Week 14 Discussion

[Daws1089]

CHI +3 @WASH O/U 37.5

i don't really care for this game at all. Two shitty teams. I wonder if last week's loss to buff will do washington in for the rest of the year. I cant help but wonder if that game will cost joe gibbs his job. Sadly, the skins are still playing for a playoff spot. I can't take either team here, but I might be interested in the over 37.5

CAR +10.5 @JAX O/U 38

Under 38 here. Carolina's offense is terrible. yea they scored on SF, but JAX defense is on a different level than SF. Both teams love to run and i can see this being a grind it out type of game for JAX. if the number stays over 10 i might grab the pts.

DAL-10.5@DET 0/U 51.5

this line makes me want to take detroit, but they are in such a tailspin. even getting over 10 at home I don't know if i can back them. the loss of roy williams to detroit doesn't really hurt them as much as some may think, they werent using him on offense anyway. Detroit will have to play keep away and really establish the run and then get the pass game going. If they just rely on the pass from the get go this one could be a 20 pt win for dallas. Lean to under 51.5

MIA +7@BUFF O/U 36.5

Miami is bad, we all know that. Getting 7 still doesnt make me want to take them, plus they are on the road. Nobody wants to be the first team to lose to a shitty team so I think buffalo will be focused. If marshawn Lynch plays, i will consider buffalo a play. Over 36.5 could also be a good one.

NYG +3@PHI O/U 42

ummm nyg +3? this line is begging for giants cash clearly. How the heck is philly favored after their debacle last week? Well the truth is, this is a division rivalry, eagles are at home. If feeley doesnt play catch with tatupu for most of the game, the eagles trounce seattle. nyg was hanging by a thread against chicago and miraculously pulled it off. BWestbrook usually kills the giants and he was missing the last time these two played. Over 42 looks to be the best play here. Eagles defense was put in some bad spots against seattle, but they still had some terrible attempts at tackling. Eli is usually good for a couple turnovers against the eagles so maybe one of them will be turned into a score. have to go with eagles here, the books want us to take nyg.

OAK +10.5 @GB 0/U 42

It appears as if favre will play. Oakland on the road doesnt sound too appetizing. It will be interesting to see if woodson,and the DE whose name i cant spell will play as they make a world of a difference for that defense or defence as jml would say. I'll lean to GB here.

SD PK@TENN O/U 40.5

When healthy, Tennessee has the defense to win this game and contain LT. Rivers on the road continues to be woeful. Tennessee will most likely stack the box and force rivers to beat them. I don't know if i like SD on the road again. I would side with tennessee here.

AZ +7@SEA O/U 45

Well, i guess i should give seattle some credit for coming into philly and winning and winning 4 in a row, but I don't think they are a good team. However, AZ is not that great either. This game means a lot to both as the division is at stake. I would lean to over 45 here. Both teams can move the football and both defenses are just ok. Fitzgerald should play this week which will help the az offense. Seattle's run game still blows. The run was working so well against phily and then they would just start passing for no season. Lean to AZ and over

MINN -8.5 @SF O/U 39.5

As i get further down the list, it doesnt appear that there are too many pick the winner games this week. Minn has just been ripping through their opponents the past few weeks. I don't see why this week would be any different. SF has a terrible run D and all minn does is run. Minnesota will likely stack the box and force dilfer to pass which will result in 3 and outs and some INTs. Tavaris Jackson is palying much better too. he is playing within himself and not doing too much. I would lean minn and under. If this line creeps higher like to 9.5 i would probly be off of minn.

CLEV -3.5 @NYJ O/U 47.5
Cleveland favored on the road for a 2nd straight week? we saw that they are not very good on the road last week. the jets should be able to take advantage of their terrible D and put up somepts, but i think 47.5 is too high. More like a 23-20 game. i like jets in this one and under.

KC +6.5 @DEN O/U 37.5

umm why is denver favored again? this team still sucks people. Idon't care if KC is bad too, this is a division rivalry and the chiefs will certainly be up for it. Denver continues to get respect that they really dont deserve. I would lean to KC and Over here. neither team can stop one another.

