***MNF 12/3/07 - New England vs. Baltimore - Official Discussion***

[AddictedToBetting]

Line movement from Sportsbook.

Sportsbook Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
11/26/07 2:00:51 PM 20/-110 (Open) 51.5 -110 (Open)
11/27/07 8:25:45 PM 20/-110 51 -110
11/27/07 8:55:46 PM 20.5/-110 51 -110
11/28/07 11:00:50 AM 20.5/-110 50.5 -110
11/29/07 2:00:54 PM 20/-110 50.5 -110
11/29/07 5:55:46 PM 20/-110 50 -110
11/29/07 7:15:46 PM 20/-110 49.5 -110
11/30/07 12:50:46 AM 20/-105 49.5 -110
11/30/07 11:50:55 PM 20/-110 49.5 -110
12/01/07 7:50:45 PM 20/-110 49 -110
12/02/07 12:20:46 PM 19/-110 48.5 -110
12/02/07 1:20:45 PM 19/-110 48 -110


I hate New England so bad, but damn why are they giving Baltimore this many points? Does anyone here knows why they open this up at NE -20? I mean, I understand they want the public to hit on Baltimore really hard, but I still don't understand why NE is giving this many points to a team that has really good defense. Does Baltimore suck that much? Someone that is more knowledgeable than me in football, please help me out.

[FlyersFan]

ummmmm well, the way i see it, if NE scores 21 points they cover the number.

BAL has the 3rd ranked run D but so what, NE never runs the ball anyway. They are a middle of the pack defense in about every category except vs. the run. NE will pick them apart just like they have everyone else. BAL offense is about as bad as it gets. Just my 2 cents

[wsox08]

I'm seriously thinking about taking NE -19. Baltimore has a pathetic offense and won't be able to keep up with the Patriots.

[Stifler's Mom]

On paper it looks like an easy NE win....but I think pride comes into play a little bit tonight.

Plus the Eagles showed everyone else in this copycat league how to exploit NE. Pressure Brady and be physical with their receivers, and you can slow them. I don't say stop, because I don't think that's possible...but if you slow that offense, and make their defense stay on the field, you can get points. BTW, Philly also showed how to move the ball on NE using the center of the field.

Now can the crappy BALT offense do any of that? That's the question....cause even though the BALT defense is middle of the pack, they have some hard hitters, and alot of pride. They will take this challenge head on, and will do everything in their power to not be embarrassed tonight on MNF, IMHO.

The public has been strongly on NE all week as well, and the line has come down from -20.5 to -18.5 (plenty of +19.5's are still available, however)

Rememeber 2 years ago when Indy went 13-0 and looked completely unstoppable? Then they ran into SD, who thrashed them, and showed the league how to beat em. They won like 1 game the rest of the year and got brutalized (physically) by PIT in their first playoff game.

Not saying BALT will win, but i do believe they have the blueprint on how to keep it respectable, thanks to the Eagles....and a +20 or so home dog in the NFL is just ridiculous, lol.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Not saying BALT will win, but i do believe they have the blueprint on how to keep it respectable, thanks to the Eagles....and a +20 or so home dog in the NFL is just ridiculous, lol.

i agree completely, but BAL might have the worst offense in the NFL and they don't have a westbrook and Feely would be a HOF upgrade over Boller or anyone else that plays QB there. If NE jumps out to an early lead, GL if you are the Ravens playing catch up with that passing game. It's one thing to know how to do it, it's another to actually have the weapons to do so. All the value is out of the lines at this point for NE games, IMO. If you didn't make your money in like weeks 1-8 with this team, you missed the boat.

but yeah, laying -20's in the NFL is rediculous, but on paper it's understandable......

[x3ricx]

Brady has a shoulder problem and there probly gonna be on moss and wilkens but who knows the ravens vs Ne.. cmon now... thats like a givaway donno about -19 but i do like the Fq what do you guys think?

[navy_blue99]

Check on the weather prior to kickoff. It's been pretty nasty in the NE today. But if the weather's fine, lay the 20 points. Baltimore's defense is nothing what it used to be, and their offense is just horrid. They've been banged up and have been giving up big plays.

