NFL Week 20 Thread

[Billy Barooooooo]

17 up, 17 down. That’s been the story of the 2007-08 New England Patriots, who have just two roadblocks remaining in their quest for perfection. The first is the San Diego Chargers, who surprised everyone last Sunday when they went into Indianapolis and upset the Colts. Surprisingly, the Lightning Bolts have drawn the early action for Sunday’s AFC Title Game and have been bet down to a two touchdown underdog.

Part of the reason for that has to be New England’s recent struggles against the pointspread. After an incredible 8-0 ATS start to the season; the Pats have covered just two of nine, including four consecutive pointspread losses. In last week’s 31-20 win over Jacksonville, they were never covering the 13-point number.

However, in the face of astronomical pointspreads, New England is still laying claim to being the best team ever. The offense, led by MVP Tom Brady, scored an NFL record 589 points during the regular season, good enough for a 36.8 PPG average. They outscored opponents by nearly 20 points/game. Brady, who threw an NFL single-season record 50 TD passes, is a perfect 7-0 lifetime in home playoff games. WR Randy Moss set a personal mark of his own, hauling in 23 TD passes, including one in 13 of 16 games. Under Bill Belichick, New England is 12-2 SU and 8-5 ATS in the playoffs.

Despite the Jaguars limiting Moss to just a single catch last Saturday, Brady was still phenomenal. He completed a NFL record 92.9% of his passes (26 of 28) for 262 yards and three touchdowns. It was Brady’s 13th consecutive playoff game with at least one TD pass, the second longest such streak in NFL history (Brett Favre – 17).

New England has played San Diego twice in the last calendar year and won both times. Back in Week 2, just a week removed from the Spygate scandal, they crushed the Chargers, 38-14, as 3.5-point chalk.

The Pats came out in a high-tempo, single-back set that spread out Tom Brady's receiving options. This put pressure on the Chargers' secondary, the weakness of their defense, and pulled their pass rushing outside linebackers farther away from the ball, making it easier for the Pats to recognize blitzes. Brady sat back and chose the matchup he liked best without a great deal of opposition.

The teams’ previous meeting before that, of course, occurred in last year’s Divisional Playoffs where New England went into San Diego as an underdog and prevailed 24-21, which cost former Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer his job.

After a rocky start that had many questioning Schottenheimer’s dismissal, Norv Turner has led San Diego to eight straight wins and covers, matching what the Patriots did during the first half of the regular season. San Diego now actually boasts a better pointspread mark (13-5 ATS) than New England (10-7 ATS).

After getting injured on Sunday against the Colts, both RB LaDanian Tomlinson and QB Phillip Rivers are expected to play. The status of TE Antonio Gates remains uncertain.

San Diego is 7-1 Over in road games this season.

[Billy Barooooooo]

After losing to the Cowboys on November 29th in a game that was thought to decide homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, it turns out that Green Bay will get to host the NFC Championship Game after all. Theyʼll do so against the leagueʼs best road team, the NY Giants, who come in riding a nine-game winning streak away from home. The Packers are a touchdown favorite.

However, Green Bay backers better beware. Non-#1 seeds that have hosted Conference Championship Games are just 2-5 against the spread all-time. Indianapolis did cover in this same spot last year, however, coming from behind to beat the Patriots 38-34, as a three-point favorite. This situation has yet to present itself in the NFC where, prior to Dallasʼs loss, the top-seed had never lost in its first playoff game since the postseason format was realigned in 1990.

Of course, it is because of the Giants that the Packers get to play host. It is also now Eli, not Peyton, Manning who will surprisingly represent the family in the NFLʼs version of the Final Four.

New Yorkʼs nine consecutive road victories is an NFL record. The 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers are the only team in league history to win three road games en route to a Super Bowl appearance.

The Giants also will be looking to avenge another regular-season defeat. The Packers routed the Giants, 35-13, in Week Two at Giants Stadium, with Brett Favre completing 28-of-39 passes for 286 yards and three touchdowns.

Green Bay has multiple reasons to thank the G-Men. Not only did their upset of Dallas give the Packers homefield advantage, but RB Ryan Grant was cut by New York prior to the season. Grant, more so even than Brett Favre, has been the catalyst for Green Bayʼs tremendous run. He was second in the league in rushing during the second half of the season and ran for a team playoff record 201 yards last Saturday against Seattle.

