WK 10 discussion...start early

[gameaholic]

Well PIT has opened at -9.5, was the BAL game a sandwich game but I seem to not think that being that it's CLEV they now go against which is still another DIV game. Why ope at -9.5 against CLE. are they saying that BAL and CLE are about the same type of team. PIT is home again and it seems to me that this is a no brainer and TAKE PIT -9.5 any thoughts..??

ATL/CAR. WHAT IS GOIN ON? CAR-4.5. Well I took a look at all games this year y all teams and the spreads, all who gave the 4.5 lost the spead except for one and thats the PATS. I can't see CAR wining. the two teams played earlier and ATL lost by 7 and that was with DELHOME at the QB poss. CAR has a hard time now. I like ATL + THE PNTS.

MIN/GB. GB is -6.5 I also took a looka t every game that had a team -6.5 and they all lost the spread, is there a difference here?? Peterson is a beast and will run all over GB and they knowing what to expect wont matter much, SD run D is alot better than GB and PETERSON tore them up. This is the 2nd time around for these two and the first went to GB. easy last time for the cheeze heads but not so this time around. GB is due for a loss ya think? the only thing that has me taking MIN here is that I have GB only wining by 2, way off to what the line expect by 7 for the cover.

JUST TO SHOW U ALL HOW MY SYSTEM WORKS AND HOW ON IT IS THE DEN/KC GAME IS OFF RITE NOW BOTH SIDE AND TOTAL. THIS IS WHAT I COME UP WITH... HOW THE SPREAD SHOULD BE.
DEN 17 KC 22 TOTAL IN GAME SHOULD BE ABOUT 39 SHOULD LOOK SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN OPENED KC-5 39.


WK 10 PICKS
PIT -9.5
ATL +4.5
MIN +6.5

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Initial thoughts...without looking into things in-depth yet...is that this is the ****tiest card yet this year, IMO....but I like the Browns and Falcons getting points....the favs are about 4 points too high in each instance, IMO.

Yes...the Steelers dominated the Ravens...but I have thought they were **** for a while, and Pittsburgh got so many good bounces in the bad weather, and so many short fields, as well as facing one of the worst offences in the league, that that game was over in the 1st quarter. Everything pointed to an easy Pitt win in that one....but Cleveland has been playing well...has a very good offence that can go toe-to-toe with the Steelers, and will be pumped for this game more than any other this year, going against a division rival for the division lead? 9.5 is insane, IMO...and I will be all over the Brownies on that kind of number.

As for the Falcons....not my favourite thing to back them and Joey....but there's no way Carolina should be laying that many points to anyone, and I don't see why this shouldn't be under a FG. The Panthers might be down to their 4th string QB next week (Matt Moore?), and even with Carr/Testeverde in, the team has not looked good losing 2 straight badly. Atlanta will hang around in this one, much like they did in recent road games against Tenn & NO...and could have some confidence after getting a win over SF last game. Grabbed the 4.5 points in that one.

Will also be looking at the still under-rated Bills with the hot trio of JP Losman/Marshawn Lynch/Lee Evans only laying a FG at winless Miami....and the explosive Lions getting points at brutal Arizona...although Detroit hasn't been great on the road....so I don't know for sure if they'll get my money ...but nothing much else there, IMO....we'll see...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Wow...just saw Pinny opened Browns +10 -103
Jumped on that.

Also grabbed the 4.5 with the Falcons early....I like the side with healthy teams, so I'm cool as is....BUT with so many question marks for the Panthers at QB....if that Moore kid is indeed listed as the starter, I expect the line to drop a bit....ALSO...Steve Smith is banged up with a hip problem, and is questionable, as well as Julius Peppers I think I read...AND starting centre Hartwig is likely out (ask a ball coach, or a veteran football gambler how important missing your starting centre is), and that to an O-Line that gave up 7 sacks last game....crazy injury problems for a team already struggling IMO...and expected to win by a TD.

If any collection of these very important Panther players are scratched for this game, or at the very least starting at less than 100%....I like the 4.5 even more, and this number could land near a pick'em. In other words....if you like the Falcons....get it early, IMO.

