Week 9 Aggrivation

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd ats 43-50 (-33.44 units)
dog ml's 11-16 (+1.21 units)
parlays 0-1 (-1.00 units)
total 54-67 (-33.23 units)

1pm games:

KC Chiefs -2 (-110)

Tough home team, off a bye. GB in a bad spot facing a non conference team on the road off a MNF win in OT. AFC team favored over NFC team here for a reason IMO, despite having a far worse record. Laying -2 is an easy choice for me.

Tampon Bay Bucs -3.5 (+100)

Wonder why there's a hook on this line? Might be looking for some public Arizona bets here....as Tampon Bay isn't exactly one of those public darlings where the book can just add hooks or extra points and get action anyway....especially when they're facing a team off a bye.

Aside from beating Pittsburgh, Arizona hasn't done anything this season except get alot of hype and lose to alot of average to bad teams. Take away a game against an awful STL team where they put up 34, and this hyped up ARI offense is only averaging 18.83 ppg. Decent, but nothing special.

I just don't think they're that good. Bucs defense should be in control here, and they can once again score a respectable amount of points with Garcia at the helm when needed....so I'll use pick the winner, which I think will be TB.

Minnesota Viqueens +7.5 (-105)

The Viqueens have played a pretty tough schedule (aside from ATL, who they hammered), and they've been in every game. They don't play pretty, but they hang around. Getting over a TD at home against one who may be a bit overvalued due to some recent big wins over some pretty bad teams (DEN, HOU, OAK) is a steal IMO. MIN is better than any of those 3 teams.

Oh yea, SD has INDY next week....in a game that certainly means alot to them to prove to themselves they are once again contenders.

3 units each

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-105)

I can get the better team AND +3.5 points? Cool.

Seriously, the Aints blow out a horrible SF team, win a relatively close one to a bad ATL team, and beat an average Seattle team and all of a sudden this is the Aints of last year? The public might think so, but I don't see it. JAX is FAR FAR better than SEA, ATL, or SF, and they win this game outright IMO.

Carolina Panthers +4 (+100)

CAR gets hammered by Indy, and now all of a sudden they suck? TEN has only played 2 games this year where the final was more than this line....winning by 7 over the bad Falcons, and by 17 over the Aints. Ten doesn't have the arsenal to blow anyone out, and this one once again comes down to the wire . The points are a super value IMHO, as is the ML, because I think CAR has at least a 50/50 shot at winning outright.

NY Jets +4.5 (-110)

Just a hunch that these NYJ are better without Noodle Arm (I hope he's not playing due to that ankle injury), and a fade of the public who sees the Jets as scum. We'll see how it turns out. Not much else to go on here for me, except that I think the Jets are a better team than their record would indicate....

2 units each

Jacksonville Jaguars ML +170
Carolina Panthers ML +195
NY Jets ML +190

1 unit each

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL!

We actually agree on a few this week!

[Stifler's Mom]

4pm games:

Indianapolis Colts +6 (+105)

I guess this is the game where we find out how good N.E. really is? I know why the line is what it is....it has to be after what NE has done to their opposition this year.

Oddly enough though, roles have reversed for these teams since just a few years ago....as N.E. used to be the one who won ugly sometimes, but usually got the job done....all the way to 3 super bowl wins, while Indy was crushing pretty much everyone, and coming up empty every year when it counted.

Total lack of respect for super bowl champs Manning and the Colts all week long here though, and they'll be ready to go today.

I just have to take the Colts at home at this line. Prove it to me N.E. Beating Indy by 20+ will certainly do that. Anything else and Indy can slide in the backdoor at this line....although that's not how I see this one playing out. I see it coming down to the wire, going either way late.

Cleveland Browns -1 (-108)

SEA just isn't that great, and they have never traveled well. The only thing they have going for them today is that they're coming off a bye....which I don't believe will be enough in the dog pound....against a better team. The CLE offense is impressive, and while their defense has room for improvement, I don't think SEA can or will capitalize often enough.

The line of only CLE -1 at home would indicate that SEA is 2 points better than CLE (CLE -3 would indicate even teams, and -3 home field advantage), and that this line would be SEA -5 if the game were played at SEA (2 points better + 3 points homefield).

It wouldn't be though. It would be SEA -3 or MAYBE -3.5. Therefore, this is a weak line IMO. Should be at least CLE -2.5, and probably CLE -3, but that would bring too much SEA action from the public....as I don't think they trust the Brownies enough yet to lay a FG or more with them.

I would have layed anything up to CLE -3 for this one....

3 units each

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

GL!

We actually agree on a few this week!

LOL

[Stifler's Mom]

8pm game:

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (+100)

2 units

Philadelphia Eagles ML +175

1 unit

Even Hammerin Hank says Dallas will blow out the Eagles. If only the oddsmakers agreed.

I ain't buying Dallas as a 6-1 team. They play some decent opposition, and they're probably 4-3. Philly has improved every week, and their wins are more impressive than they would appear to be.

The ugly ass loss to NYG last time PHI played in primetime continues to stick in everyone's mind and probably will all season long. How could the public NOT hammer Dallas at this "weak" line?

If it looks too good to be true....

Gimme the Eagles