Daft picks week XV

[daft_picks]

Still like Houston tonight even with all this crazy line movement, decided to add another unit on the ML since it's gone up and I'm an addict

Texans ML over Broncos 2 to win 2.2 units (1 unit +100, 1 unit +120) (WIN +2.2)

1 itty bitty prop:
1rst player to score TD in game, Brandon Stokely +1000 .25 to win 2.5 units (LOSS -.25)

Good luck to all tonight should be a good game!

Over time adding other week 15 plays to this post:

Seattle -7 over Carolina 4.5 to win 4 units (2 @ -110, 2 @ -115) (LOSS -4.5)
Sea/Ari OVER 37 1.65 to win 1.5 units (LOSS -1.65)

This is one of the bigger plays I've made this season, feel pretty confident about it. Seattle with a lot to play for (going to playoffs, seeding, momentum, etc) and Carolina with very little. Seems like bad things are happening for the Panthers, homefield likely won't be a factor. If anyone out there feels this is a play they want to make I suggest, as many have already, to get it now before the line climbs. A TD spread is a steal here in my opinion. I could be wrong though, but either way things go I also like a good number of points to be scored by Seattle, it all just depends on how much Carolina decides to show up on offense. Taking the over as well.

Also playing first quarter spread -.5 1.2 units to win 1 (-120) (LOSS -1.2)

SD/Detroit OVER 45.5 2.2 to win 2 units (WIN +2)

This total just seems to low to me for two teams with potent offenses and middle-of-the-road defenses. Game is in San Diego so weather should be nice, feel Detroit might keep it close to so +10 on them could be good but I like the total even more.

Cincinnati -8 over 49ers 1.1 to win 1 unit (LOSS -1.1)
Cincinnati Bengals - team total Over 13 First Half (-115) 1.15 to win 1 units (LOSS -1.15)

I think Cincinnati's offense will do fine against SF, easily good for a couple of TD's in the first half and probably 10 points more than the 49ers muster up on the offensive. Mostly playing against weak San Fran and the fact that Cinci has strong offensive capabilities.

NY jets +24 over Pats 1.8 to win 1.5 unit (-120) (WIN +1.5)

Sorry I didn't post this earlier, as I see the line has dropped considerably now due to the weather I guess. I still like it at 21 even, I don't see this game being as huge a pats blowout as the others, they want the win but I doubt they'll be going all out through the whole game to avoid the possible backdoor cover by an improving (slightly) jets offense. Total's dropping like crazy too, see it's at 41 now, might make a small play on that too.

Titans -3.5 over Chiefs 2.2 to win 2 units (WIN +2)

I'm a homer for here, liked this play from the start when posted at -4. Line has dropped half a point but after seeing a few others on it I feel confident that it is actually a good play. Titans in a must win situation against the reeling Chiefs, think they get it done here, going by the pick a winner theory when spread 7 or less.

Saints -3.5 over Cardinals 2.2 to win 2 units (WIN +2)

Picking the winner in this one, not going to over think it.

Tampa +13 over Atlanta 1.5 to win 1.5 units (EVEN) (WIN +1.5)

Laying the wood on a reeling Falcons team.

Teasers/Parlays:

6.5 point teaser
Detroit Lions - spread +16½ (-110)
Detroit Lions/San Diego Chargers - total Over 39 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks - spread -½ (-110)
Washington Redskins/New York Giants - total Over 30 (-110)
1.5 to win 3.75 units (LOSS -1.5)

7 point teaser
Green Bay Packers - spread -1 (-110)
New York Jets - spread +28 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts - spread -3½ (-110)
Dallas Cowboys - spread -3 (-110)
Football - Tennessee Titans - spread +3½ (-110)
1.5 to win 5.25 units (LOSS -1.5)

2 team parlay
Bengals -8 UNDER 42.5
.5 to win 1.3 units (LOSS -.5)

6 team Parlay
Dallas Cowboys - moneyline (-550)
Indianapolis Colts - moneyline (-580)
Tennessee Titans - spread -3 (-135)
New York Jets - spread +21 (-115)
Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys - total Under 48½ (-110)
Arizona Cardinals/New Orleans Saints - total Under 49 (-110)
.5 to win 7.75 units (LOSS -.5)

6 Team Parlay
Jacksonville Jaguars - moneyline (+170)
Seattle Seahawks - moneyline (-320)
Indianapolis Colts - moneyline (-600)
Houston Texans - moneyline (+100)
Green Bay Packers - moneyline (-440)
New York Giants - moneyline (-200)
.54 to win 7.5 units (LOSS -.5) ******* seahags, knew I had the read on Jax, stupid of me not to make a solo play on them...

