***Week 8 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Alright guys, I'm pumped to get this discussion going... we have a lot to talk about! I'm going to try & make sure every game gets touched at some point. Both side & total, as I think some of these totals could be solid, plus I went 4-0 on game totals last week, & I know Stif killed them a couple weeks ago. I just don't want to leave out any potential winners. Here's the homedogs...


Rams+3 vs. Browns

Miami+9 vs. Giants

Bengals+4 vs. Pitt

49ers+2.5 vs. Saints

Panthers(no line) vs. Indy

TB (nl) vs Jaguars


You can throw the Vikings in there as they opened as a dog & are now sitting at a pick. At first glance, taking some of these dogs look like suicide! No way in hell do I play Cincy. No f'n way, & I may be on the Steelers. Pitt off a loss & Cincy off a come from behind victory, Pitt's too good to lose b2b, & Cincy will have trouble stopping anything at this point. I was set to keep riding Bengals overs, but it's set pretty high at 48! I think the Rams have a very good shot at a win, as Bulger should be able to throw all over the Brown's 29th ranked pass D, which has allowed 17 tds so far this season. The Browns also have the 30th ranked run D & in 2 road games have given up 6 turnovers (0-2). I do think this could be a better over play, as the Rams are allowing 4 ypc. & a 2nd worst in the league 9 tds allowed on the ground. The total is set at 43.5, & I can see both teams scoring at least 21 points each. I don't know what to think about the Dolphins. They'll win a game this season, but boy will it be tough to play on them without Ronnie Brown. This line is inflated IMO, but it's still a play that would be tough to make. I think the total is set too high at 48, even though it's tough to play it when the Dolphins are involved. The Giants D is better than I suspected it would be, so I don't expect them to allow Lemon too much time in the pocket. I think there could be more fgs than tds here, & this is a spot where Miami will need to get to Eli. IMO they still have the players on D to potentially play a tough game, but damn there's been no evidence of it so far. The Saints have done nothing to deserve to be road faves. That Seattle game was perfect situation wise, & they could have lost last week to the Falcons. Alex Smith is healthy & will likely play, not sure how he can be any worse than Dilfer, who single handedly blew the cover last week with 2 ints & 2 fumbles lost. I think Gore could have himself a game this week. The Panthers line isn't out yet, but I'm sure it'll be too high. Indy off a convincing win on MNF. This could be a lookahed spot as the Pats are on deck. I'm think I'll need 7+ to play against the Colts though. Have to wait on Garrad's status for Jax, but they should be able to run on the Bucs.

Other plays that I like...

Raiders+9-125- Do the Titans deserve that high of a number?

Buffalo +125- Noodle arm. Lynch will terrorize the Jets this time around.

Redskins+16.5/ under



back later to add thoughts

[Daws1089]

just some things i've learned so far for this week. tavarius jackson broke a finger and may not play this week, which would be better for the vikings. kelly holcomb against his former team.

Also, I don't think Alex Smith is starting this week. Apparently Smith doesn't have confidence in his shoulder just yet and neither does Nolan. So look for Dilfer again.


Also, Jax on the road after a monday night game? I don't know if i like that.

[jd08]

Look for the Panthers to open as 6.5 or 7 point home dogs. It could be a good spot or a no play depending on how you look at it. I think Manning will carve up the Panthers patchwork secondary, but other than last night the Colts have won their last two road games by 2 points and 6 points. The Panthers are coming off the bye week but have been horrendous at home this year. I think I would lean towards no play in that one or maybe a very small bet on the Panthers as there will be no value in the Colts.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

****...I don't like ANY homedogs this week, except Minny.....and I'm actually on the Steelers already (couldn't believe the line was under a TD)....Bengals get one ****ty, lucky win over the awful Jets, and all of a sudden they will compete with the Steelers coming off a loss? I know the Steelers didn't look great in Denver, but Ben had a bad 1st half then turned it around nicely, and one Denver TD was that fumble return...love the Steelers to roll over one of the 5 worst teams in the league, and I only had to lay a FG when I bought the hook.

Also on the Saints laying less than a FG...Niners just plain don't have it this year, and Gore is less than 100% and questionable for this week...even if he goes, ankle injuries aren't the greatest things for RBs! If Dilfer, and a hobbled Gore beat me, then so be it, but I don't see it happening...

Also on the Bills amazingly getting a FG again, who are the Jets to be laying points to anyone...especially a playoff calibar team like Buffalo, hitting their stride. Like Stif says, if not for those unlucky wins against Denver & Dallas, this team is talked about in the 2nd tier of good teams in the AFC....and we are getting some great value on them again this week!

And, the Vikings look like a good play to me. I will continue to fade the Eagles....they blow, and Minny really could have gone into Dallas and won that game, if not for a few bad bounces. They only gave Peterson 12 f'ing carries....I expect them to realize that mistake, and pound him all day. And I agree...Holcomb is actually an upgrade if he goes! not sure why Minny isn't laying a FG against the Eagles. Philly has one good win under their belt this year...a home win against Detroit. Big deal...every other game they have been ****. I'll take this homedog.

