Conf Championships....

[Stifler's Mom]

San Diego Chargers +14 (-105)

3 units

San Diego Chargers ML +600

1 unit

Remember when the Eagles "showed the blueprint" on how to hang with NEP? Well, there have been 6 Patriots games since then.

Baltimore. The Raisins had them beat. Plain and simple. And the Raisins suck. It took NE about 14 chances to get that go ahead TD, a drive in which they were aided by the zebras IMHO.

Pittsburgh. Got handled. Pittsburgh turned out to be a not so good team though down the stretch of the season. In any case, one point for NE (and their only ATS cover in their last 7 games I believe), unless Miami was getting less than +21, which I don't think they were.

NY Jets. A model of sucks. 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NFL. NE beat them 20-10 at home. Not impressive. Granted, you can't smash everyone, but, that's what you're asking if you're going to lay -14....so it's relevant here. The most important point to me here is that NYJ held NE to 20 pts, not that the completely futile NYJ offense only scored 10.

Miami. Sucks even worse. By far the worst team in the NFL. NE beat them 28-7. Buffalo beat MIA by the same margin, and put up 10 more points than NE did, just 2 weeks prior. BUF is far from an offensive machine, and didn't even make the playoffs. So, IMHO, NOT impressive. And yes, NE DID try in that game. Brady/Moss were clearly going for records, and there's no way they wanted to let ****ty Miami slip in the back door late and ruin their perfect season with a fluke play or two in the 4th qtr.

NYG. Another team who had NE beat. Eli threw a pick in a situation where NYG could have all but put the game away. The momentum swung as a result, and NE got the win. But, only by 3 pts. Not going to take anything away from NYG because they're playing good football right now, and again, NE did do what it took to win the game. But, they won by 3. This week they're -14....so the fact that they barely won that contest is certainly relevant.

JAX. NE won by 11, after having a week off while JAX had to battle the Steelers in the first round. Again, NEP did not cover the spread, and a costly Garrard INT helped put the game away in the 3rd qtr after it was tied up at the half.

Now they face SD, who is playing great football, and is probably the best team out of all those that I have mentioned. The oddsmakers are asking NE to cover 2 TD's +. That's asking alot for a team who has won by more than 14 only twice in their last 7 games, and with 1 of those wins being over the freakin 1-15 Miami Dolphins.

Furthermore, San Diego is playing with double revenge here, attempting to avenge a week 2 loss @ NE (a game in which SD was clearly not the same team they are today), AND last year's playoff loss in which the Patriots players danced on the Chargers symbol at midfield.

Also, oddly enough, the Chargers have some of the same mismatches that NEP does. They have 2 very tall wideouts than can go up and get the ball over shorter defensive backs, much like Randy Moss does for NE. They also have a better TE in Gates, even if he's only 75-80%, and Turner doesn't seem to be much of a downgrade at RB if LT is limited.

I also believe it is an advantage for SD in that NE doesn't exactly know which San Diego QB/RB combo to prepare for, and that winds are expected to be between 16 and 27 MPH today in NE. While that is not terrible, it may still put a bit of a damper on the deep passes, an area in which NE would clearly have the advantage.

I just believe NE will have a tough time blowing out SD, as they haven't demonstrated the ability to blow out a decent team in the entire 2nd half of the season....and honestly, not only have they not blown out good teams, they have had some close ones against some very bad teams (BAL, NYJ), and a very average team (PHI).

San Diego is playing great football, and I believe they keep this game close. An outright win wouldn't shock me, as SD is certainly able to close games given the chance, but, Im really only asking them to cover the 2 touchdowns. The outright win would just be a bonus.

[Stifler's Mom]

NY Giants +8 (+100)

3 units

NY Giants ML +270

1 unit

Will give some reasoning if i get a chance....kinda busy right now though

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

whoa....that surprises me....I thought you've been saying all week you like GB! Guess I'll wait for the reasoning....lol...


Enjoy the games!

[Stifler's Mom]

I did early in the week. I changed my mind....like a woman, lol.

Seriously though, I honestly think some of it was that I am rooting for Favre to go all the way one last time, and I was swayed by that....and their blowout of SEA.

