early lines

[hodown]

early lines out at thegreek, and we have some homedawgs:

cinci -1 @ balt

nyj -3 @ mia

jax -3 @ tenn

det -3 @ atl

sea -1 @ buf

dal -4 @ cle

ari -3 @ sf

den -3 @ oak

mia, tenn, atl, buf, cle, and perhaps sf could be live imo. sea giving points that far across the country is a bit of a surprise. and i think nyj will be overvalued to start the year with the addition of favre. and det giving points on the road to anyone is quite generous

[Daws1089]

I'm glad you started this hodown.

A few of the home dogs I liked were tennessee, oakland and buffalo. Denver just doesn't have the weapons anymore and I like oakland as a team on the rise with a solid defense and good run game to help the young qb. Buffalo should be a team that surprises all seaosn long. I love their defense too and Seattle is always a good fade in my mind when they play on the road. A much weaker seattle team this season too I think. Tennessee is just a scrappy team. Another solid defense I think and one of the top teams in the nfl as far as rushing attempts. The jax/ten game could go either way I think but something draws me to tennessee.


Other lines I liked were Pittsburgh -7 and indy -9.

I think both of them handle their opponents by double digits, these could be public plays but I'm just going by the pick the winner philosophy.

[yomonte]

If my memory severs me correctly, Sea hasn't won their first game on the east coast in along time.

[hodown]

definitely a fan of pitt in the pick the winner scenario. public over 70% on det and nyj as of right now as well

[The Gipper]

Me thinks SF is a live dog. Martz will have them putting points on the baord. Arizona does not deserve to be a 3-point road fav.
Thinkyou are also right about the Jets early on.
Pitt should cover at home in the opener

[xplosio]

I'm not so sure about Indy, Daws1089. As much as I see Bears stuck near the bottom of the league, I am concerned with offensive line situation with Colts now that Jeff Saturday is out (as well as his wouldbe replacement Lilja). Not so with Manning's readiness, although some see it as a bad question mark. Just looking at my numbers, Colts should be giving at least a TD and a FG, and even more. Do you (or others) share my concerns or am I just being overnervous here?

[SammyJ]

I didnt realize there were this many home dogs. Even tho I'm from bmore and yes, I know well enough that the Ravens sucks balls, I very much like them at home against cincy. Do you guys think the line will jump up to maybe Bengals-3 by gametime?

[xplosio]

I doubt it SammyJ. I'm favoring the Ravens by 2.5 so I will probably take them as soon as they peak, most likely with the maximum somewhere at 1.5 or 2.0.

[bookiekilla]

Falcons start the season 1-0

[hodown]

well ill tell you right now that neither baltimore or cinci will be getting any of my money. and detroit on the road will not be getting my money either.

[Underdog88]

Ahhh yes the Discussion thread


Have a ton of thoughts about the games, still sifting through them for plays. A couple random thoughts thrown in.



Jax/Tenn- Don't know if I want to lay divisional road chalk (already and it's only week 1 lol) but the Jags are the better team. I think the Titans could have trouble all season getting the ball in the endzone- they were unsuccessful in 5 trips into the redzone this preseason. Young's throwing hand is injured though nobody knows how badly. They beat the Jags week one last season in Jax, rushing for 282 yards in a 13-10 victory. Jax beat the Titans 28-13 in tenn, where Gray started. Tons of running, and I am sure tons of physical defense keyed in on the run. 37 is a pretty sharp number, but I still lean under. Thinking the Titans team under could be an option as jax could be the ones scoring more.



Steelers- All this talk of the Browns has me thinking the Steelers may have a statement game on their hands. Generally I have an early lean this season to look for plays on Pitt at home, & look for spots to fade them on the road vs solid defensive teams. Big Ben should be able to have a good passing season, despite concerns of their o-line. Pretty solid wr & Heath if they can stay healthy. I think their defense is not what it once was, but we'll see. I think Houston could potentially have a good offense, yet there are concerns at rb. I don't think Pitt is the best place for Shaub to open the season. Defensively, I think Houston is better than advertised. Mario Williams will be a beast, & they have a pretty solid d-line. Demeco Ryans is also a stud. IMO their weakness is their secondary, so provided Ben gets some time, I would think that's something the Steelers can exploit. I'm looking to back Houston in some games at home this season, & fade on the road. Last seasons road results....


*beat Carolina and Oakland on the road*

lost by 10 @ATL

lost by 20 @JAX

lost by 25 @SD

lost by 10 @CLEV

lost by 8 @TEN

lost by 23 @IND


That eases my mind a bit about laying the chalk. 6.5 looks like a beatable line to me, even if it's a close game throughout...

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by hodown

well ill tell you right now that neither baltimore or cinci will be getting any of my money. and detroit on the road will not be getting my money either.

I may bet on the Bengals


I think the Ravens are capable of playing good defensively, but are aging. Still a ton of concern on offense for them as well. Palmer will have a big year.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by xplosio

I'm not so sure about Indy, Daws1089. As much as I see Bears stuck near the bottom of the league, I am concerned with offensive line situation with Colts now that Jeff Saturday is out (as well as his wouldbe replacement Lilja). Not so with Manning's readiness, although some see it as a bad question mark. Just looking at my numbers, Colts should be giving at least a TD and a FG, and even more. Do you (or others) share my concerns or am I just being overnervous here?

I think the line is right. -9.5 accounts for injuries as IMO a tip top Colts team would be favored by 11 or so. The Bears offense is still trash, & the Colts D is good enough to create some turnover opportunities. Peyton will be fine. My sole concern about laying this chalk is the Bears special teams! Hester is a constant threat, & the Colts special teams are far from the best- remember the Chargers game last year?


All things considered, I think it's a Colts or no play situation here. There will be better spots to fade them over a home opener vs a bad NFC team!



Looking into a 8 pt teaser

Steelers+1
Chargers-2
Colts-2.5

Pays +110 @ 5Dimes. ML the 3 teams would get you 98 to 100, so the teaser looks like the better option.

[NittanyLions94]

Haven't looked a ton, but already played 2 units on the Bills at a pk. Some other leans and a small thought on each:

Cowboys -5.5

Browns still don't have anything that resembles a D. TO, Barber, and Romo should have a field day against them. The Browns can score, but I'm still not totally sold on Derek Anderson as a top-flight NFL QB.

Vikings +3

New QB in GB playing against one of the better defenses in the NFL. I know that Jackson was pretty bad last year, but he has a year experience and just needs to let the D and AP win the game and he has to just not lose it.

Just skimmed over the lines other than the Bills play, hafta look at it again before I decide to play any more for real.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I got 2 Homedogs on my Card in week 1 from that list...Buffalo and Oakland (although Buffalo is a pickem or -1 now).