Week 8 Parlay

[Tre976]

Great Forum! been lurking for several weeks. Was thinking of doing a 4 team parlay. Any thoughts on how bad/good this looks appreciated.

Colts -6.5
Eagles/Vikings o37.5
Bucs -3.5
Pats/Was o48

$100 gets $1173

[Shamrock]

Parlays are a hard way to profit in this wagering world we live in......

If you want to play over the course of the season, i recommend playing games straight up. If you just want to **** around and buy a lottery ticket, then put that parlay in.

The thing with parlays is they look great cause they are low risk and high reward, but probability of selecting one event to occur is hard enough, let alone four.

As for the games, I wouldnt play an over with the eagles until they can start scoring. They are by far the worst team this year with red zone scoring percentage. I bleed green and they are my favorite team, so this is truly objective comment....

Colts are on a short week, which does affect team. I can see them covering because they are playing Vinny or Carr with a mediocre Panthers team. But they are on the road, so I'm laying off the game completely.

I'll take Bucs -3.5 with Garcia and crew over the hurtin' jags on a short week, looks like a nice pick.

I can tell why you like the over in this game! NE is averaging the over! Just kidding, not that much, but close with 39.9 PPG. I guess if i had to take a side it would be the over, but i just dont like the play. Washington is a slower team, in terms of offense. If they dont fall behind a ton early like Miami did, they will run the ball and use Cooley for quick gains to eat up the clock.

As you can tell by my record, i'm not the wagering wizard like some other guys on here, just thought i'd help out.

sham....

[Tre976]

Thanks Shamrock! I know in the back of my brain its a longshot (read: sucker bet)

[homedawg]

Mnf su loser ~~~~~~~ following week result

bal--------------------------> su win
ari-------------------------->su win
phi--------------------------> su win
nos------------------------->bye
cin------------------------->bye
buf------------------------->bye
atl-------------------------->ats cover

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by homedawg

Mnf su loser ~~~~~~~ following week result

bal--------------------------> su win
ari-------------------------->su win
phi--------------------------> su win
nos------------------------->bye
cin------------------------->bye
buf------------------------->bye
atl-------------------------->ats cover

Any of those teams lose their starting QB, and replace him with a guy with absolutely no NFL experience, and start him on the road on the short week against the 5th ranked defence?

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Any of those teams lose their starting QB, and replace him with a guy with absolutely no NFL experience, and start him on the road on the short week against the 5th ranked defence?

did ya check the stats on jax rushing offense???? how does your #5 tampa defense stack up against the rush?????
didn't your #5 tampa defense just give up 23 to the lions gray looked rusty on mnf, but with all week to prepare, look for an improvement

BTW, I sure in the hell would not put the bucs in a 4team parlay...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by homedawg

did ya check the stats on jax rushing offense???? how does your #5 tampa defense stack up against the rush?????
didn't your #5 tampa defense just give up 23 to the lions gray looked rusty on mnf, but with all week to prepare, look for an improvement

BTW, I sure in the hell would not put the bucs in a 4team parlay...

Won't the #5 defence stack the line, knowing full well that Jax's only strength in this game is their running game, especially with the QB they are forced to start, and make Gray beat them? Oh and isn't that Jax's offence's best runner not healthy? And is giving up 23 points against Detroit at Ford field supposed to be a bad thing? I'd say thats pretty good. You say it like they got rolled over, and gave up 40. lmao And that was a road game...they have given up 9 PPG at home, and held the NFL's best rushing team at the time to 96 yards in their last home game. Run defence can't be that bad...and is actually middle of the pack. Rush defence scares me only when a team faces an offence with a passing game to compliment the running game....that does not apply here IMO.

Look for an improvement? That's just based on wishes and dreams, and can't be expected, just "because". He is still a kid starting on the road in the NFL. usually not a good thing...even if he had those whole 6 days to "prepare". Although I am sure he will imrove slightly on his 11.1 QB rating...I do agree with that.

I agree though...definitely wouldn't play tampa in a 4 game parlay! lol! not my fav play of the week...

[homedawg]

I'm still tryin' to figure out how you see the bucs defense rated #5 overall? Besides, Homer stated the skins defense is #5 overall....


Gray has been around, drafted in '02... He even won world bowl XI

the kid has an arm, but his passes were sooooooooooo far off on mnf..... tough situation there, when you have to come from behind against INDY! ... should settle in on sunday... JMO

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

lol....I can make a defence any ranking I want, to support a point...don't you know that?? lol.

Anyway....yeah...Gray could improve....we'll see...you're right, that was a tough spot!

GL this weekend HD!


Oh...and TB defence is ranked 5th in Points per game (15.7)...that is usually what I go by....unless I specifiy rushing d, passing d, Total, etc...