[theBOSS]

just saw the line for the saints/rams game is set at +12. i'm a saints fan and have watched every game since 2000. take the rams and the points here.

-rams are coming off the bye week looking to get their first win.
-marc bulger was drafted and then cut by the saints.
-jim haslett makes his return to the dome coaching agianst his former team. he may not be the greatest head coach but give him two weeks and he'll think of something.
-steven jackson should be healthy.
-this is an old rivalry from the nfc west

saints struggle with teams that can throw the ball. hell we gave up 300+ to quinn gray,

i see a 27-20 type game

[Daws1089]

some lines that jumped out at me were Stl +12... not sure if im believing NO as a double digit fav ever.

Also, I thought tennessee -3.5 against jax playing its third consecutive road game was a good one. tennessee ha sbene great at home and the defense has been awesome. whether garrard is back or not. i like tennessee to win that one so laying the low number.

and Baltimore comes out a 6.5 fav after last nights showing? Cincy can score and i think getting this many with them is generous. JML is right when he says a lot of balls bounced pitt's way which doomed balt from the start, but i don't think balt can lay this many with that offense.

[Larry]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Yes...the Steelers dominated the Ravens...but I have thought they were **** for a while, and Pittsburgh got so many good bounces in the bad weather, and so many short fields, as well as facing one of the worst offences in the league, that that game was over in the 1st quarter. Everything pointed to an easy Pitt win in that one....but Cleveland has been playing well...has a very good offence that can go toe-to-toe with the Steelers, and will be pumped for this game more than any other this year, going against a division rival for the division lead? 9.5 is insane, IMO...and I will be all over the Brownies on that kind of number.

Definitly have the same thoughts. Steelers off a short week also.

[Larry]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

and the explosive Lions getting points at brutal Arizona...although Detroit hasn't been great on the road....so I don't know for sure if they'll get my money ...but nothing much else there, IMO....we'll see...

Be very careful on the Lions game. Detroit plays in AZ like they do in Wash and Philly.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Boss....yeah, I was looking at the Rams getting all those points off the bye...but the Saints offence is really coming on (now that they rolled over the Jax defence for 538 total yards and 41 points ...there can be no more "haven't played anybody" talk) they have rolled over 4 pretty good defences in a row ...and the Rams have a brutal defence.... but probably a no-play...as a STL backdoor wouldn't surprise me....

Daws....waiting for the Tenn line....wouldn't mind fading Jax again on the road....anything under a FG, it's an automatic play...my books don't have it up yet....


Larry...yeah, the more I look at that game in Zona, the more I don't like either side for some reason....the way the Lions have looked on the road this year...don't know if I can back them....also....why is the better team, on a 3 game win streak, facing a losing team, the outright dog? hmmm. Probably a no-play....

[gameaholic]

About the DET/ARI game. I seen it open at ARI +1 TO ARI -1. My take is that, and I do beleive in the SMAT MONEY move, that the smart money saw ARI getting and jumped on it and made it move to them now giving 1.I also think it's strange that the line is low after DET gave a nice whipping to DEN, makes me wonder cause I know ARI is'nt better than DEN. I also saw that NO was a -13 and now is -11.5, I'm thinking the same as about the SMART MONEY. JML, thats a great thought on the PIT/CLE game. thanks. but as u too like ATL. so do I and about those possible injuries on CAR, I had no idea. thanks. I gotta open an OFF SHORE account now so I can get that +4.5

[yomonte]

Originally Posted by gameaholic

GB is -6.5 I also took a look at every game that had a team -6.5 and they all lost the spread, is there a difference here??

Which book do you use and are they open or closing lines. Please believe me when I tell ya, I'm not busting your balls here. I got lines of 6 1/2 open at Fav 2-3 and closing at 6 1/2 at dog 3-2. The closing were lines that didn't open at 6 1/2. I use Pinny so my stuff is probably different than the book your using.