Also looking at jumping off the NE train, and backing Washington, getting all those points with a very good defence and Skins secondary. NE has been all about the pass this year, so I think the Skins have a chance if they can control the Moss and Brady show to a degree, and cover that huge number. 17 was about right against the Dolphins, but not against Washington, IMO.

Hmmmm...Indy laying less than a TD to Testeverde/Carr seems OK to me as well. lol Not sure.

Also leaning to Miami getting DD points in London, and Farve & the Packers getting a FG on MNF. Denver is still a bad team, IMO and I think we are getting some value with the roag dog in that one....like Farve on the big stage.

Garrard looks to be out 2 weeks, so we get that Gray scrub only getting 4.5 IN Tampa coming off a tough road loss? Might have to grab some Bucs action too. lol! They are a great HOME team, and Jax on a short week with a new QB. hmmm


GL everyone.....love these threads UD, even if I am usually the odd man out on my sides! I'm probably very public on a couple of those plays. lol. I know the Steelers is, and that's why I got it early. ahhh, wtf!

Let's get a winning week everyone!

[Underdog88]

***Jags+4.5 @ TB/ Carolina+6.5 vs Indy***


Daws- I agree about Tavaris, don't know if I like that game either way though. If Dilfer is playing, I'm off the Niners. He's a turnover machine. As for the Jags, I just think TB will have trouble running, & I think Jax won't. Getting around +180 for the better team overall, but it's looking like Garrard will be out. I'm not sure I can back Gray

[Shamrock]

Also want to point out what JML just referenced:

Miami isnt a true home dog due to the game being in London.

FYI.....

Sham.....

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

GL everyone.....love these threads UD, even if I am usually the odd man out on my sides! lol.

That's exactly what makes these threads good! IMO we all need conflicting opinions to get the full picture on these games. You guys talked me out of a play on the Skins ats last week...


BTW, the Bills & Steelers are almost definite plays for me this week

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

BTW, the Bills & Steelers are almost definite plays for me this week

Yeah...I'm on those 2 already, as they are public-backed, and I didn't want to lose the 3 either way on each game...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

I don't know what to think about the Dolphins. They'll win a game this season, but boy will it be tough to play on them without Ronnie Brown. This line is inflated IMO, but it's still a play that would be tough to make.

****...I'm officially off the Dolphins...I think I was on them for about 17 minutes, lol! Yeah...no Ronnie Brown, no play at any line, in any country! lol. I hadn't looked into the game yet, but at first glance it was too many points, but it's a prefect no-play game now, IMO.

[NittanyLions94]

According to scoresandodds the Steelers line opened at -1 and quickly jumped to -3 then eventually the -4 we are seeing now.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by NittanyLions94

According to scoresandodds the Steelers line opened at -1 and quickly jumped to -3 then eventually the -4 we are seeing now.

It opened juiced huge though....at Pinny on Sunday night it opened at -1 -138 or something like that...so essentially it was a -3 opening...I waited a little too long, and got it at -3 -124...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

I think the Rams have a very good shot at a win, as Bulger should be able to throw all over the Brown's 29th ranked pass D, which has allowed 17 tds so far this season. The Browns also have the 30th ranked run D & in 2 road games have given up 6 turnovers (0-2). I do think this could be a better over play, as the Rams are allowing 4 ypc. & a 2nd worst in the league 9 tds allowed on the ground. The total is set at 43.5, & I can see both teams scoring at least 21 points each.

Steven Jackson a go for the Rams in this one as well...Rams & the Over?

[Shamrock]

It looks like Stephen Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Brandon Jacobs are all a go this week. At QB, Joey Harrington, Kelly Holcomb, Vince Young are all a go.

Pennington and Edwards are up in the air for Jets and Bills.

Jesse Chatman replaces Ronnie brown for the rmainder of the season at starting RB.

Sham.......

[bookiekilla]

At first glance this is what I'm looking at so far...

Rams +3 vs the Browns...live home dog here IMO...If the rams don't beat the browns at home, they might not ever win a game..lol...this one is perfect for them to get their O back on tracka as the Browns D is horrible.

Oakland +9....once again...like the Titans vs the Falcons earlier this year...I just don't think the titans are good enough yet to be laying almost Double digits to anyone...

Pitt -4...just pick the winner right? Can't see Cincy winning this one...so I wouldn't mind laying the 4

49ers +3....this is NOT last years saints team...I know the 49ers are bad, but the saints aren't good enought to be laying points on the road...to anyone...not yet atleast....they didn't show me anything against the falcons, even though they won that game..would've lost if it wasn't for Leftwitch getting hurt, IMO.....

Denver -3...just not impressed with the Pack so far this year...another one of the 'just picket winner' plays...Don't see farve having a good day against that bronco's secondary, so I don't see the Pack winning this one in denver...

also leaning towards the redskins....I finally see a line against the pats that I might want to play...

[yomonte]

Nice thread UDog. Should have looked in here long before now. I like Oak and Philly, but Oly has some fkd up lines on both. 7 1/2 on Oak where most have 9. I'm waiting on that one and Philly but Oly is not budging off the 1. Twice Pinny went to +1 only to come back to -1. But fkn Oly never moved except to go to -1 1/2. I'll take Philly -1 right before the game but hoping that line moves and I need 9 for Oak.