JML Monday Night in Florida >>> - Sports Betting Forums

JohnnyMapleLeaf · #1 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 02:42 PM

Week 7 Sunday: 6-2, +11.72
NFL YTD: 38-18, +59.78 Units

Colts -3 -109 vs Jaguars - 2 Units
Spent all day trying to convince myself to play Jax. Have been looking at this game for hours, and I can't do it even after looking at public numbers/home field/last years result.

I have to go with my gut, and back Indy on this low number. Dungy is coming off a bye, and is getting 3 of his top 5 players back tonight (Addai/Harrison/Saunders). The passing game and the running game of Addai/Keith is scary. Manning is 4-0 ATS in his last 4 MNF games.

I would call the defences pretty even, with a slight edge to Indy, but on the other side of the ball...Jax have really not been able to put up points besides the Hou game (where they ran all over the Texans)....with Jax only scoring 15 PPG in the other 4 games this year...and methinks they will not be able to score with the Colts in this one, unless turnovers come into play, so a FG seems OK to me. I think Indy really wants to make a statement in prime-time to tell the Pats that they are still the best team in the NFL, and might put a hurting on the Jags, who are a nice little team, but not in the same class as Indy.

Enjoy the game, everyone

Touchdown · #2 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 02:59 PM

GL JML...I am leaning toward the COLTS as well. I don't see how the Jax can cover.

Whaleydog · #3 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 02:59 PM

Nice Job this Week JML....GL tonight w/Colts.....I know its a public play....but the public cant lose them all...I am on the Colts as well

bookiekilla · #4 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 04:27 PM

hate to be against you tonight

but as always..GL

JohnnyMapleLeaf · #5 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 04:31 PM

Thanks guys...we'll see what happens...I liked that Horfin was on Indy after the day he had. And you have to like being on the AFC team in a conference matchup!

We'll see what happens...hopefully it's another good game like last night!

Stifler's Mom · #6 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Thanks guys...we'll see what happens...I liked that Horfin was on Indy after the day he had. And you have to like being on the AFC team in a conference matchup!

We'll see what happens...hopefully it's another good game like last night!

Aren't these both AFC teams??

In any case, GL. You're having a great season

JohnnyMapleLeaf · #7 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 04:39 PM

Yup...lol, I was thinking of something else! lmao An AFC/MNF thing, and I forgot who they were playing!

Horfin · #8 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whaleydog

Nice Job this Week JML....GL tonight w/Colts.....I know its a public play....but the public cant lose them all...I am on the Colts as well

I think the public went 8-4 this weekend....could be wrong. Every-so-often they have good weeks.

JML I hope you win....becuase if you win I win.

IND plays games like this:
Feel the team out in the first half...First half should be close. Indy pulls away in the 2nd half.

Horfin

Underdog88 · #9 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 06:12 PM

GL JML, I agree completely

Stifler's Mom · #10 (**permalink**) 10-22-2007, 06:23 PM

In all reality, there weren't many games the public loaded up on this weekend one way or the other.

You really need to look for at least 65% or more to "fade" the public....or you're really not fading them, because there's no clear cut public choice.

3 games fell into that category this weekend:

Washington (68%) LOSS
Cincinnati (67%) WIN/PUSH (if you got the best line on NYJ of +7)
Pittsburgh (75%) LOSS

61% were on NE
64% were on NYG
64% were on KC

all of those won, but like I said, 60/40 or just a tad more isn't too strong of a public opinion.

Nothing else was even 60%.

The very best plays are 70% and more, but it seems to hold pretty true down to 65% more times than not. Below that, there's nothing to gain from fading a very slight public opinion of like 59% or 62% or something....