[yomonte]

BTW, I don't have closing for week 3. I was out of town. But no game opened at 6 1/2. Not sure on closing

[COACH DITKA]

A few early thoughts:

DET/AZ - As stated, line moved from Lions being a 1 point fave to a 1 point dog. Although I just noticed on Sportsbook that Cards opened as a 1 1/2 point fave? Hmm. Regardless, no way Detroit should be back on road right now. I still am not convinced they are good as their record indicates. Yeah, they beat my Bears twice, but gave up 27 points in the one game and won the other b/c Griese apparently thought he was playing for the Lions. They were destroyed on the road by Washington, who is not the offensive juggernaut that puts up 34 points on a team very often. The Eagles also ripped them apart in Philly and we've all seen how bad they are this year. They won their opener vs the Raiders and beat the Vikings, though they allowed Jackson to pass for 166 yards. They ripped the Broncos but they are clearly down and their best win so far was at home vs the Bucs. If you look at their schedule, all their tough games are ahead of them (after 'Zona): NYG, GB, @ MIN, DAL, @ SD, KC, @ GB. As painful as it is for me to admit, GB will take this division (sorry your bold prediction won't come to fruition, Mark Schrelth). I don't think KJ keeps it up on the ground and prolly will get hurt again. The have an average D that will force turnovers but also gives up big plays.

CHI/OAK - Not being a homer here, but think the Bears should take this one. Oakland's offense is enough of a mess that even our sucktacular D can contain. Also, coming off the bye, hopefully everyone is feeling healthier. (However, just remembered that I don't think Bears have traditionally done well after byes). The Oakland D is pretty solid at times but think Griese can muster enough offense in this one, especially if the TEs continue to play a big role in the offense and stretch the field. Only hope he realizes he is supposed to throw to the guys in the same jerseys and that Benson gets his balls out of his ass and stops playing like a little pussy. Bears seem to have done better on the road this season, as they at least have showed more heart as opposed to laying a duck at home like they have in their last 2 games.

BUF/MIA seems like a trap game as the line is only 3 - thought it would be higher myself. Seems possible that Miami could pull this one out, as they had the bye week to recoup the troops and Bills could in a look-ahead spot w/the Pats in prime time next week.

ATL/CAR - Just seems like a game to stay away from. Panthers are too erratic and the Falcons just plain suck. Didn't see their last game vs SF, but they barely beat the 49ers team that is flat-out horrendous. Petrino seemed to have a possible mutiny rising a week or two ago and I'm sure not everything has settle yet.

Anyways, just my two cents. I'll prolly chime in later in the week. GL to all!


Moose

[gameaholic]

YOMONTE, well what I did was look on a site that has all previous games played by all teams and what the spread was, I'm assuming it's the end-closing line that I was looking at, If I made mistakes I do appolagize for any missleading info. Anyhow, wondering..you have an account at PINNY? I thought it said they dont take anyone from the USA so I did'nt even bother with them. I'm with BETJAMAICA. I looked up reputable offshore books and they rate at TOP as well did PINNACLE.

[yomonte]

I didn't bet with Pinny when they were allowing US players. I just use them for my info. If I remember correctly, I had to fill out an application online to play there. After I filled it out, they said they could not accept it and I had to make a copy and fax it in. Then why do it online. Whats going to be different on my online application than the one I fax in. They pissed me off and just decided maybe more **** down the line was coming. I have been betting with Oly for nigh on ten years. They also own BetJamaica, don't quote me on that one LOL. But in your week 10 thread and MNF thread, your lines are all whacked. Pitt never came back to 8 and Det opened at -1 not +1. And on and on. Your week 10 picks and MNF is vague on what you actually picked and no lines or YTD. We try to reserve threads to folks that are posting plays or posting info that is correct. I know in my heart your trying to help, but when you post bogus info, your not helping. Not trying to hurt your feelings chief cause your on the right track. You just have to be dead on with your info. I also think you will go far cause you do try and are on the right track. But please be more specific when you post a play i e Pitt -9 -110 or something along those lines. GL chief. Everyone of us was a newbie at one time. Aliitle more experience and you will go far. I really believe that. So don't get all wound up.

[Daws1089]

Balt already down to -4.5 from -6.5. looks like i missed it.