After looking at the game a little more objectively though, I think the Giants can do alot of things to keep themselves in this game, unlike Seattle last week. Rushing the ball being at the top of the list.

I've been saying all year that Seattle stank. I said it last week when I layed the points with GB as well. Then GB hammered SEA, despite dropping down 14-0 early on 2 turnovers, and I think I over reacted to GB beating down a team I think stinks.

I really believe this game is going to be close, and if anyone has an advantage in the freezing cold, as a team, it's probably the veteran NYG. Yea, Favre won't be affected, as he's been there and done that, but some of the younger guys on GB may not have experienced such weather. In addition, GB turned in their worst performance of the season at CHI, in similar conditions.

Just going with the odds here, as taking over a TD with a hot team, in a game where I see a closely contested 4 quarters, looks like the better value. And likewise, getting +270 on the ML for a team I see to be in it for the whole game is also a nice value to me.

Just trying to put myself on the side which I feel has the better chance to cover the number.

I also think everyone is looking for the Brady/Favre superbowl, and many think it's basically a shoe in to happen. While I wouldn't mind seeing it (as long as GB wins, lol)....I don't think it's that simple, and due to those perceptions, both lines are inflated.

Basically all I need is one upset to profit here, and if both stay within the number I make a nice profit....and if that happens and one upsets, I make a big profit.

Only way I lose is if both dogs get blown out, which IMO, is not likely....since that means every single parlay and teaser placed (GB/NE) this week would cash and the books would get murdered.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

nice writeups....makes lots of sense (although I'm on the other side! lol) Gl Stif. This is one week where I truely believe anything could happen....2 fav blowouts wouldn't surprise, yet 2 covers wouldn't either...lol....hopefully they're good games like last week!



Oh....and I notice not one mention of a certain QB in the Giants write-up....

[Stifler's Mom]

I also would like to add about the NEP/SDC game that Norv Turner, while not known as the greatest motivator, is considered to be an X's and O's genius.

The relevance, is that SD clearly does not need motivation today, but they will need great play calling.

So while I, like many, question Norv's ability as a head coach, I don't think it's an issue today.

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

nice writeups....makes lots of sense (although I'm on the other side! lol) Gl Stif. This is one week where I truely believe anything could happen....2 fav blowouts wouldn't surprise, yet 2 covers wouldn't either...lol....hopefully they're good games like last week!



Oh....and I notice not one mention of a certain QB in the Giants write-up....

LOL yea, fading him has gotten me nowhere but 2 losses so far.

If you can't beat em, join em I guess

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

LOL yea, fading him has gotten me nowhere but 2 losses so far.

If you can't beat em, join em I guess

lol...yeah! If he beats me today, for the third week in a row, that means I have to back him in the SB!!! lol. I'm banking on him screwing up in the subzero weather...he 2 worst games of the year were the ones played in the coldest weather, and he's said himself the cold weather affected his play. We'll see...if he gets it done, nobodys going to be giving him mad props more than me. lol

As for NE...with my teaser it's essentially pick a winner, so if SD is able to beat Indy then NE on the road this year, especially with a banged up team, that would rank as one of the best runs to the SB in NFL history (and if they went to win it all, it would rank as the best SB run in history, IMO). Essentially betting against that. NE 10 point win, and we both cash! lol

Enjoy...

[Stifler's Mom]

If only SD could get a TD here and there....

Still an easy ATS cash though

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

If only SD could get a TD here and there....

Still an easy ATS cash though

horrible play callin' in the red zone....

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by homedawg

horrible play callin' in the red zone....

Tell me about it. Could it have been any more predictable that they were gonna run the ball?

SD really did outplay NE for 3+ qtrs, with the exception of their inability to get TD's, till the end when they couldn't come up with a stop and allowed the last TD and then let em run the clock out

[Larry]

Good Job today Stif!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Now do I hop on the Eli train? lmao

[Stifler's Mom]

NEP opened at -14. Already knocked down to -13 at Olympic and 5 dimes. Holding at -14 +109 at Pinny.

Hop on the Eli train

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

-14 +109 at Pinny.

Hop on the Eli train