Pittsburgh/Baltimore Discussion

[Horfin]

Figure we can hammer it out here:

So Pittsburgh is 5-2 and have one win against a winning team (Cleveland 5-3 at Cleveland like 9 weeks ago without the good QB) and 2 wins against 4-4 teams and loses to two 3-5 teams.....3-0 at home

Baltimore hasn't even played a team with a winning record, the closest was Arizona which they won.

I'll add thoughts throughout the day. Anyone got anything to give?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Wasn't sure what side I liked until today....after looking into the game, I'm laying the points on a good home team.

Synopsis...

1. Steelers top ranked defence > Ravens offence (one of the worst in all of the NFL). Simple as that..I see Baltimore shut down, especially on the road.
2. Steelers offense with lots of firepower > Ravens defence is very overrated IMO, and are only ranked high in total defence because of the weak offensive teams they have faced this year (Buf/Stl/SF last 3 games). Facing the Steelers offense will be a wake-up call to a fraud D, IMO.
3. Steelers 3-0 ATS at home (3 blowouts against OK/Weak teams) > Ravens 0-4 ATS on the road (against even weaker opponents)
4. Steelers healthy > Ravens still banged up, even after a bye (starting DBs Rolle/Mcallister out, Heap/Pryce/Odgen still not 100%)
5. Roethlisberger > McNair/Boller
6. Tomlin > Billick
7. Pittsburgh payback for losses to Baltimore last year.
8. Home Field.

[Horfin]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

1. Steelers top ranked defence > Ravens offence (one of the worst in all of the NFL). Simple as that..I see Baltimore shut down, especially on the road.
2. Steelers offense with lots of firepower > Ravens defence is very overrated IMO, and are only ranked high in total defence because of the weak offensive teams they have faced this year (Buf/Stl/SF last 3 games). Facing the Steelers offense will be a wake-up call to a fraud D, IMO.
3. Steelers 3-0 ATS at home (3 blowouts against OK/Weak teams) > Ravens 0-4 ATS on the road (against even weaker opponents)
4. Steelers healthy > Ravens still banged up, even after a bye (starting DBs Rolle/Mcallister out, Heap/Pryce/Odgen still not 100%)
5. Roethlisberger > McNair/Boller
6. Tomlin > Billick
7. Pittsburgh payback for losses to Baltimore last year.
8. Home Field.

1. McNair was out for a few games
2. Ravens have 8 Offensive TDs this season
3. agree
4. agree
5. Roth is good as long as he doesn't throw that much
6. I disagree. This year you are right, but historically not much history for Tomlin
7. I always like the revenge factor
8. agree

I'm still lookin' cause I keep thinkin' DAMN 9 points. Seems awfully high.

Horfin

[Horfin]

Pitt is 11-0 last 11 on MNF

Before the game they will honor old steeler players.

[Horfin]

Returning starting players for Baltimore:

Steve NcNair, offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden and defensive tackle Trevor Pryce

I beleive there are injuries on 2ndary of Pittsburgh.

Also,McNair is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. Worst in league.

[akatdrake]

A little info for the pick I bought today:

At 8:30 p.m., our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Baltimore. Brian Billick's Ravens have been a huge diapoointment this year in Las Vegas, going 1-6 ATS. And the only game they covered was against the winless St. Louis Rams. The fact that Baltimore has won four of its seven games straight-up is largely due to mirrors, as they easily could have lost to the Jets, Cardinals, and 49ers. In contrast, the Steelers are 5-2 SU and ATS, and their early blowout wins over Cleveland and Buffalo look rather good now, given how well those teams have played since. All five of Pittsburgh's wins were easy, and they could have won either of their two setbacks (at Denver and at Arizona) had things broken differently. The Men of Steel have always played great at home, and now they fall into a super Monday Night Football angle that plays on unrested teams returning home from back to back road games. And if our home team has a win percentage of .454 or better and is matched up against a .665 (or worse) foe, then our home teams are a supoer 24-0 ATS since 1982. The home team in this heated rivalry is 32-22 ATS since 1980, and we'll back the Black and Gold as our Monday Night Football Game of the Year.

Okay, so I'm not sure if that was legal to write here, but I paid for the information and am giving it to you for free. I hate weird statistics like they had at the end there, but take it for what you will. Good luck tonight everyone. I have a 14 unit play on Pitt -9 today.

BOL GUYS!!!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Horfin

1. McNair was out for a few games
2. Ravens have 8 Offensive TDs this season
3. agree
4. agree
5. Roth is good as long as he doesn't throw that much
6. I disagree. This year you are right, but historically not much history for Tomlin
7. I always like the revenge factor
8. agree

I'm still lookin' cause I keep thinkin' DAMN 9 points. Seems awfully high.

Horfin

1. Non-issue, IMO...as Mcnair is not a difference-maker anymore, and not a significant improvement over Boller (if any!)
5. I actually think the theory that Ben can't pass is a thing of the past...he is not a rookie anymore....The guy has a 65% completion rate, 15/6 TD/INT ratio, and a passer rating over 100 (102.2). I like his arm, his ability to scramble, his toughness, and the Steelers have one of the better balanced offenses, IMO.
6. It was more based on ability, not experience or history ....Billick is a jackass, and one of the worst in-game decision-making Head Coaches of all-time IMO. Even the history doesn't impress me, as Billick was gifted an all-time defence, and got lucky to be along for the ride.

Yeah....9 is alot (I got 8), but at home...they are at least 10 points better than a team that will be lucky to end up .500...and injured on top of it all. I don't love laying more than a TD...but there is no way I can play Baltimore on the road against a quality opponent unless I got 2 TDs in my back pocket.

GL with whatever you choose Horf....great job yesterday!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Horfin

Steve NcNair, offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden and defensive tackle Trevor Pryce.

I think read Odgen/Price will play, but are still not 100%, and will see "limited Action". Odgen will split time at tackle, and Price will only play passing downs.

Originally Posted by Horfin

I beleive there are injuries on 2ndary of Pittsburgh.

They are actually getting CB Mcfadden back this game...still missing FS Clark for second week in a row. Non-issue, IMO...as the main cogs of the secondary are healthy.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Horfin

Pitt is 11-0 last 11 on MNF

Before the game they will honor old steeler players.

[Horfin]

JML,

Thanks for the input. I don't know if I am trying to talk myself into Baltimore or if there is something I don't like about the 9 or 9.5 I am seeing now.

The line has moved from 7.5 to 9.5 at Pinnacle with only 52% on Pittsburgh.

All this **** points to Pittsburgh and I just don't feel right playing it.

Horfin

[akatdrake]

Hey Horf, for those of us on Pitt, don't talk yourself into BAL, as I know personally I would not like to be on opposite sides of you. Just lay off the game. Thanks :) :):) haha

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Horfin

JML,

Thanks for the input. I don't know if I am trying to talk myself into Baltimore or if there is something I don't like about the 9 or 9.5 I am seeing now.

The line has moved from 7.5 to 9.5 at Pinnacle with only 52% on Pittsburgh.

All this **** points to Pittsburgh and I just don't feel right playing it.

Horfin

Then you should lay off a side play, if you don't feel confident in either

GL!

[Horfin]

Rain? Is it going to Rain all game long? Is this correct?

Any pittsburghers out there?


Horfin

[yomonte]

The road dog has covered every line move upwards of 2 1/2 or more.

[Horfin]

Originally Posted by yomonte

The road dog has covered every line move upwards of 2 1/2 or more.

Ok THere is one reason. Give me more reasons. I like Baltimore (gut) but nothing I look at gives me a reason, other than this fact and the big line on MNF.


Thanks YO!

Horfin