While New York boasts the leagueʼs best road record, Green Bay boasts the leagueʼs best pointspread mark at 13-3-1 ATS. That includes a 7-1-1 record here in Lambeau.

The Giants have gone 7-1 Under on the road vs. conference opponents this season and are 12-3 Under when revenging a SU loss as a home favorite.

[Billy Barooooooo]

BETTING TRENDS
SAN DIEGO
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of San Diego's last 15 games on the road
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New England
San Diego is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing New England
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
NEW ENGLAND
New England is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games
New England is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of New England's last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Diego
New England is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing San Diego
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego

[Billy Barooooooo]

BETTING TRENDS
NEW YORK
NY Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
NY Giants are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games
NY Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Giants last 9 games on the road
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Green Bay
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Green Bay
GREEN BAY
Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants

[Billy Barooooooo]

Let’s delve now into the National Football League to give you some insight into the Conference Championship Games. First off, here’s the results of the AFC and the NFC Championship Games the past five years and note all home teams below are in CAPS:
2006
NFC: CHICAGO (- 3) 39, New Orleans 14
AFC: INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) 38, New England 34
2005
AFC: DENVER (- 3) 17, Pittsburgh 34
NFC: SEATTLE (-3.5) 34, Carolina 14
2004
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 5.5) 27, Atlanta 10
AFC: PITTSBURGH 27, New England (-3) 41
2003
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 4) 3, Carolina 14
AFC: NEW ENGLAND (- 3) 24, Indianapolis 14
2002
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 4) 10, Tampa Bay 27-10
AFC: OAKLAND (- 8) 41, Tennessee 24
As you can see, NFC home favorites have covered each of the last three years – Chicago, Seattle and Philadelphia all won rather lopsided games by 25, 20 and 17 points, respectively – but in all NFC home teams are 3-2 ATS in the last five Championship Games with the Eagles stubbing their toe in 2003 and 2002 against Carolina and Tampa Bay, respectively.
In the AFC, go back these past five seasons and you see that it’s a real mixed bag with home favorites Indianapolis (2006), New England (2003) and Oakland (2002) each getting the win/cover while the road-favored NE Patriots snagged the pointspread “W” at Pittsburgh back in ’04. The only upset in this conference championship round in the AFC the past five years was Pittsburgh’s triumph in Denver two years ago when the Steelers won three consecutive AFC Playoff games en route to their Super Bowl win against Seattle.
Add ‘em all up dating back five years and here’s the breakdown:
Betting Favorites are 7-3 ATS in this round for a sparkling .700 winning rate while home teams are 6-4 versus the vig overall.
It’s worth noting that seven of the last eight NFL Conference Championship Games have sported pointspreads of four points or less and there’s not been a single case in these last 10 games in which an underdog side covered the game but didn’t win outright – in short, the Las Vegas lines “have not mattered” in this regard as either the favorites have won by a large enough margin or the dogs – the 2005 Steelers, the 2003 Panthers and the 2002 Buccaneers – have won the “whole game”.
As a matter of fact, if you’d like to find the last time that both underdogs got the cash on NFL Championship Game Sunday, then just go back one more year – to the 2001 season – and you’ll see that in the AFC Championship Game it was New England who stunned 10-point home favorite Pittsburgh 24-17 while in the NFC Championship Game the visiting Philadelphia Eagles (+ 10 ½ points) slipped under the Las Vegas price tag en route to a 29-24 straight-up loss in St. Louis.
P.S., both dogs won outright in the 2000 season – in the AFC Baltimore bested six-point home favorite Oakland 16-3 while in the NFC title game it was the 2 ½-point home underdog New York Giants blasting the Minnesota Vikings 41-0.
So, the dogs have had “their day” in this NFL Championship Game Sunday but they just haven’t had it together in a few years now.

[yomonte]

Originally Posted by Billy Barooooooo

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

You ain't a just whistlin' dixie

[homedawg]

[Billy Barooooooo]

WTF I had a whole write up done and my modem goes dead! I unplugg it and its dead! I hit some buttons and it comes back on! Maybe thats a sign to unload on my play!!!!

