***Week 11 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Not a bunch of time right now, but I figured I would get this thread going. Homedogs first


Lions+3 vs. NYG

Ravens+2.5 vs. Browns

Falcons+3 vs. Bucs

Jets+10 vs. Pitt

Bills+14.5 vs. Pats


You could throw the Texans in there, as they opened as a dog.... At first glance, nothing jumps out at me for homedogs. Giants off a loss at Dallas, & IMO the Lions may come back to earth... given their lack of defense paired with the Giants offensive weapons & shaky secondary, I'm going to look into the total o49. No interest in backing the Raven either... bad offense, so I really question their ability to put up enough pts to beat the Browns. I hit the Falcons ML last week, but I don't think I'm going to push my luck & play them 2x in a row. TB has an opportunity to get ahead in the division, as the Panthers have a tough game @ Lambeau. TB is just 1-3 on the road with losses to Sea, Indy & Det.

The Jets are an interesting home dog. Yes they are bad, but should the Steelers be 10 pt faves on the road? They are 2-2 su on the road. One thing that NY has going for them is that they have only lost 2 games by more than 10 pts this season- both were on the road (@NYG & @NE).

I'm very tempted to play on the Bills, but only if Trent plays. No way I back Losman vs. NE....



Other plays that I love- Jags-3- I'm sure many will jump at the opportunity to play on SD as a dog, but if you've been watching, their offense is bad. Rivers on the road vs. a physical D spells trouble for SD. I'm also on the Cincy/Zona over, & will likely be on the Cards ML. Cincy wins 1 week vs. a team that can't move the ball offensively, & now they're a publiuc fave? More thoughts late tonight

[Daws1089]

yes! I am so bored and have the flu. I was hoping a thread like this would get started so i can do something with my life.anyway...

i agree. how in the hell can cincy be favored here. They beat an awful ravens team, and now are favored over a possible playoff team in arizona who can actually score pts and move the football unlike balt.

i also think oakland +5.5 is worth a look. pts will be at a premium in this game. How much of minny's offense was generated by peterson? I dont know the answer, but i would guess a lot of it and I think oakland could take that game.


a line that really confused me was philly -10. now i know my eagles shouldn't be favored at all over most teams, but a double digit favorite over the phins? is this line majorly inflated because the dolphins lost yet again or are the eagles about to go on a run here and dismantle this team? I think this line is begging for dolphins action, since the eagles are so pathetic, but the right play might be no play at all or the eagles.

Tennessee +2.5 is worth a look on mnf too. Tennessee only runs and denver cant stop the run. tennessee's defense is solid too, possible an under 38 play on monday night with all the running these teams do and the decent defense of tennessee, and okay pass defense of denver.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

On the Browns already....I have to back a top 3 offense against a bottom 3 offense only giving a FG. Ravens are ****...cannot move the ball, are over-rated on defence, and look to be banged up still. I would play Cleveland laying a TD, so the 2.5 I already bought I love.

Also looking at Tampa & Zona....but I don't like much else. Might just hammer Cleveland, and leave it at that....

GL

[MiamiSportsFan]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

On the Browns already....I have to back a top 3 offense against a bottom 3 offense only giving a FG. Ravens are ****...cannot move the ball, are over-rated on defence, and look to be banged up still. I would play Cleveland laying a TD, so the 2.5 I already bought I love.

Also looking at Tampa & Zona....but I don't like much else. Might just hammer Cleveland, and leave it at that....

GL

I also jumped on the Browns already, -3

[GamblinMan03]

I think Dallas is gonna blow out the Skins. Half the team is out including Sean Taylor. Basically he missed the 4th quarter last week and we gave up 20 points to a very bad Eagles team. Romo will throw all over our weak defense that Greg Williams runs.

Lay the points. Doesnt matter what kind of rivalary it is, Dallas is one of the best teams in the league and will win this one by 4 touchdowns.

[NittanyLions94]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Other plays that I love- Jags-3- I'm sure many will jump at the opportunity to play on SD as a dog, but if you've been watching, their offense is bad. Rivers on the road vs. a physical D spells trouble for SD. I'm also on the Cincy/Zona over, & will likely be on the Cards ML. Cincy wins 1 week vs. a team that can't move the ball offensively, & now they're a publiuc fave? More thoughts late tonight

IMO Jags -3 is the strongest play on the board and I already played it for 3 units.

