Daft Picks week XIV

[daft_picks]

Been a slow start since joining up here, hoping to have a positive week this week though!

Tonight's bears/skins game is a tricky one to cap, but to me it seems like it's the bears game to win or lose. On a normal week I would say the skins have the edge (although just barely) but this is anything but a normal week. Again, tough game to cap, but as JML has discussed I just see a high possibility of a distracted washington team.

In the end think chicago might take this one, so will play some on both the +3 and the ML.

2.2 to win 2 units Chi +3 over Wash LOSS -2
1 to win 1.45 units Chicago ML (+145) LOSS -1.45
.75 to win 1 unit PROP Chicago +1 (+135) first downs vs. Washington WIN +1
.5 to win .725 units PROP will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game NO (+145) WIN +.725

2 Parlays (should lay off these but what the hell they're fun)
Chicago +145
Minnesota -400
Indianapolis -440
.5 to win 1.4 units (LOSS -.5)

Chicago Bears - moneyline (+140)
Minnesota Vikings - spread -8½ (-110)
Indianapolis Colts - moneyline (-440)
New York Giants/Philadelphia Eagles - total Over 42 (-110)
Carolina Panthers/Jacksonville Jaguars - total Under 38 (-110)
Buffalo Bills - moneyline (-320)
.33 to win 8.61 units (LOSS -.33)

That's all for now, any thoughts on the totals tonight guys? Let's get it!

*total for post*
Sides 0-1 -2
ML 0-1 -1
Props 2-0 +1.725
Parlays 0-2 -.83

[Loaded Shooter]

Good Luck

[daft_picks]

Thanks loaded, same to you on whatever you play!

Adding 1.1 to win 1 unit Chi/Wash UNDER 40

See hard fought defensive battle in this game, more FG's than TD's, just hope Hester doesn't score more than once returning. Good luck to all tonight!

[daft_picks]

Wrong on Thursday, let's hope I get a few of these right on Sunday:

Minnesota -8.5 over SF 1.65 to win 1.5 (WIN +1.5)
Minn/SF OVER 39.5 1.65 to win 1.5 (LOSS -1.65)
Seattle - 7 over Arizona 1.65 to win 1.5 (WIN +1.5)
GB/Oakland OVER 40 1.65 to win 1.5 (WIN +1.5)
Miami/Buffalo OVER 35 1.575 to win 1.5 (-105) (WIN +1.5)
NE/Pitt OVER 47.5 1.65 to win 1.5 (LOSS -1.65) 1 point ouch
Jags -10.5 over Panthers 1.1 to win 1 (WIN +1)
Jax/Car OVER 38.5 1.1 to win 1 (WIN +1)
Philly -3 over NYG 1 to win 1.1 (+110) (LOSS -1)
Rams/Bengals UNDER 45.4 1.1 to win 1 (WIN +1)

Titans ML over SD 1.65 to win 1.5 units (-110) (LOSS -1.65)
Texans ML over Tampa 1 to win 1.35 units (+135) (WIN +1.35)
Pitt ML over NE .35 to win 1.5 units (+425) (LOSS -.35)

Titans ML over Chargers (-110)
Titans/Chargers over 39.5 (-110)
.75 to win 1.95 units (LOSS -.75)

5 team 6.5 teaser
Minnesota Vikings/San Francisco 49ers - total Over 33 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks - spread -½ (-110)
Indianapolis Colts - spread -2½ (-110)
Minnesota Vikings - spread -2 (-110)
Carolina Panthers/Jacksonville Jaguars - total Over 32 (-110)
1.5 to win 6 units (WIN +6 units)

4 team 7 point teaser
Cincinnati Bengals - spread -1 (-110)
Houston Texans - spread +10 (-110)
Oakland Raiders/Green Bay Packers - total Over 33 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons - spread +10½ (-110)
.75 to win 1.5 units (Pending Atl +10.5)


Probably way to many plays but what the hell. Good luck everyone

total on post:
Sides: 3-1 +3
Totals: 4-2 +1.7
Parlays: 0-1 -.75
Teasers: 1-0 +6 (1 pending)
ML: 1-2 -.65

[daft_picks]

Couple of halftime picks for early games, please fade away...