[Billy Barooooooo]

Here are some general facts and pointspread trends regarding action in the Championship Playoff round from recent years. Take the time to read each and everyone to give you an edge for the both the side and total of each contest this Sunday.
* The Championship Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the highest scoring games in recent years are the last 12 conference title contests have seen an average of 48.3 points per game scored. In that span, the OVER is on a strong run of 9-2-1, for 81.8%.
* The home team is only 17-11 SU in this round since 1994, and 14-13-1 ATS.
* Since ’94, only four NFC road teams have won straight up in the championship round against 10 losses, while in the AFC, the home and road teams have split 14 games. Furthermore, the AFC road team owns a 7-6-1 ATS edge.
* The #1 seed in the NFC had been the home team in EVERY conference title game since ’93, compiling a record of 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS until Dallas faltered this year. By comparison, the #1 seed in the AFC is only 4-4 SU & ATS in that span.
* Favorites of more than a touchdown are 8-3 SU but just 5-6 ATS (45.4 percent) in the Championship Round since 1993.
* Home Favorites of less than 9.5 or dogs with two or more regular season wins than their opponent are 14-2 ATS in the championship round.
* There has been some success following total movements in the Conference Championship Round. When the closing total finishes lower than the opening total, or in other words the public is backing the UNDER, the OVER is a stellar 12-5 for 70.6 percent!
* Of the 14 home pointspread covers in the championship round, the OVER is 9-4-1 (69.1 percent). On the other hand, when the road team has won ATS, the OVER is just 8-7 (53.3 percent).
* General rule of thinking…if it looks like it’s going to be a high scoring game, it will be. In the last eight conference title games with totals of 45 or more, the OVER is 7-1.

Updated NFL Playoff Statistical Angles
Here’s another update to the records of the top NFL Playoff Statistical Angles we uncovered here at StatFox prior to the Wildcard Round. Remember, although team statistics are just one piece of a large puzzle a handicapper needs to put together to enjoy success in the NFL Playoffs, they are an important piece, as they can often signify tendencies and overall strength of the various teams. Here is a list of the categories that we analyzed:
- Won-Lost Records
- Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game
- Scoring Differential
- Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
- Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Attempt
- Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Game
- Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Attempt
- Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Play
- Turnover Differential
Of the categories listed. Here is a summary of those that produced the most definitive results, those that won at better than a 55 percent rate ATS. Along with each angle, I’ve updated the records to include this past weekend’s games and also listed the teams qualifying for that angle in this weekend’s divisional playoffs.
Won-Lost Records:
- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) are 27-17 ATS (61.3 percent) in the playoffs since 1993. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 1-1
** Qualifying Plays for‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay, New England
- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) and favored in the range of 7-9.5 points are 12-5 ATS (70.5 percent) since ’93. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 1-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay
- Over the last eight playoff seasons, home teams with a winning percentage edge of .165 or more (16.5%) over their road opponent are 12-1 SU & 9-4 ATS (69.2 percent). Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 1-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: New England
Scoring Statistics
Offensive Points Per Game
• Teams with offensive points per game edge going into a playoff game are 83-68 ATS, or 55.0 percent since ‘93. However, since 2000, that record is just 44-42 ATS for 51.2%. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 4-4
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay, New England
Rushing Statistics
Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
• Teams with rushing yards per game edge on defense going into a playoff game are 82-69 ATS, or 54.3% since ’93, showing that the ability to stop the run outweighs offensive rushing attacks. Since 2000, that record is 48-39 ATS for 55.2 percent, showing the importance of a stout rush defense has increased in recent years. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 3-5
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay, New England
Defensive Yards Per Rush
• Teams with a Yards Per Rush edge on defense going into a playoff game are 78-60 ATS, or 56.5% since ’93, again showing that the ability to stop the run outweighs any offensive rushing numbers. Since 2000, that record is 47-37 ATS for 56.0 percent, showing that defensive YPR has indeed proven a consistent stat to keep an eye on in recent postseasons. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 3-5
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay, San Diego
Passing Statistics
Offensive Passing Yards Per Game
• Teams with passing yards per game edge on offense going into a playoff game are 83-68 ATS, or 55.0% since ’93. Since 2000, that record improves to 49-37 ATS for 57.0 percent, showing that passing is clearly becoming a more important ingredient to playoff success. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 3-5
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay, New England
Offensive Yards Per Pass
• Teams with yards per pass edge on offense going into a playoff game are 78-65 ATS, or 54.5% since ’93. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 3-5
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay, New England
Yards Per Play Statistics
Offensive Yards Per Play
• Teams with yards per play edge on offense going into a playoff game are 84-66 ATS, or 56.0% since ’93, adding another fairly successful stat category to our postseason handicapping arsenal. Since 2000, that record drops slightly to 47-39 ATS for 54.7%, but still at a success rate that would net profitability each playoff year. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 3-5
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay, New England
Summary
The fact that four of our top six categories are offensive statistics dispels the notion that “defense wins championships”. Naturally, the next task is to combine the top categories to see if teams enjoying edges in more than one successful statistic enjoy further success. Incidentally, teams enjoying an edge in ALL SIX of these categories are 18-8 ATS since ’93 in the playoffs, including 14-3 ATS in the divisional round.
Here are five successful playoff stat combos that achieved better than 60% ATS success in our study:

* Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game are 44-30 ATS (59.4%) since ’93. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 1-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay, New England
* Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Yards Per Rush are 36-19 ATS (65.5%) since ’93. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 0-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay
* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Passing Yards Per Game are 35-21 ATS (62.5%) since ’93. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 0-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay
* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Pass Yards Per Attempt are 32-18 ATS (64.0%) since ’93. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 0-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay
* Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Yards Per Play are 32-15 ATS (68.1%) since ’93. Record for ‘08 Playoffs: 0-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Green Bay
Last week we provided systems which were relevant to the divisional round; here this week’s in regard to the Conference Championships.
* Play On a team in Conference title game that won, but failed to cover last week.
Record – 10-4-1 71.4 percent
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Play on New England
* Play Against any team that defeats the defending Super Bowl champs in the playoffs and next game is not the Super Bowl.
Record – 9-0 100 percent
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Play against San Diego
* Play Against any underdog in the Conference Finals, if they were an underdog in prior contest.
Record – 20-10 66.7 percent
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Championship Weekend: Play against San Diego and New York

Good luck

[Billy Barooooooo]

NFL Playoffs - Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

San Diego Charges vs New England Patriots

Our sportsbook contacts tell us that the majority of bets are coming in on San Diego. The line opened at New England –15.5 but the early heavy Public action on San Diego has caused a huge 2-point move through the key number of 14.
SportsInsights’ exclusive betting percentages show that the Public is on San Diego to the tune of almost 6 out of every 10 bets. San Diego has had a great run but is now banged up a bit. We see good value on New England –13.5 at home.

New England Patriots –13.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction -13.5)
Playoff Recap
New England Patriots –13.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction -13.5)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend.

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by Billy Barooooooo

NFL Playoffs - Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

San Diego Charges vs New England Patriots

Our sportsbook contacts tell us that the majority of bets are coming in on San Diego. The line opened at New England –15.5 but the early heavy Public action on San Diego has caused a huge 2-point move through the key number of 14.
SportsInsights’ exclusive betting percentages show that the Public is on San Diego to the tune of almost 6 out of every 10 bets. San Diego has had a great run but is now banged up a bit. We see good value on New England –13.5 at home.

New England Patriots –13.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction -13.5)
Playoff Recap
New England Patriots –13.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction -13.5)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend.

I'm a big believer in Sports Insights and often read this column, but I had to wonder what the hell he's thinking this week.

First of all, THEIR OWN NUMBERS show 54% on NEW ENGLAND as of right now.

Second, 60% is FAR from "heavy public action", especially early in the week before the true squares chime in. It's well known that the squarest players really chime in on game day, and if that's the case here, they have swung the public percentage on SDC from 60% to 46% with 77326 current bets on the game (again by their numbers). That's a HUGE late public opinion on NEP to be able to swing the percentage that far with that many bets on a game.

Third, the public does not move a number 2 points from +15.5 to +13.5 by betting 60% on the dog. I see games every day where there are 80% and even 90% on a certain side and the number doesn't move 2 full points. Granted, there aren't normally 77K+ bets on those games, but when basically every bet comes in on one side with only 10K to 20K bets on a game, that's alot more lopsided than 60%.

If there was any "sharp buyback" on this game, it was right at the opening bell on SDC +15.5.

The bottom line is that the public appears to be split on this game, and I think they were really reaching for a play here. In no way am i saying NEP can't or won't cover, but to think there's any "value" in betting on an 18-0 team, weather it be ATS or on the ML, is, IMO, far fetched.

Value is usually always found on good teams flying under the radar, teams who the public thinks has no chance, or on games where the line looks too easy. I don't think NE is flying unnoticed at this point, lol. I don't think this line looks too easy either way, and if the public thinks any team doesn't have a chance this week, it's SDC, not NEP.

I don't get it....and usually when this guy's plays make no sense, they lose.