I think New England's game last week had more to do with them just playing flat. I look for them to be back on cue tonight and destroy Batimore. I'm thinking 35-7. Somthing in that ballpark, but check the weather.

[x3ricx]

Originally Posted by navy_blue99

Check on the weather prior to kickoff. It's been pretty nasty in the NE today. But if the weather's fine, lay the 20 points. Baltimore's defense is nothing what it used to be, and their offense is just horrid. They've been banged up and have been giving up big plays.

I think New England's game last week had more to do with them just playing flat. I look for them to be back on cue tonight and destroy Batimore. I'm thinking 35-7. Somthing in that ballpark, but check the weather.

Yea that weather and brady out might be some trickery NE will win, but -20 hmm depends on that weather.

[navy_blue99]

Just checking weather.com, they're calling for occasional gusts over 50mph tonight. If that's the case, i may lay off of the point spread. Baltimore's over/under point total is 14 for the game, so i may look at taking the under there. Not sure how they are going to get 14 points unless it's off turnovers, but the Patriots rarely turn it over.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by navy_blue99

Just checking weather.com, they're calling for occasional gusts over 50mph tonight.

50mph.

Well...one way to look at it is that for half the game....Brady and Moss will be WITH that wind....and for half the game, Boller and his mates will be AGAINST that wind. UGLY! lol

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

50mph.

Well...one way to look at it is that for half the game....Brady and Moss will be WITH that wind....and for half the game, Boller and his mates will be AGAINST that wind. UGLY! lol

last thing Boller needs is something else to misdirect his passes.......actually looking at it from the positive side, maybe it's what he needs to actually hit a receiver in the numbers.....his receivers should be able to figure that out (though i am not too high on the average IQ of a lot of these guys)..........you would just do the following:

you take the average pass which is usually 3-4 yards behind you on a calm day, then you factor in the wind and which way it is blowing....say it is blowing the ball 4-5 yards from right to left. So if you lined up on the right side and were running a 15 yard in, you would go to the spot you were supposed to be in....then move 3 1/2 yards behind yourself......then adjust about 4 1/2 yards in front and that ball should be there......

[Horfin]

I, for the life of me, can not figure out why the line is dropping:

1. NE Has killed worthless teams and some good teams

2. The blueprint thing: I think this logic is flawed for two reasons: (a) NE knows what Philly did and knows how to change it; (b) Boller is not that good of a qb and there has never been an accusation that Baltimore is an offensive team

3. Look ahead game: NE plays Pitt next week

4. Public has the NE/PHI game in their heads

5. Road wins for NE have been 24, 21, 21, 21,4 and 46.

6. Cincinnati's vaunted defense held Baltimore to 7 points

7. But ****ty Cleveland's defense held baltimore to 30 points

I think the question is: Is this more of a NE vs. Washington game or a NE vs. Philadelphia game.

I think it is more like the NE vs. Washington. I think the Pats are ready to show that last week was an abhoration and not the norm. Which all the stats point to anyway

Horfin

[x3ricx]

That Wind will make NE shoot to far to there recivers, and Ravens will shoot to short and Fumble most likly, expect turnovers tonight boys and GL !!

[FearTheRaven]

Ravens ML!!!!

Hahahaha.

Billick sucks. This coach has single-handedly lost 3 games this year by himself.

McGahee should get a ton of carries tonight. Wind is unreal right now. Should be a nice crosswind on the field tonight.

Well I'm going down to the stadium to get wasted and watch my team get wasted.

If this team has any heart at all they keep this thing close, not sure what will happen tonight.

This offense is god awful.

Need a few turnovers from the Patriots and none from the Ravens if they want a chance.

GL guys could be a long night

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Horfin

2. The blueprint thing: I think this logic is flawed for two reasons: (a) NE knows what Philly did and knows how to change it; (b) Boller is not that good of a qb and there has never been an accusation that Baltimore is an offensive team

I was kind of thinking the same thing with the "Ravens get the Philly game tape" theory. Won't Belichek (who is a hell of a better coach than Billick) be going over those SAME game tapes from the Philly game and making adjustments? Works both ways. I would put my money on a tactician like Belichek making the correct adjustments over a dink like Billick getting his ****ty offence to expose anything he sees. We'll see...