Eagles -2 2nd half .5 to win .525 (+105) (loss -.5)
Car/Jax UNDER 19 2nd half .55 to win .5 (loss -.55)
Titans ML .525 to win .5 (-105) (Loss -.525)
Titans/Chargers UNDER 17.5 .575 to win .5 (-115) (loss -.575)
(told you guys to fade)

Also added for 4pm games:
Jets ML over Cleveland 1 to win 1.5 units (+150) (Loss -1)
added 1.1 to win 1 unit on Seattle over Arizona (Win +1)

Teaser 6.5 points
Jets +10 over Browns
Jets/Brownies UNDER 54
1.8 to win 1.5 units (Win +1.5)

Let's DO IT!

*Total for post*
Sides: 0-0 (already won above) +1
Halfs 0-4 -2.15
ML 0-1 -1
Teaser +1.5

[daft_picks]

Titans game hurt a lot...we just gave it up in the 4th quarter. Looking solid for the day so far except for that and halftime plays, of which I went 0-4 of course (I hope somebody faded me!) I should just quit on those...

GO JETS!! Can't have the browns win this one!! Also go steelers, didn't play the side but am on the over, been doing good on totals today!

Stay cool ya'll

EDIT:
Adding more halftime plays (stupid)
Jets/Browns UNDER 22.5 2nd half .5 to win .5 (EVEN) don't know why this was at even money but have to play it (LOSS -.5)
Vikings team OVER 9 2nd half .575 to win .5 (-115) (LOSS -.575)
Arz/Sea UNDER 20.5 .6 to win .5 (-120) (LOSS -.6)

Total for post: halves 0-3 -1.675

[daft_picks]

Wow I can't believe how bad I am at halftime spreads, I really hope somebody faded me you would have gone 7-0 today on them

Will add everything up later, got one big teaser that's looking good just need Indy by 2.5, so gonna hedge that a bit on what may be a close game (but probably not).

Baltimore +9 1.65 to win 1.5 (Loss -1.65)

Baltimore first score of the game will be Field Goal or Safety (+135) .5 to win .6525 (Loss -.5)
Team to record the first 6 1st downs in game Indianapolis Colts (-150) .75 to win .5 (Win +.5)
Manning vs Balt Qbs - most gross passing yards Peyton Manning -48½ passing yrds (-130) .65 to win .5 (Win +.5)

Neutral on total now, might be back for a halftime fade for you guys!

Good luck

*total for post*

Sides 0-1 -1.65
Props 2-1 +.5

[daft_picks]

Wanted to total everything up for the week (thursday and sunday):

Sides: 3-3 +.35 units
Totals: 4-2-1 +1.7 units
ML: 1-4 -2.65 units
Halves: 0-7 -3.825 units me in the
Teasers: 2-0 (1 pending) +7.5 units gotta get lucky sometime
Parlays: 0-3 -1.58 units
Props: 4-1 +2.225 units

Total for week 14: +3.72 units

Things I learned this week:

• I suck at halftime bets. I'm really not sure what it is, but at this point I can conclude they are nothing but a waste of units for me.
• I like prop bets and am starting to feel more confident about them. I'm going to start playing full units on prop bets and zero units on halftime plays. There's just such a wide selection and if you look through them I think they become even better plays than sides/totals odds-wise.
• Don't be a homer, I made a 1 unit play on SD earlier this week (didn't post it) but essentially bought it back because I was convinced the Titans would win. I'd much rather lose a stupid unit AND have my team win than possibly lose money AND have my team lose. Hard to kick though because I already I like the Titans -4 this week vs. KC...
• I'll never quit playing teasers and parlays, but starting now I am going to make sure I'm betting what I really want to bet. I got lucky this week with those 2 teasers, but the 6 unit one I actually put a good deal of though into before I laid those precious units down. More thought = more chance for a win.
• Keep having fun, in the end I'm not playing for serious money here and just trying to have a good time.
• Try and learn things every week, because I'm a noob in all of this and have a long way to go in order to be a successful capper.

This is all mostly for me but hey maybe some of it will apply to some of you out there. Let's get the books on MNF