JML Week 17 >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

NFL YTD: 81-48, +95.09 Units


Backing 2 teams with something to play for, who both have good running games facing teams with bad run defences (SD & Min). Backing one team with something to play for facing an injured team with no talent left who have given up (Pitt). And facing one team as a fade of Cincy laying a road FG (Mia).

Most of my thoughts in the Discussion thread.


Pats/Giants UNDER 47 -110 - 2 Units
Tailing homedawg...

2-Team TEASER
Patriots -6.5
Chargers -1.5 - 4 Units

Bills/Eagles OVER 38 - 2 Units

Dolphins +3 -120 vs Bengals - 4 Units
See my thoughts in discussion thread. Also like HD's take on this one...

Steelers -3 -112 vs Ravens - 5 Units
Doesn't get much bleaker than in Baltimore, with so many injuries, a 9 game losing streak, a 3rd string QB, and facing a good Steeler team looking to avoid a bad playoff matchup against Jax. Not crazy about Pitt's road record, but it doesn't get much easier than this.

Vikings -3 -116 vs Broncos - 5 Units
Bounce-back for the Vikings with a running game that should put up 200 yards on Denver...as long as Jackson doesn't turn over the ball, this win is theirs. Best rushing team against the 3rd worst rush defence.

Chargers -7 -130 vs Raiders - 5 Units
The Jags and their good running game ran all over the Raiders and their 2nd worst rush defence, Resulting in a blowout. The surging Chargers should do the same, with their own strong run game, and they are also looking for that coveted 3rd seed in the AFC. Bought a full point from Bowmans to get it to a TD...but this should be a 20+ point win.

2-Team TEASER
Chargers -2
Cowboys +15.5 - 3 Units


GL All

[wsox08]

GL JML, I'll probably be on the bottom 3 of those.

[wsox08]

FYI: Roethlisberger might not play vs. the Ravens.. not sure if that would affect your decision.

[fitter]

Liking those 3, but not sure on Miami just yet. Stillers will start Batch, but I think they cover anyway. Happy New Year to you and yours.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks guys...yeah, I read that Ben was questionable when I put the bet in, and I see it's now doubtful....still think the Ravens are too injured, and discouraged, and I still prefer a veteran like Batch over the young Troy Smith and that horrible offence around him.

GL

[knives of ice]

Ben and Troy are out for pittsburgh....but even with them being out their backups are better than the baltimore players right now.

thanks for the great picks this year JML, long time lurker wish i would have jumped on your wagon earlier this year.

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Dolphins +3 vs Bengals
Haven't put this in yet...hoping for some reduced juice by gametime with 70% on the Bungals.

ya lost the line, already down to 1 @ pinny...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by homedawg

ya lost the line, already down to 1 @ pinny...

Nah...I was going to buy it at -118 at Pinny when posted my plays, and I can get it at -120 right now....so it's not really missed....it's posted as a main posted line at +1 at Pinny, but it's at +115. Doesn't really mean much as you can by points. The +3 is still available at the same juice (-120/-125) at all of my 3 books, as it has been the past few days. Pinny does that all the time....moves the line a couple points, but adjusts the juice as well to a big plus line.

You're right though, it does look to be moving slightly against Miami at some books tonight, thanks for the heads up...I've been checking regularily.
Might lock it in soon, as it looks like sharp money on Miami.
Is that why you played it early, HD?

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Is that why you played it early, HD?

Biggest reason: tuna showin' up early for work, and the players practiced like the game meant something... I know it does... I'm also on the fins ml, just tryin' to give a heads up...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by homedawg

just tryin' to give a heads up...

Yup...appreciate it...

Probably putting it through tonight....


GL

[homedawg]

Parcells needed only one practice to make an impact in Miami, linebacker Joey Porter said.

"Guys were nervous out there," Porter said. "They got to running around a little faster. The coaches got to coaching a little louder. You definitely knew he was out there. ...

"He's known for building programs to win, and we're just all waiting to see. This year is over. We've got one game to finish out, and then we'll wait for him to do his magic."

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Put the play through....

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Pinny does that all the time....moves the line a couple points, but adjusts the juice as well to a big plus line.

they do that for jp attraction, when they have a strong feel for the game.... just like cle last week... there is no other reason to lower a 3 with 70%+ on the top end of the 3... mo' money,

[homedawg]

Don't forget, the linesmakers set the line to get even action, but books can hold the line, on uneven action, then there's them damn sharps that make them lower the line, or the books could be really confident on a side and get greedy....

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Put the play through....

GL thats the only 1 I can agree with you on...

ya need to think differently on weeks 16 & 17..