GL

[JB]

I usually like to play on a team the first game they have their back-up in. You usually IMO get a pretty good line value due to a team having to play their back up QB. The results have been mixed so far this year. This is out of my own personal notes so don't shoot me if I missed one or two:

Week 2 - Clevenald beat Cincinnati 51-45 (Anderson) 1-0-0
Week 3 - Minnesota lost to KC 13-10 (Holcoumb) (ATS Push) 1-0-1
Week 4 - Raiders beat Miami 35-17 (Culpepper) (ATS Win) 2-0-1
Week 4 - Carolina lost to Tampa Bay 20-7 (Carr) (ATS Loss) 2-1-1
Week 4 - Chicago lost to Detroit 37-27 (Griese) (ATS Loss) 2-2-1
Week 4 - Buffalo beat NY Jets 17-14 (Edwards) (ATS Win) 3-2-1
Week 5 - San Francisco lost to Baltimore 9-7 (Dilfer) (ATS Win) 4-2-1
Week 6 - Arizona lost to Carolina 25-10 (game Warner was hurt first series) 4-3-1
Week 6 - Carolina beat Arizona 25-10 (Testaverde) 5-3-1
Week 6 - St. Louis lost to Baltimire 22-3 (Ferrotte) 5-4-1
Week 6 - Baltimore beat St. Louis 22-3 (Boller) 6-4-1
Week 6 - Miami lost to Cleveland 41-31 (Lemmon) 6-5-1
Week 7 - Tennesee beat Houston 38-36 (Collins) (ATS Win) 7-5-1
Week 7 - Atlanta lost to New Orleans 22-16 (Leftwich) (ATS Win) 8-5-1

Got quite a few that backups played each other.

For what its worth I like Jacksonville this week against Tampa Bay. Think the team will rally around Gray for at least one week.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by JB

Week 2 - Clevenald beat Cincinnati 51-45 (Anderson) 1-0-0
Week 3 - Minnesota lost to KC 13-10 (Holcoumb) (ATS Push) 1-0-1
Week 4 - Raiders beat Miami 35-17 (Culpepper) (ATS Win) 2-0-1
Week 4 - Carolina lost to Tampa Bay 20-7 (Carr) (ATS Loss) 2-1-1
Week 4 - Chicago lost to Detroit 37-27 (Griese) (ATS Loss) 2-2-1
Week 4 - Buffalo beat NY Jets 17-14 (Edwards) (ATS Win) 3-2-1
Week 5 - San Francisco lost to Baltimore 9-7 (Dilfer) (ATS Win) 4-2-1
Week 6 - Arizona lost to Carolina 25-10 (game Warner was hurt first series) 4-3-1
Week 6 - Carolina beat Arizona 25-10 (Testaverde) 5-3-1
Week 6 - St. Louis lost to Baltimire 22-3 (Ferrotte) 5-4-1
Week 6 - Baltimore beat St. Louis 22-3 (Boller) 6-4-1
Week 6 - Miami lost to Cleveland 41-31 (Lemmon) 6-5-1
Week 7 - Tennesee beat Houston 38-36 (Collins) (ATS Win) 7-5-1
Week 7 - Atlanta lost to New Orleans 22-16 (Leftwich) (ATS Win) 8-5-1

Interesting JB.

One thing I noticed from that info....was that of the 8 wins....6 of them were from veteran, former long-time starters in this league, and the other 2 were wins against Cincy & NYJ...two horrible defences. I think Gray against TB is a different story. Who knows.

GL, JB!

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

lol....I can make a defence any ranking I want, to support a point...don't you know that?? lol.

Anyway....yeah...Gray could improve....we'll see...you're right, that was a tough spot!

GL this weekend HD!


Oh...and TB defence is ranked 5th in Points per game (15.7)...that is usually what I go by....unless I specifiy rushing d, passing d, Total, etc...

GL

There are 2 sides to a game...

you think the sissy boy is gonna have his way with jax defense???

in flamer's 4 wins:
.......... scored 13pts on ten ( ten d gives up 18ppg)
..........scored 20pts on car (car d gives up 18ppg)
..........scored 24pts on stl (stl d gives up 27ppg)
.........scored 31pts on nos (nos d gives up 25ppg)

except for indy, most pts scored on jax d, was 17 this year...
knowing the fact that tbb has a very weak offense, and jax has a very solid defense, I dont see tbb puttin' up many points on the jax defense, besides that you need to cover 4pts...
all you can hope for, is jax dont score!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Sissy boy? One of the toughest QB's in the league, IMO.

Flamer? If you saw his wife, you wouldn't say that.

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Sissy boy? One of the toughest QB's in the league, IMO.

Flamer? If you saw his wife, you wouldn't say that.

dont forget, sissyboy did play here in cleveland.... well known fact she is a local, cashin in without puttin' out...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by homedawg

dont forget, sissyboy did play here in cleveland.... well known fact she is a local, cashin in without puttin' out...

lol...you and T.O. with your theories.

He played in Calgary when I lived there...well known poon-hound. Hung out at this bar Cowboys all the time. They paid for all the waitresses boobs jobs at that place, lol. The dude's not gay (not that there's anything wrong with that, lol). I think T.O.'s the one that is gay...usually it's the haters, that are covering up. lol.