To me this parlay is essentially an inflated play on Jacksonville. I think they are hungry and have a real shot at a somewhat overrated and inconsistent Steelers team. Think most else is strong, will hedge if it comes down to the Giants though for sure.

Good luck to all this weekend.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL Daft Punk!

[Biff_Tannen]

I think Stokely is inactive man. I hope you get that bet back.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah....Stokely is out....

[daft_picks]

Yeah that was stupid to bet on that should have researched oh well at least Houston's looking good! Standing up to Denver real nice!

[daft_picks]

+1.95 units on the night, YTD all updated, hoping for a solid week 15 to eek me back into the black! Congrats to all on Houston!

And I'll say it again, the AFC South is the toughest division in the NFL. When the lowest ranked team in your division is at .500 it's hard to argue against that. Does anyone know if that has happened before come the end of the season? Seems probable but unlikely.

[MacDaddy]

Good Luck this weekend starting with the Bengals tommorrow night.

[daft_picks]

Thanks MacDaddy, I'm thinking the Benglas get it done tonight. Always a little scary putting money on them though

[daft_picks]

Well Seattle killed me, fell victim to putting a lot of my eggs in their basket

One teaser for the night game, gonna see how everything else rides out.

6.5 teaser
Wash +13/UNDER 41.5
1.8 to win 1.5 units (WIN +1.5 units)

See close hard fought game in the snow.

Damn I wish I had laid solo on the Jax ML. The woulda shoulda coulda of sports gamblings.

Good luck all

ADDING
Raiders ML 2nd half over Colts +200 .75 to win 1.5 units (LOSS -.75)
Eagles +7 2nd half over Dallas .825 to win .75 units (WIN +.75)
(hedging teaser)

Giants/Redskins OVER 35 1.1 to win 1 unit (LOSS -1.1)

[daft_picks]

For the week:

Sides: 4-2 +1.4 units
Totals: 1-2 -.75 units
ML: 1-0 +2.2 units
Teasers: 1-2 -1.5 units
Parlays: 0-3 -1.5 units
Halfs/Quarters: 1-3 -2.35
Props: -.25

Total -2.85

Shouldn't have put so much on the seahags, nuf said. Hoping to bounce back tonight for a positive week.

Chicago +10.5 over Minn. 2.2 to win 2 units (WIN +2)
Chicago/Minn UNDER 43 2.2 to win 2 units (WIN +2)

Chicago +3.5 (+220) .6 to win 1.25 units (LOSS -.6)

PROP:
Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams TD scored YES (+160) .5 to win .8 units (LOSS -.5)
PARLAY:
Chicago +10.5 UNDER 43
.5 to win 1.3 units (WIN +1.3)


I hope I have the right read on this game, but methinks Minnesota due for a slight letdown, will get the win either way but bears should play hard defensive battle making it a low scoring game. Bears should keep it close, Minnesota looking ahead and won't really be concerned about pulling off the DD victory. Could happen though, but if it does I still think total stays under 43.

Good luck to all tonight!

[daft_picks]

Boring MNF game, both teams look crappy especially on the offensive side. Best aspect has been the Bears D so far keeping Adrian in check. Hope it holds...

Small bull**** 2nd half plays so I have a little something to watch for...

Chi/Minn UNDER 21 2nd half .55 to win .5 units (WIN +.5)

PARLAY
Bears +7 (+130) UNDER 21 (-110) 2nd half
.25 to win .85 units (LOSS -.25)

GO BEARS!

[daft_picks]

Glad I had the right read on the MNF game, I think that put me in the black this week:

Sides: 5-2 +3.4 units
Totals: 2-2 +1.25 units
ML: 1-0 +2.2 units
Teasers: 1-2 -1.5 units
Parlays: 1-3 -0.2 units
Halfs/Quarters: 2-4 -2.10 units
Props: 0-3 -1.35 units

Total for the week: +1.6 units

I'll take it! Let's get em this week!