Cavorca NFL Week 9

[cavorca12]

New England at Indianapolis
New England -4 (-120) ..... 1.5 Units
New England -4.5 ..... 0.75 Unit

Saw the line this morning and thought it best to grab it. It was at -4.5, but it was still only -120 if bought down to -4, so I figured I'd take that and put some on -4.5 as well. I put it in a little less than 1 hour ago, and it's up to -5 now. Posting it now so it's up and out there. Don't know the rules on saying books and if it's safe for me to say it or not, but it is one that's listed in the Sportsbooks discussion thread. Rather be safe than sorry.

[cavorca12]

Adding:

Seattle at Cleveland
Over 46.5 ..... 1 Unit

Dallas at Philadelphia
Dallas -3 (-120) ..... 1 Unit

New England at Indianapolis
Over 56.5 ..... 1 Unit

Green Bay at Kansas City
Green Bay +2 (-105)..... 1 Unit

Washington at NYJ
Washington -3.5 (-105) ..... 1 Unit

San Diego at Minnesota
San Diego -7 (-105) ..... 1 Unit


Made the Dallas play on Monday without doing enough work on the game, but unfortunately, I'd probably lay off if I could take it back... I've been saying how Philly wasn't as bad as they seem for a couple weeks, and I still maintain that opinion. McNabb is playing better, and if he's really getting healthy, that's a big plus for Philly. Philly could have another big plus if Dawkins returns, listed as probable. As for Dallas, no idea how they'll be on the road after the bye under Phillips, and they are @ NYG next week. Nice sandwich game for Dallas to take Philly lightly after their bye, and Philly to grab a big division/conf win at home. Basically, I'm posting the play I made for the record, but at this point I don't really lean either way. Should have been a no play IMO.


See my post below for thoughts on NE/Indy. I know, it is a ton of points...

[cavorca12]

My thoughts about the NE at Indy game are below. You could get so in-depth with numbers, ect., but I think it comes down to not over thinking things and keeping it simple. My thoughts:

Indy beat NE on the way to winning the SB last year. NE's offense was completely different last year, with no WR's and run focus with Dillon/Maroney/ect. NE used to play the game that was best suited for their offense, run. It's the same this year, but with the pass instead of run. NE just isn't the same team. NE has put up points on everyone, so it's hard for me to think Indy will hold them in the 20's. Even if Indy tries to control the ball on offense and keep NE off the field, what does Indy do if NE goes up 14-0??? NE likely won't come out and run the ball the whole 1Q, because it's not their game. They don't need a long drive to get a score, so they could go up real quick if Indy can't stop the pass. Basically, my point is that until someone stops NE, I just don't see how that ball control theory holds. I just see this as the game that NE has been gunning for this whole season. They've been plastering everyone else, but no one can question NE if they win convincingly at Indy. Yes, Indy is great, and greater at home, but I'm not going to be the one to go out on a limb trying to pick when NE stumbles. My money is on NE, but this should be a great football game to just sit back and enjoy. BOL!