Cavorca NFL 14

[cavorca12]

NFL Week 14:


New York Jets +3.5 (-120) ..... 0.5 Unit

New York Jets ML +150 ..... 0.75 Unit

Pittsburgh +13 (-120) ..... 1 Unit

Houston +3 (-115) ..... 1 Unit

Tennessee +1 ..... 1.5 Units total -- (1 unit at -110 and 0.5 unit at Even)

San Francisco +8.5 (-105) ..... 1 Unit

San Francisco ML +315 ..... 0.5 Unit

Tennessee 2H 0 ..... 1 Unit


Baltimore at Indianapolis Under 42.5 ..... 1 Unit

Carolina at Jacksonville Over 38.5 ..... 0.75 Unit

San Diego at Tennessee Over 40 ..... 0.75 Unit

Minnesota at San Francisco Under 39 ..... 0.75 Unit



Still considering Mia, Car, and a total or two. Starting to think SF side, ML, and under are worth watching too.
I've had a rough past few weeks, but there is still some time left to hopefully par down the losses a bit. For MNF, hoping to get NO -3 and leaning NO/Atl Over.


BOL everyone!

[Daws1089]

you can count the +13, jml is doing it.

[cavorca12]

Daws, that's exactly what scared me, haha. Wasn't sure how well it would go over after seeing JML's post, but I'm sure a lot of that was between friends giving him crap for the fun of it. I'll put it up along with my Houston play, but the O/U is set at 3 hours for the amount of time until homedawg or someone else questions it...

[Daws1089]

most of us here know the line was 13 at some pt. they would get on your case if you posted like +15 or something since it was never that high. but we take your word for it if you got it earlier in the week.

[cavorca12]

Yea, I saw homedawg's line movement timeline a couple days ago. Not a huge window at +13 before it dropped to +10.5, so I didn't want to ruffle any feathers. Thanks for the help and GL this weekend!

[cavorca12]

Already in 1st post:

Pitt, Hou, Balt/Indy Under.


Adding to 1st post in thread:

Tennessee +1
TN D better all around, v pass just as much as run IMO, with Haynesworth, but were't spectacular last week vs Hou. If they slow LT, IMO Rivers isn't good enough to beat TN himself. TN at home. SD in 2nd of b2b aways after winning at KC last week. SD is 1-4 SU in 2nd of b2b aways since start of '05 season, including SU losses both times they were favored. Game comes down to running games and if SD creates turnovers on D. TN offense playing decent enough for me to back them, but this really hinges on the TN D showing improvement vs the run in Haynesworth's 2nd week back. SD on b2b aways, TN at home needing win for wild-card race, and Fisher > Turner, are enough for me to go with TN.

[cavorca12]

Adding:

New York Jets ML +150 ..... 0.75 Unit

Cle is not in a great situation IMO, coming off a SU loss and playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Bad defensive teams aren't greatest road favs. Cle has been the fav in 3 road games this season: STL (still winless, had some players back but fighting injuries), Balt (it took OT and banked FG, Balt defense avg w/o CB Rolle), and AZ (SU loss, 4 TO's). Their other road games were SU losses at Oak, NE, and Pitt. Pitt game not as close as score IMO. For the NYJ, they've been better L4 IMO. Pass defense improved a bit, decent games vs Dallas and Pitt. Run defense so-so recently but shown it can hold. NYJ good rushing the ball: 100+ yds and 4.0 ypc their L5 home games and 100+ and 4.0 in 4 of L5 overall (besides Dal game). NYJ should be able to run vs spotty Cle defense, and they even threw it ok vs spotty Mia defense last week. Weather outlook in NY is mid-30's and 50% chance of showers, IMO slightly favors NYJ style. Cle has become fairly heavy public team, which likely adds some value to NYJ and makes them worth a shot as home dog IMO. Might add more depending on if line moves.

[cavorca12]

Adding:

Carolina at Jacksonville Over 38.5

San Diego at Tennessee Over 40


Both for 0.75 unit.


Viewed both as a bit low. Like SD/TN over regardless of which side wins, but especially as a hedge on TN.

[cavorca12]

More additions:

San Francisco +8.5 (-105) ..... 0.5 Unit

Tennessee +1 (Even) ... 0.5 to make a total of 1.5 Units


Kind of short on time, but IMO Minn not in great situation. SF run D not too bad, and D has held teams down pretty well at home this season. Minn 3-0 SU and ATS L3 to just get to .500, now travel accross country back in time zones and are big road fav. Minn hasn't been great recently on road vs NFC West. SF worth half unit play off of a bad situation IMO for Minn that has some makings of a letdown. Still waiting on this total to maybe play the under, but not looking like it's moving up a ton...

[cavorca12]

Adding:

Tennessee 2H 0 ..... 1 Unit

[cavorca12]

Adding:

San Francisco +8.5 ... 0.5 Unit for 1 Unit total

San Francisco ML +315 ..... 0.5 Unit

New York Jets +3.5 (-120) ..... 0.5 Unit


Still waiting to see if I can get a higher total on the Minn/SF total, but most likely taking the under. Just not sold on a young Minn team in what is IMO a bad situation, but it wouldn't surprise me if I'm completely wrong and they win huge in a blowout and score a ton of points given how I've been running.

[cavorca12]

Adding:

Minnesota at San Francisco Under 39 ..... 0.75 Unit