NO -4.5 @ATL O/U 42.5

i think a lot of us found out the hard way with NO. they suck. They were favored at home last week and were lucky to even score 20 pts and now they are an even bigger fav on the road this week? Atl defense is not horrible, but bobby petrino's lover boy could be at QB. as of right now i like atlanta.

waiting for lines on PITT/NE,IND/BALT,TB/HOU, and STL/CIN

As of today, I would be betting:

NYJ +3.5
PHI-3
KC +6.5
TENN PK

[x3ricx]

thats true bout Denver, but when they play at home there CRACKED OUT!

Liking that over in NYG game

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

CHI +3 @WASH O/U 37.5

i don't really care for this game at all. Two shitty teams. I wonder if last week's loss to buff will do washington in for the rest of the year. I cant help but wonder if that game will cost joe gibbs his job. Sadly, the skins are still playing for a playoff spot. I can't take either team here, but I might be interested in the over 37.5

CAR +10.5 @JAX O/U 38

Under 38 here. Carolina's offense is terrible. yea they scored on SF, but JAX defense is on a different level than SF. Both teams love to run and i can see this being a grind it out type of game for JAX. if the number stays over 10 i might grab the pts.

DAL-10.5@DET 0/U 51.5

this line makes me want to take detroit, but they are in such a tailspin. even getting over 10 at home I don't know if i can back them. the loss of roy williams to detroit doesn't really hurt them as much as some may think, they werent using him on offense anyway. Detroit will have to play keep away and really establish the run and then get the pass game going. If they just rely on the pass from the get go this one could be a 20 pt win for dallas. Lean to under 51.5

MIA +7@BUFF O/U 36.5

Miami is bad, we all know that. Getting 7 still doesnt make me want to take them, plus they are on the road. Nobody wants to be the first team to lose to a shitty team so I think buffalo will be focused. If marshawn Lynch plays, i will consider buffalo a play. Over 36.5 could also be a good one.

NYG +3@PHI O/U 42

ummm nyg +3? this line is begging for giants cash clearly. How the heck is philly favored after their debacle last week? Well the truth is, this is a division rivalry, eagles are at home. If feeley doesnt play catch with tatupu for most of the game, the eagles trounce seattle. nyg was hanging by a thread against chicago and miraculously pulled it off. BWestbrook usually kills the giants and he was missing the last time these two played. Over 42 looks to be the best play here. Eagles defense was put in some bad spots against seattle, but they still had some terrible attempts at tackling. Eli is usually good for a couple turnovers against the eagles so maybe one of them will be turned into a score. have to go with eagles here, the books want us to take nyg.

OAK +10.5 @GB 0/U 42

It appears as if favre will play. Oakland on the road doesnt sound too appetizing. It will be interesting to see if woodson,and the DE whose name i cant spell will play as they make a world of a difference for that defense or defence as jml would say. I'll lean to GB here.

SD PK@TENN O/U 40.5

When healthy, Tennessee has the defense to win this game and contain LT. Rivers on the road continues to be woeful. Tennessee will most likely stack the box and force rivers to beat them. I don't know if i like SD on the road again. I would side with tennessee here.

AZ +7@SEA O/U 45

Well, i guess i should give seattle some credit for coming into philly and winning and winning 4 in a row, but I don't think they are a good team. However, AZ is not that great either. This game means a lot to both as the division is at stake. I would lean to over 45 here. Both teams can move the football and both defenses are just ok. Fitzgerald should play this week which will help the az offense. Seattle's run game still blows. The run was working so well against phily and then they would just start passing for no season. Lean to AZ and over

MINN -8.5 @SF O/U 39.5

As i get further down the list, it doesnt appear that there are too many pick the winner games this week. Minn has just been ripping through their opponents the past few weeks. I don't see why this week would be any different. SF has a terrible run D and all minn does is run. Minnesota will likely stack the box and force dilfer to pass which will result in 3 and outs and some INTs. Tavaris Jackson is palying much better too. he is playing within himself and not doing too much. I would lean minn and under. If this line creeps higher like to 9.5 i would probly be off of minn.

CLEV -3.5 @NYJ O/U 47.5
Cleveland favored on the road for a 2nd straight week? we saw that they are not very good on the road last week. the jets should be able to take advantage of their terrible D and put up somepts, but i think 47.5 is too high. More like a 23-20 game. i like jets in this one and under.