[Niners<Pats]

Lucky me I got the browns -2.5
Also took the pats -15 bills barely squeeked by the fins

Kinda bummed I took saints -1 now seeing they're +1 o well ill leave more picks later on

[Larry]

I don't know about the browns. Second of back to back weeks on the road. They didn't play as well on offense last week as the score would indicate. They had a kickoff return for a TD and a 90yrd return to set up another TD. Baltimore is finally gonna bench old man Mcnair. Plus betting Cleve just looks to damn easy. Although I will say it takes big balls right now to be opposite of a JML play.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Looks like Marshawn Lynch is out for Buffalo. Yikes. I was on the fence for laying 14.5 points with NE, but Buffalo's only chance, IMO...was to run the ball with Lynch...burn some time with Brady off the field, and MAYBE, MAYBE have a slim chance at a home cover (with the help of a lucky turnover or special teams play). Now I think that is very much less likely. Pats coming off a bye, in prime time against a backfield of Losman & backup Anthony Thomas? I mean that offence WITH Lynch was not able to score ANY points through 3 quarters against winless Miami!! WTF is going to happen aginst the Pats? I'm laying the 2 TDs (bought the hook) ...

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[yomonte]

UDog, ya know I love ya but got dammilt LOL

Lions+3 vs. NYG

When I seen the Lions favored, I really didn't understand it other than Det being at home. I seen a side of Det last week i didn't like. Giants are just a tad behind Dallas. Lions did move from a fav to a dog and I never understood that, meaning why was Det favored.

Ravens+2.5 vs. Browns

This game is a stay away no matter who you like. Clev had two good plays that put them up ov Pitt before Pitt came back. If you held a gun to my head, I'd take Clev

Falcons+3 vs. Bucs

Garcia is probably one of the top 5 QB's in the league. Some QB's just have the O line and weapons down field. Falcons...AH Nevermind

Jets+10 vs. Pitt

Jets gonna get murdelized

Bills+14.5 vs. Pats

And so are the Bills

[Daws1089]

I know SF is horrible, but how exactly can st. louis be a road fav? Win one game and magically become a favorite on the road? I don't think so. My dilemma is i dont have any confidence in SF, but i dont like to lay pts with a 1 and 9 team

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

I know SF is horrible, but how exactly can st. louis be a road fav? Win one game and magically become a favorite on the road? I don't think so. My dilemma is i dont have any confidence in SF, but i dont like to lay pts with a 1 and 9 team

Don't know either, but it has to due w/the fact that at least St. Louis has shown signs of life. Dilfer starting again for SF and that offense is absolutely atrocious as teams stack the box against Gore as they have no one to throw the ball and no one to throw the ball to except Davis, who has underachieved (and not mentioning D Jax as he's always beat up). No idea how a team can go out and spend 80 million on a CB when they have more holes in their team than swiss cheese. Could be a sucker line but I would assume that Bulger can put up a decent amount of points w/S Jax and Holt while their less than stellar D will look pretty good against college-level offense.

[Scorpion]

I just love St-Louis this week. Look for them to play spoilers the rest of the year. Its my biggest game of the week.


GL on whatever you choose.

[Daws1089]

these lines are not budging this week... a couple of these are tricky

balt +2.5 despite nearly 3/4 of the bets on clev

hou +1 despite nearly 3/4 of the bets on no

schaub and andre johnson are back this week. public seems to be in love with no since they had that run of wins a few weeks back. i dont think NO is nearly as good on the road though.

atl +3 despite 3/4 of the bets on tb

i can see atlanta taking that game at home. tb hasnt played well on the road this year:

@sea L 6-20
@car W 20-7
@indy L 33-14
@det L 23-16

they've gotten the rest of their 5 wins at home. Atl has put together two solid efforts in a row and has a little confidence now. i dont think they will be looking forward to indy next week because at 3-6 you can't overlook anybody. TB also hasn't been as good against the run as they usually are and I think a healthy dose of dunn and norwood and a solid defense atlanta can win outright. Roddy white also having a career season. Alge crumpler getting healthy is a good thing too. Garcia has been complaining of a sore arm too so we'll se eif that has any effect on this game.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

YUP...I'm definitely staying away from TB & NO....but I still love Cleveland.