NFL Week 10

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd ats 48-54 (-28.69 units)
dog ml's 11-20 (-2.79 units)
parlays 0-1 (-1.00 units)
total 59-75 (-32.48 units)

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 (+100)
St Louis Lambs +11 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals pk (-110)
Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-107)

3 units each

Denver Broncos +3 (-110)
Miami Dolphins +3 (-120)
NY Giants +2.5 (-105)

2 units each

Denver Broncos ML +140
Miami Dolphins ML +120
NY Giants ML +115

1 unit each

If I learned anything last week, it's that KC is BAD. And that was with Larry Johnson.

I've fallen for the "KC is good at home, so they should win and cover this short line" stuff one too many times this year, only to turn on the TV and watch them stink, and lose/not cover.

On the other hand, Denver's horrid ATS record is starting to bring value to betting on them, and is partly due to the fact that they were a very good to elite team for many years....therefore being overrated this year ATS in a season when they've fallen back to the pack a bit. Other than the hammering they took last week at DET (everyone gets one mulligan IMO), their other 2 ugly losses were to INDY and SD. KC is not in the same class as any of these 3 teams, especially INDY or SD (yes, KC beat SD, but let's be realistic about who is the better team).

I also believe, however, that Denver is a better team than KC....and that's prior to them losing one of their only 2 real threats on offense to injury in Johnson.

Denver's inability to stop the run has been a big weakness for them this season....and I have no idea who is going to carry the load at RB without Larry Johnson being able to go. Priest Holmes? Maybe if this was 3 yrs ago. Otherwise, they have no one on their roster that I see that has proven to be worthy. I see double teams on Gonzalez all day long, and I highly doubt KC can beat much of anyone by throwing to their WR's.

Go ahead Damon Huard....win this one for KC. If that happens, I'll be wrong, and congrats to KC.

I'll add the rest of the plays and write ups as i have time, (write ups IF i have time). Gotta make breakfast for the kid right now, lol

GLTA today

[JB]

I agree completley on KC......and I am a KC Fan
I basically posted the same thing...lol

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by JB

I agree completley on KC......and I am a KC Fan
I basically posted the same thing...lol

LOL, i haven't gotten a chance to read your thread yet (or anyone else's really), but when I saw you reply to mine, I figured you might be pointing out something I'm missing why KC you thought should win.

Good to see you agree

[GoBigorGoHome]

gl stif, im on jax and stl myself. seems like denver is a trendy pick today so im not sure whether to tail or fade, gl today

[Stifler's Mom]

Jax/Ten:

The Aints jumped all over JAX early last week, and they never could recover. It happens. But, just like DEN, JAX is entitled to one mulligan. They were completely brutal last week vs the Aints, but you can't judge a team (good or bad) on one game. With that being said, I see a tight game in this divisional rivalry.

I also said last week that TEN doesn't really have the arsenal to blow people out, then they went ahead and hammered CAR. Well, I can't change my opinion of a team because of one week.

Point is, if JAX loses a close one last week, and TEN wins a close one, this line would never see +3. It would be somewhere between JAX +1.5 and JAX +2.5. So coming back to the public overreacting to one week's performance, +4.5 brings HUGE value to the Jags today IMHO, especially at +100. That is why I made no ML play on that game.

Oh yea, I suspect Garrard may be back at QB for the Jags today, but even if not, I think this game will be a defensive battle anyway. The Jags defense has too much pride not to bounce back from that thrashing they took last week IMO.

I just have to take what I believe is huge value ATS with the Jags today. No way, IMO, that TEN has a better than even a 40% shot of winning this game by 5+....

[Underdog88]

GL today Stif

[Stifler's Mom]

I'll be editing in the plays as I make them up top, instead of posting them at the bottom, up until game time. After that any added plays will be at the bottom as to keep the integrity of not editing a post that has plays in it after some of the games have started.

Just a FYI for anyone who is interested in my plays...