KC +6.5 @DEN O/U 37.5

umm why is denver favored again? this team still sucks people. Idon't care if KC is bad too, this is a division rivalry and the chiefs will certainly be up for it. Denver continues to get respect that they really dont deserve. I would lean to KC and Over here. neither team can stop one another.

NO -4.5 @ATL O/U 42.5

i think a lot of us found out the hard way with NO. they suck. They were favored at home last week and were lucky to even score 20 pts and now they are an even bigger fav on the road this week? Atl defense is not horrible, but bobby petrino's lover boy could be at QB. as of right now i like atlanta.

waiting for lines on PITT/NE,IND/BALT,TB/HOU, and STL/CIN

As of today, I would be betting:

NYJ +3.5
PHI-3
KC +6.5
TENN PK

I agree with all of those, and, unless something comes up to change my mind, will definitely be ok NYJ, PHI and TEN. KC scares me cause it's pick the winner, and although Denver sucks, I am having a hard time justifying to myself to take KC to win outright on the road....as they suck equally bad.

Funny when I read this though, I had already picked out NYJ, PHI and TEN as my best 3 plays of the week, and honestly, the rest of the board looks like crap to me too.

Indy -10 over Baltimore looks somewhat good though. Talk about a letdown spot for Baltimore, and Indy can clinch the division with a W....and I believe the #2 spot with a win and a PIT loss to NE.

Plus the refs are mad at Baltimore and love Indy

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Nice start to the thread, Daws!

And congrats to Ravens backers


Like the Bears +3 this week. One of my favourite plays last week was a fade of the Skins...but unfortunately the Bills RB situation got me off it for some reason. I think this is an even worse spot for Washington. Again, I hate capping this way....but TONS of emotion all week for these poor guys. Probably thousands of interviews not related to football. Losing a heartbreaker against Buffalo on a bonehead Gibbs mistake. Funeral the next day for a brother. Then a game three days later? Probably thousands more non-related questions, and a likely un-inspired practice week, IMO. This Thursday scheduling couldn't have been worse. Portis also might be injured? Much like last week, and probably even more so, this team (who in case you haven't noticed, have lost 4 games in a row), should not be laying points to anyone...and I actually think the Bears win outright. Chicago, with all their injuries and personnel problems have actually been a pretty good road team this year going 3-3 including close losses at tough Seattle & GB.

Also already on the Vikings -7 -120. Got it early b/c I know the public will likely hammer the Vikings all week, but this is one game that they will have right IMO. Minny are one of the hottest teams in the league....have a great 1-2 punch at RB....and should run ALL OVER SF and their 26th ranked rush defence. SF also has a horrible offence, and I can't see this Vikings team, with their eye on a playoff spot losing straight up to the Niners...so it's a pick a winner at the -7 early line I was able to get yesterday. I think it's up to 8 now, but I would still play the fav here all the way up to 10. The shitty Panthers dominated this Niner team last week....just awful.

Will also likely back the Steelers +13.5.....that sure seems like alot of points to give a pretty good Steeler defence, and a team that can traditionally run the ball well. That NE defence looked horrible against the run...and in these outdoor winter games, I think the advantage has to go to the team that runs the ball better and stops the run better, as you cannot always count on the passing game in the incliment weather. Bigtime advantage Steelers. I was real surprised this wasn't under 10, with the performances of NE the past two weeks....and they could be facing their stiffist challenge yet. Might have to join HD & UD on that Pitt ML as well, as this Pats team looks ripe for the picking in a streak-stopper....but I will definitely be on the dog number Sunday...

That might be it for me....I was successfull all year, just playing my 3 or 4 favourite plays every week, and I got away from that last week, adding as ton of losers....might just stick with these three...although I'm looking at three more possibilities...

The Chiefs +7. Broncos giving a TD?? Please.

Indy -9 ...although they've been screwing me lately giving up some backdoors in the last couple minutes! But like Stif said....classic letdown...and it might be tough to keep b2b games close against probably the best 2 teams in the NFL.

