Mnf 12/10

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd ats 71-75 (-21.20 units)
dog ml's 16-31 (-6.56 units)
teasers 0-3 (-9.20 units)
parlays 1-1 (+2.00 units)
total 88-110 (-34.96 units)

Atlanta Falcons +5 (+100)

3 units

I know this goes against my own "system" of taking the dog on the ML at spreads of under 7, but I'm passing on the ML play tonight cause I think this line is inflated. I see a chance of a Saints SU win/non cover here, as I believe the game will be close, and I don't wanna risk being burned by a late Saints drive for the win on the ML play. The payout wouldn't be much different if I do it my usual way (2 units ATS at +5 +100 and 1 unit ML at +180) and Atlanta wins outright (+3.80 units instead of +3.00 units), and the loss is exactly the same (-3.00 units) if they lose/don't cover anyway....but if Atlanta covers, but loses, the profit is only +1 unit instead of +3 units doing it this way.

In other words, I'm having a hard time justifying taking the ML play for 1 unit considering the little bit extra it will make for me as compared to the 2 unit potential loss if ATL covers but loses, instead of just playing that unit on the +5 (+100) spread.

[homedawg]

GL Stif BTW, this weeks su winna's are 14-1 ats

[Daws1089]

and all but like 3 are favs

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

and all but like 3 are favs

[Underdog88]

Damn Stif, I hope you're wrong.... about the Falcons losing but covering the spread

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, luckily I layed alot of chalk this week so i came out ok for a change....but yea, could a dog please stand up somewhere along the line here?

What dogs even covered this week? NYG, HOU and DET? Those are only 3 I count...

Udog - I could just see this game coming down to the wire, either tied or with ATL slightly ahead, and then their defense folding like a tent and allowing the Aints to go down and get the go ahead score at the end.....or the Aints slightly ahead and ATL failing to get the winning score on the last drive, which is why I just kept with taking the points.