will get 25+ carries, & Pennington will throw the ball 22 times (8 as screens). This play hinges on the Jets being able to counter, as I have Cincy putting up 30 points in this one.

Buffalo under- Edwards at the helm again this week, & it's looking like he may be for the remainder of the season. While I think it's the best move, I do have my concerns about him facing this D. He is doing great IMO for a rookie, & has managed to make te Royal a more viable option. IMO that's huge, as the Bills simple don't have the talent yet at wr to consistently get open. Lynch is playing better every week, & I would expect plenty of touches for him. The Bills haven't taken a shot downfield damn near the whole season, & I would expect yet another conservative gameplan from Jauron this week. While I would love to think this offense will explode, given what's happened so far this season (the Buffalo offense has scored more than 7 pts in just 1 game this season, & is averaging a shade over 9 ppg), I don't expect that to happen. No way in hell would I lay pts with Baltimore on the road right now, but I do think this is the best defense the Bills have faced this season, even with McAllister out. While I think Edwards is good enough to move the chains, I do think the Bills will have continued trouble finding the endzone. For the Ravens, Boller gets the nod for this joke of an offense. How do you like Willis now, Ravens? 25 carries for 61 yards vs. the Rams bwaahhaahahahah. While I'm sure he'll be motivated for this game, I think the Bills D will also have the motivation to hold him in check. I am very happy with the Buffalo run D the past 2 weeks- 60 yards allowed vs. the Jets & 76 vs. Dallas (just 3.5 ypc allowed). As I said before, they are weak at the LB position, which allows mismatches when you have a good receiving TE, but Heap looks to be out for this week's game. I think the Bills D will key in oin Willis & Boller + the Ravens passing game isn't enough to score tds on the Bills. I expect a bunch of running on both sides, which helps keep the clock running. Throw in Moorman & his ability to pin the opposition, & don't think there will be too many short fields in this one. Lean to the Bills, but because of the inexperience offensively vs. a formidable D, I think the under is the best option.

Will add them as I play em

TheBeholdah · #2 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:40 PM

my card is near identical , gl on the quest udogg

birdsfan5 · #3 (**permalink**) 10-20-2007, 10:56 PM

GL Underdog

NittanyLions94 · #4 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 12:26 AM

GL UD

Underdog88 · #5 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 01:40 AM

Thanks Beholdah, Birds & Nitts.... GL to you all

Underdog88 · #6 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 03:00 PM

Raiders-120

2 units

Underdog88 · #7 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 04:40 PM

Bengals team o13.5-115 2ndh
Raiders-.5 2ndh-105
Oak/KC o17 2ndh
Broncos+3.5

1 to win 12.14 units

Q-Unit · #8 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 06:24 PM

with ya on the broncs

Underdog88 · #9 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 06:51 PM

Thanks Q. Well since a failed 2pt conversion killed one parlay, & the Eagles collapse ruined another, I have to add the Donkeys straight. 4-5 -.7 units, wtf I am playing totals from now on.

Broncos+4.5-110

Den/Pitt o37.5+100

3 units each

Underdog88 · #10 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 06:58 PM

Donkeys+200

1 unit

Underdog88 · #11 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 09:02 PM

Donkeys+243 2ndh

Steelers team total u13+100 2ndh

1 unit each

Underdog88 · #12 (**permalink**) 10-21-2007, 10:30 PM

Couldn't leave well enough alone LoL.... 3-2 +6 units for the late one

Underdog88 · #13 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 05:42 PM

MNF plays....

Colts-3-110

3 units

Colts team o24

Colts-156

1 unit each

Although this goes against my usual betting pattern (playing a road fave, & usually fading the Colts on the road ats), I do think the Colts win tonight, so I'm laying the chalk. Everyone is talking about the Jags D, but Indy is ranked higher overall. Jax has the advantage in the run game (as Indy allows 4.2 ypc), but if Indy gets ahead, the Jags will have to throw. I'm not saying Garrard isn't good, I think he's been very efficient, but look at the defenses he's played. Denver was the only solid pass D, & he threw for just 154 yards. Indy is the #2 pass defense in the league, I think they can hold Jax down. As for the Jax pass D, they have held opponents qbs to just 204 yards passing & a qb rating around 84. Pretty impressive, until you look at who they've faced. Tenn, Atl, Den, KC & Houston? Peyton & co are 3x the passing attack of any of these teams. Another thing that jumped out at me is that the Jags have been winning by causing turnovers. They have benifitted from 3 to's in each of their last 3 games. Indy is usually pretty good at protecting the ball, so I think that could minimize short fields caused by turning the ball over. I have Indy scoring 27+, so I'm playing the team total as well. Lean to the over, but I think the Colts will likely try to kill clock & keep the Jags run game from wearing down their D, plus Peyton is the best manager of the gameclock I've ever seen. I may jump in at the half if there's value. GLTA tonight, should be a very entertaining game