And I agree... Philly -2.5 looks good too. Home team wins that one.


GL everyone....looking forward to everyone's insight!

[Daws1089]

very good point about KC. they are so bad and i dont know if i believe in them enough to win at denver. That would mean denver would need to hand kc the game. Denver with an outside shot at the division too.

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Nice start to the thread, Daws!

Like the Bears +3 this week. One of my favourite plays last week was a fade of the Skins...but unfortunately the Bills RB situation got me off it for some reason. I think this is an even worse spot for Washington. Again, I hate capping this way....but TONS of emotion all week for these poor guys. Probably thousands of interviews not related to football. Losing a heartbreaker against Buffalo on a bonehead Gibbs mistake. Funeral the next day for a brother. Then a game three days later? Probably thousands more non-related questions, and a likely un-inspired practice week, IMO. This Thursday scheduling couldn't have been worse. Portis also might be injured? Much like last week, and probably even more so, this team (who in case you haven't noticed, have lost 4 games in a row), should not be laying points to anyone...and I actually think the Bears win outright. Chicago, with all their injuries and personnel problems have actually been a pretty good road team this year going 3-3 including close losses at tough Seattle & GB.

GL everyone....looking forward to everyone's insight!

Well said JML, I was going to write up a little for this game but you covered it pretty well. I completely agree with the 'Skins being in a horrible spot - a short week following all the events yesterday and the past week. Also, if you look at their schedule, they have been so inconsistent this year and often alternate wins and losses.
Every big win ---> come out and lay an egg in the next game.
Every awful loss ---> somehow play pretty well the next game.

Sickening loss to DET in WK 4 after 4Q collapse and appears season is gonna suck ...
Come out and play a great 2H vs GB and have the phenomenal comeback win to apparently get the season back on track ...
Only to get on their knees and blow it against Minny and letting AP run wild ...
Somehow play well enough to pull out the win against Oak-Town, w/the D looking respectable and giving fans hope ...
To then proceed to blowing SEA game after their great start ...
And have all the wind seemingly out of their sails and set to get blown out versus Denver to pull off an incredible comeback I was there to witness and give us hope again ...
Then obviously pull the chokejob against the G-Men and their pud of a QB.

Not saying Bears will win to follow the alternating win-loss trend they've been working on for the last 8 weeks or so but just seems that we win the games we shouldn't and lose the ones we should win.

BEARS ML this week!


Moose

[Texas hook 'em]

Detroit try to establish the run? Sounds like a good idea, but detroit hasn't had that on the agenda all year, and the cowboys run d is very good. I'm just hoping dallas doesn't get smoked in the secondary, that seems like the only way to beat dallas this year. I never play the cowboys since I'm so biased, but their defense should keep detroit in third and longs with sacks and incomplete passes IMO. Vikings could win by 20 easily IMO.

[Daws1089]

detroit established the run the entire first half against GB and only when they got away from it was when they began to fall behind..

[birdsfan5]

Well JML you talked me into the Bears very nice writeup with tons of great points

[Ming the Merciless]

I couldn't back KC either. After the last two weeks of dismal play from the Broncos, they will be pumped up to be at home. Looks like it might snow by Sunday, the Donkeys normally play the Chiefs pretty hard here at Mile High. Leaning to Over, but I think it might be like a 17-6 game.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Ming the Merciless

I couldn't back KC either. After the last two weeks of dismal play from the Broncos, they will be pumped up to be at home. Looks like it might snow by Sunday, the Donkeys normally play the Chiefs pretty hard here at Mile High. Leaning to Over, but I think it might be like a 17-6 game.

I agree...after futher review....I'm off the KC game....lots of better option out there...

[Ming the Merciless]

Say, I agree with the Bears, But line not moving even though majority on the bears. What do you think, Vegas wants more Bears action or what?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Ming the Merciless

Say, I agree with the Bears, But line not moving even though majority on the bears. What do you think, Vegas wants more Bears action or what?

I see the action pretty even....53% on the Bears....

[homedawg]

SI shows chi 63% ats & 91% ml .... pinny opened was -3 +100, currently -3 -109...

[Larry]

Serious trivia question:

When was the last time the Lions converted a 3rd and 10 or longer?