JML Week 8 NFL >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Week 7: 7-2, +13.53
NFL YTD: 39-18, +61.59 Units

FYI...if some of my posted lines seem low...I buy the games that are heavily public backed on Monday or Tuesday, to avoid the line movement against me....the anti-public plays I buy later in the week...I have 3 different books (including Pinny), and always shop for the best line...very important, IMO....Week 8 plays...


Browns/Rams OVER 43 -116
Rare total play for me, but UD got me looking into this one in the discussion thread, and this one feels like a shootout. Browns have a pretty potent offence, ranked 4th in PPG, with lots of weapons, and a piss-poor defence ranked last in the whole league. STL getting healthy on the offensive side of the ball with Bulger, Jackson, Holt & Bruce ready to put up some points this week at home...add in a dome stadium, and there's a very good chance this this goes way over. I see it jumped to 45 the past couple days.

Colts -6 -113 vs Panthers
Prefer Manning over Testeverde and a less than 100% Carr any day laying less than a TD. Indy keeps it rolling going into the NE game, IMO. Carolina's 4-2 record more of a reflection of their weak, weak schedule...they've only had one quality opponent...a blowout loss to Tampa. Big step up in talent for their opponent this week. Pick the winner system, and there's no way I see the Panthers winning this one outright.

Steelers -3 -126 vs Bungals
About as good of a spot you can get when playing b2b roadies. Steelers coming off a tough loss to Denver, where Ben made mistakes early, but turned it around after that, and Pitt really dominated Denver in the 2nd half, IMO. Cincy's defence blows as we know, and I really feel the Steelers move the ball at will all day, keeping Cincy off the field. Bengals get one ****ty, lucky win over the awful Jets, and all of a sudden they will compete with the Steelers? No way. People like to back Cincy because of the big names Palmer and Johnson...but Carson is having a down year (89 QB rating), gets to face the #1 defence this week, and isn't seeing the field much with such a terrible defence of his own. Pittsburgh already leads the league in Time of possession, and they should be on the field all day in this one. Palmer should bring a comfy seat cushion for this one, as his defence will have trouble getting him the ball (except after Pitt TDs, lol). Cincy near the bottom of the league in TOP. Steelers by DD.

Vikings +1 +103 vs Eagles
Continuing my fades of this **** Eagles team....they blow, and Minny should be favoured by a FG at home in this one. They really could have gone into Dallas and won that game, if not for a few bad bounces. They only gave Peterson 12 f'ing carries....I expect them to realize that mistake, and pound him all day. Philly has one good win under their belt this year...a home win against Detroit. Big deal...every other game they have been ****. I'll take this homedog. Vikings have played close games all year, and will play well at home after playing 2 in a row on the road, and 4 of 5.

Bills +3 -115 vs Jets
Lots of posts on this game from me in the discussion thread....noodle-arm laying points...please...taking the better team getting a FG...the how and why is in the discussion thread.

Buccaneers -3.5 -115 vs Jaguars
Garrard out 2 weeks, so we get to fade that limp-armed Quinn Gray scrub only laying 4. Tampa coming off a tough road loss, but they are a great Home team, and Jax on a short week with a new QB. Jones-Drew also less that 100%. Garcia continues to impress...and leads his team back into the win column at home. Pick a winner.

Saints -2.5 -110 vs Niners
Saints turning things around slightly with 2 straight wins, and I like them against the struggling Niners. Both defences not playing well, but the SF offence is brutal, ranked last in the NFL, and won't be able to keep up with the 24+ points NO is likely to put up. Gore also not 100%, and looks to be playing this Sunday, but tender ankle injuries aren't the greatest things for RBs. SF also very weak at QB...whoever plays.


4 Units Each


Also looking at the Redskins +17 , but I'm waiting until closer to gametime.



Let's keep the train rolling

[JoeyBallgame]

with ya on Minny and that Over.

[SuperSkins]

GL Sunday

[theBOSS]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Saints -2.5 -110 vs Niners
Saints turning things around slightly with 2 straight wins, and I like them against the struggling Niners. Both defences not playing well, but the SF offence is brutal, ranked last in the NFL, and won't be able to keep up with the 24+ points NO is likely to put up. Gore also not 100%, and looks to be playing this Sunday, but tender ankle injuries aren't the greatest things for RBs. SF also very weak at QB...whoever plays.


[:

disagree about the saints defense. i've watched every game this year and the run defense has been as good as ever. they've held their last 5 opp to under 100 yards rushing and one more will break the great dome patrol's team record of 6 in a row. 3.6 ypc for the season and only two 20+ yard runs. i like that matchup against a gimpy gore.

the pass defense isn't great but theyve held 4 out of their last 5 under 260 passing. the one 300 yard game was hasslebeck where they were forced to throw all game after being behind 21-0. i also like this matchup against a less than 100% smith.

you're basing your analysis of the saints defense off of previous years. btw- saints are 8-2 ATS v. SF since 98

[Whaleydog]

GL This week JML

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks Guys.

yeah, Boss...I was mentioning in another thread that NO's run D isn't too bad, I just mostly meant they've been giving up some points this year....but they are a middle of the pack D....and hey, I'm backing the Saints, so I obviously don't think they have to much trouble with that horrible Niner offence.

GL this weekend...

[birdsfan5]

Gl JML

[GamblinMan03]

Gl Jml

[Larry]

Good Luck my Canadian guru of the NFL

[TheBeholdah]

nice looking card there man, hope you keep rollin might join you on the steelers

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks Guys


****...laying off Washington I guess...line is down to 15 today....

[NittanyLions94]

GL JML

[hodown]

GL

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks guys...

Well...looks like 3-1 on the early games with the Steelers getting it done, and Indy blowing out the Panthers as expected. However...more trouble for tha Minny offence...now Bollinger is the answer?

Couldn't bring myself to take the Skins +15....I'll leave that game alone, and just (hopefully) enjoy the Bills game on TV. Now that I don't have any action on the NE game, I really hope they blowout the Skins by 30+, so I can get a decent dog line for INdy at home next week....I can't wait for that one!!

Bills and Bucs opening drives looked great for FGs



Gl the rest of the day everyone!

[Horfin]

You're doing great this year. Keep it up. I shoulda listened to you on Buffalo.(I made it a no play)