JML Week 13 >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Week 13: 1-0, +3.76
NFL YTD: 67-30, +122.33 Units

12 winning weeks in a row.....started off this week with a big win in Dallas, as they hang on against Aaron Rodgers! Not my favourite card this week, but I managed to find 4 more sides on Sunday...


Dolphins -1 -110 vs Jets
An 0-11 team giving points? That means they win, IMO. Jets a winless road team. Jets have their two top WR's hobbled and questionable. Miami actually playing decent ball hanging tough against good opposition losing close games against Pit/Phi/Buf/NYG. These are actually two pretty evenly matched teams, so I see no reason not to take the home team desperately looking for a win. Perfect spot this week, IMO.

Colts -6 -113 vs Jaguars
I see this line as a similar one to the Dallas line ....Jags are perceived as good, are playing well....have Gerrard back, and are thought of as a team that plays Indy well....so why are they opening getting a TD against an injured Indy team? Because the books want Jax action bigtime. If they wanted Indy money all they had to do was open at -4. They got what they wanted with the public on Jax here...and Indy is traditionally a huge public team. I Love the Colts....and having two of the best defensive players out for Jax helps as well. Peterson is a huge loss for Jax. That Jax defence also vulnerable against the pass (ranked 28th), and if you give Manning time (Peterson/Stroud out), we all know what he can do. Indy also on a psuedo-byeweek, having had 10 days off since the Thanksgiving blowout. Like the Colts to roll ay home in this one.

Chargers -5.5 -109 vs Chiefs
Revenge game....Chiefs upset SD at SD ..I don't see then sweeping both games. Pick a winner here, and forget the points. I pick the better talent, and I cannot see KC going 2-0 against the Bolts. Looking past this "Arrowhead mystique" as well...yeah it's tough to play there, I get it...but KC blows, Arrowhead or not...they are 2-4 at Arrowhead including losses to horrible Oakland and Cincy, so it's not like Arrowhead automatically gets them wins...it just might keep the score under a 20 point loss. But I have a feeling SD shows up for this one....with the division still there for the taking...and blows out KC.

Browns ML -101 vs Cards
Decided to make it a play. Cards are a weird team, but they must be down after getting lit up by the horrible Niners...and with the injuries to their key secondary pieces, a secondary that was already 20th in the league....Anderson and the Browns should light it up in the desert. I mean, just look what Dilfer and the worst offense in the league did to them! Crazy talk. Losing Wilson and Green are huge against CLE, IMO. the only thing that scared me about this play was the Cleveland defence....but I think coming off one of their better performances against the Texans...where they held them pretty much in check, and forced turnovers....I think they do enough to win a shootout by a TD+.

3 Units Each


Decided to lay off Buffalo (RB injuries) and Detroit (I'd actually play Minny now if forced into action). I was also looking at a Denver/Oakland OVER, but I'm not much of a successful totals guy. I do think it's a shootout though, with both teams OVER teams...and Denver's offence scoring a ton. I'll wait to see if other total players here at Predictem like it as well, then I might add it. Also still undecided on the Sunday Nighter, but I always make some kind of play on the prime-timers...probably will make a small play on Cincy, just to have some action, as I would not feel comfortable laying a full TD on that field in a rivalry game...


GL Everyone

[Whaleydog]

GL this week JML.......I have a prop bet on Miami going winless that pays 10/1 odds..I am thinking of taking Miami just as a hedge, I think of all the teams miami has left,this is the most winnable game left for them (IMO) the others being @Buff,Balt,@NE and Cinci. Any thoughts as of how to make the most from this crazy prop wager ?........Thx and Keep up the great work

[Niners<Pats]

Chargers -5.5 -109 vs Chiefs
Revenge game....Chiefs upset SD at SD ..I don't see then sweeping both games. Pick a winner here, and forget the points. I pick the better talent, and I cannot see KC going 2-0 against the Bolts. Looking past this "Arrowhead mystique" as well...yeah it's tough to play there, I get it...but KC blows, Arrowhead or not...they are 2-4 at Arrowhead including losses to horrible Oakland and Cincy, so it's not like Arrowhead automatically gets them wins...it just might keep the score under a 20 point loss. But I have a feeling SD shows up for this one....with the division still there for the taking...and blows out KC.

Just read that the chargers are 1-9 on the road against the chiefs...line also started at -4.5 and jumped to 6.6 suggesting heavy action on the chargers...u never kno the chiefs could pull through!

[Daws1089]

just wanted to correct you. KC did not lose to cincinnati. they won 27-20.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Daws.....yup read that wrong! lol. Still 2-4 at home, and coming off a home loss to lowly Oakland. Was just trying to point out that I don't think Arrowhead is an impossible situation with the home team that plays there right now.

niners/pats.....not much of a trend guy, so that 1-9 thing didn't really come up in my capping....some result from 10 years ago with completely different players never means a thing to me...

GL guys...

[Niners<Pats]

O I totally agree with the chargers stomping kc after last week full of confidence I was just making an alternative angle some might want to look at!
Definately starting to lean to the niners but they're my team so it might be a bad choice for me to jump on them after one win but what have they got to lose against the panthers? Just give gore the ball and stop throwing to vernon

[Daws1089]

one thing that supports SD is that the despite how many bets are coming in on SD, the line keeps moving. So atleast the line hasn't stuck at 4.5. I think that is a good sign.

[FlyersFan]

JML- GL!...this weekend.....

[hodown]

WL shows Jax at 53% and Sportsbook shows Indi at 71%. where is everyone getting Jax as a public play?

[Stifler's Mom]

I do see 78% on JAX ML, but only 48% on them ATS at sports insights. If Jax is a public play, I'd say it's slightly, although it is weird to not see the public pounding the crap out of the Colts for a change....

[flmmkrz]

GL jml, Im on the colts as well.

[Underdog88]

GL today JML....

[yukoncornelius]

JML, I agree exactly the same way about IND/JAC ... was thinking about that last night. We know what happened with dallas and GB, lets hope for the same today

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks guys...Stif, hodown...I like to get my results from wagerline....very public site IMO...lotsa douchbags looking for free prizes, lol....and Jax has been about 55% ATS all week.....but 55% against Indy is more like 60+% IMO, as like Stif said, Indy is always a huge public team...

flm...nice to see you back in the NFL scene!

Thanks guys...GL today....might be looking to add 2 more....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Adding...

Broncos/Raiders OVER 41.5 -104

As I stated above, I've loved this over all week...but didn't have confident in my totals capping....but now that I see UD all over the same play...I'm adding it...I don't see how this isn't a shootout...

3 Units