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

ytd ats 48-54 (-28.69 units)
dog ml's 11-20 (-2.79 units)
parlays 0-1 (-1.00 units)
total 59-75 (-32.48 units)

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 (+100)
St Louis Lambs +11 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals pk (-110)

3 units each

Denver Broncos +3

2 units

Denver Broncos ML +140

1 unit

If I learned anything last week, it's that KC is BAD. And that was with Larry Johnson.

I've fallen for the "KC is good at home, so they should win and cover this short line" stuff one too many times this year, only to turn on the TV and watch them stink, and lose/not cover.

On the other hand, Denver's horrid ATS record is starting to bring value to betting on them, and is partly due to the fact that they were a very good to elite team for many years....therefore being overrated this year ATS in a season when they've fallen back to the pack a bit. Other than the hammering they took last week at DET (everyone gets one mulligan IMO), their other 2 ugly losses were to INDY and SD. KC is not in the same class as any of these 3 teams, especially INDY or SD (yes, KC beat SD, but let's be realistic about who is the better team).

I also believe, however, that Denver is a better team than KC....and that's prior to them losing one of their only 2 real threats on offense to injury in Johnson.

Denver's inability to stop the run has been a big weakness for them this season....and I have no idea who is going to carry the load at RB without Larry Johnson being able to go. Priest Holmes? Maybe if this was 3 yrs ago. Otherwise, they have no one on their roster that I see that has proven to be worthy. I see double teams on Gonzalez all day long, and I highly doubt KC can beat much of anyone by throwing to their WR's.

Go ahead Damon Huard....win this one for KC. If that happens, I'll be wrong, and congrats to KC.

I'll add the rest of the plays and write ups as i have time, (write ups IF i have time). Gotta make breakfast for the kid right now, lol

GLTA today

Did you peek at my card so far....? LMAO. Got all those...

[Stifler's Mom]

Arizona/Detroit:

Following the obvious sharp money that has moved the line from ARZ +1 to ARZ -1.5 at the sharp books against 80%+ of the public playing DET....

[Stifler's Mom]

Miami/Buffalo:

Taking a team off the bye as a home dog is generally idea....especially when you can do it against a team who shouldn't be a road fave in the first place.

I love my Bills, and I think they're taking strides in the right direction, but they go down today IMHO, and a rested Miami team, who easily could already have a few wins and hasn't played nearly as poorly as their 0-8 record would indicate, picks up win #1.

Yes, I do believe Buffalo is the better team, but the better team doesn't always win. This is just a spot play on Miami in a spot which I feel I'm easily getting the best of the line....

[HoosierDaddy]

GL dude....the Buf/Mia line definitely jumped out as me as potentially fishy (no pun intended). I ended up teasing Miami down to 10.5, but I can see them finally winning this week.

[Stifler's Mom]

Green Bay/Minnesota:

Using pick the winner here. Minnesota off a big upset home dog win over San Diego...and are due for a let down in this spot IMO. They are completely one dimensional, and I believe GB will be smart enough to load up and stop Peterson after what he did to SD last week.

Minnesota cannot win a passing shootout with Green Bay IMHO, and that's what this one might come down to if GB stacks up to stop the MIN running game.

Turnovers by GB are the one thing I worry about possibly ruining this play....but Favre has been protecting the ball pretty well this year for the most part, and I'll take my chances.

[SRN1985]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

St Louis Lambs +11 (-110)

Two starters out for the already bad Saints Defense and St Louis getting Jackson back as well

[NittanyLions94]

GL today stif

[Stifler's Mom]

NYG/Dallas:

3 reasons:

1. Revenge game for the Giants from their opening week loss at Dallas
2. Home dog off the bye week
3. Tough to beat 2 straight divisional rivals on the road in consecutive weeks

This game would pull NYG into a tie for the NFC East lead, with both teams having a 6-2 record, splitting their heads up games, and both having 1 divisional loss. I'm not sure where it goes after that (conference record I think, where Dallas would still have the advantage since their other loss was to AFC team New England and the Giants lost to NFC team Green Bay)

In any case, this is the one they need, and will be all out prepared to get with 2 weeks to prepare. Hopefully they won't give Dallas 14 free 1st half points like the Eagles did last week.