week eight

[yomonte]

11-12 -2.20 MNF pending

StL +3 -115

They can't lose every game can they. Home dogs of three are doing fine and so are home teams with a line of 43 1/2 or higher.

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Using opening lines from SI

Lines of 1: Fav is 6-2 road is 7-1
Lines of 2 and 2 1/2: Home team is 4-1 Under is 4-1
Lines of 3: Dog is 14-5 with 5 pushes
Lines of 4: Over is 3-0
Lines of 5 and 5 1/2: Dog is 5-1
Lines of 6: Over is 6-2
Lines of 7 and 7 1/2: Fav is 4-1
Lines of 9: Dog is 4-1
Lines of 9 1/2: Fav is 2-0
Lines of 9 1/2 and 10: Home is 5-0
Lines of 9 1/2 to 11: Home is 8-2
Lines of 10 1/2 to 11 1/2: Under is 5-0
Lines of 10 1/2 to 13: Under is 6-1
Lines of 14 or higher: Fav and Over 3-0

Home dogs that open at 3 are 9-2 with 8 winning SU. When the line moves down, 5-0

All games covered opening and closing lines with 3 exceptions. Week 5, Stl opened at +1 and closed at +3 1/2. Ariz won by 3. Week 7, Dallas pushed opening (-10) and covered closing (-9 1/2). Week 6 Washington covered opening (+3 1/2) and pushed closing (+3)

4 times a line moved a fav to a dog and the road team won all 4. The original fav is 2-2

Games have gone ov or un open and closing lines with 3 exceptions.

MNF: road team is 4-2-1 Under 4-2

Sunday late game: Over is 6-1

Totals of 33 1/2 to 35: Under is 6-1 Road 5-2
Totals of 33 1/2 to 35 1/2: Dog is 8-1
Totals of 36 1/2 to 37 1/2: Dog is 6-2 Road 5-3
Totals of 38: Home is 5-2
Totals of 38 1/2 and 39: Over is 4-1
Totals of 39 to 40 1/2: Road is 12-3
Totals of 39 1/2: Road is 5-1 Dog is 5-1`
Totals of 41: Under is 4-1
Totals of 42: Dog is 4-2
Totals of 43 1/2 to 44 1/2: Home is 7-1
Totals of 43 1/2 to 51 1/2: Home is 18-4
Totals of 46 1/2 to 51 1/2: Home is 7-0

The half point only came into play if you bought the half point on the line of 3 with the exceptions of week 3 when Houston pushed the opening line vs Indy-6. I was out of town and didn't record closing lines that week, but I would think Indy didn't go to 5 1/2. Week 7Minn pushed opening for a win and buying the half would have given you a push on the closing line Buying the half point on any other line would have been needless. Only 4 times of the 20 lines of 3 did the fav cover. Those would be Houston week 1, Dallas week 2, Tampa Bay week 3 and Philly week 6. Using opening lines from SI, the dog is 13-4 with 5 pushes. Also, if your thinking of buying the line of three and worried about the line moving, only 7 of the 20 moved off the 3. Three went to 2 and 2 1/2 in week 4 where the dogs won SU. Week 5, two went to 3 1/2 and 4 where the dog won SU and the other dog covered. In week 6, one game went from 3 to 1 and the dog covered while another went to 4 and the fave covered. In week 2, Dallas on the road at Miami went to 3 1/2 and Dallas covered handily (ya'll know I cain't spell handily, don't even look like a real word). Now, if you bought the 1/2 point on the dog at +3, it would have helped 5 times and and 4 times you would have lost and the higher juice. But you would have went 18-4. Any other line, there ws no need with two exceptions posted above.

[yomonte]

PST to PST: HF 2 RF 1 Un 3
PST to MST: HD 1 RD 2 Ov 2 Un 1
PST to CST: HF 1 HD 1 RD 1 Ov 2 Un 1
PST to EST: HF 3 RD 1 Ov 3 Un 1
MST to PST: Push 1 Un 1
MST to MST: Hey QuickNick!
MST to CST: RF 1 Ov 1
MST to EST: HF 1 HD 1 RD 2 Ov 3 Un 1
CST to PST: HF 2 RD 4 Ov 3 Un 3
CST to MST: HD 1 Ov 1
CST to CST: HF 3 RF 1 RD Push 1 Ov 4 Un 5
CST to EST: HF 6 RF 1 HD 4 RD 4 Push 1 Ov 9 Un 7
EST to PST: HF 1 HD 1 RD 2 Ov 3 Un 1
EST to MST: HD 1 RD 2 Ov 1 Un 2
EST to CST: HF 2 RF 3 HD 2 RD 5 Push 1 Ov 5 Un 8
EST to EST: HF 16 RF 9 HD 6 RD 9 Push 2 Ov 16 Un 25

Peace out ya bassards

[yomonte]

Oly has the ****tiest lines for a dog player. Sure, I play alot of favs, probably at a 90% clip. But I got my eye on a dog and everybody has it at 9 while Oly has it at 7 1/2. And not just that game but all the fkn games. I'm also waiting on Oly to move their line on Philly like every other book but they go to -1 1/2 when others go off the -1 to a pick or +1.

[Underdog88]

GL Yo! Early lean to the Rams as well

[yomonte]

Whaddup UDog. StL hasn't won or covered a spread all year. Home dogs of three are doing well tho.

12-12 -1.15

Indy -6 1/2 -110

Peyton vs Testeverde. Less than TD, I'll take it all day long. Was Vinny a fluke last week. I think so

[hodown]

gl yo, is vinnie playing or carr?

[yomonte]

LOL Hodown, I have no idea. Played it soley on the line and Car sucking. This line is whacked.

[yomonte]

Looks like Carr is getting the nod.

[yomonte]

Of the 8 games that opened at 1, the home dog is 0-5. The home team is 1-7. I was going to wait, and I should, but I seen Oly go to 1 1/2 only to come back to one. I might be looking at a wrong line move. Minn has A Peterson and McNabb got sacked 12 times which speaks volumes about his O line. Minn has only covered twice this year. At home with the next Tomlinson and they are a dog.

Philly -1 -110

[yomonte]

Garrard out for Jax. Garcia and the hard hitting Bucs should rattle the **** out of Jax. Alot of books have it TB -4 1/2. Got it at Oly at 3 1/2. Just pick the winner and they will cover.

TB -3 1/2

[yomonte]

According to Sonny Jurgenson on the news just awhile ago, Washington is the only team Tom Brady hasn't beaten. I wonder if Wash ever beat Brady. Probably never played each other LOL. Key word, Brady, not NE

[yomonte]

HoD, looks like Vinny is getting the nod for Sunday. I still didn't know at the time of my post tho. I post more wrong **** that is right than....AH Nevermind

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by yomonte

According to Sonny Jurgenson on the news just awhile ago, Washington is the only team Tom Brady hasn't beaten. I wonder if Wash ever beat Brady. Probably never played each other LOL. Key word, Brady, not NE

only regular season game with brady vs wash

[birdsfan5]

GL Yo

[yomonte]

HD, looks like Wash was favored in that game LMFAO

Wash team total un 16 -115

I feel they get behind early and play catch up.