Week 2

[Stifler's Mom]

ats 6-7 (-2.80 units)
dog ml 1-5 (-3.80 units)
total 7-12 (-6.60 units)

1pm games:

Minnesota Viqueens +2.5 (-105)

The Colts are a mess. They looked discombobulated at home vs the Bears last Sunday night, making the Bears look like a super bowl contender. With offensive line issues, Dallas Clark being questionable and their 2nd TE (name eluding me) already tagged as out, plus Peyton still getting in shape for the season (imo anyway), I don't see where the Colts do any better this week. I know many probably have a very hard time seeing the Colts losing 2 straight games outright, but when you consider all the factors, and the fact that the line opened with them as a fave of under a fg (imo begging for action on the Colts as an "easy winner" to cover under a FG), and then on top of that has actually dropped at most places all the way to a pk or -1, despite the expected assault of public bets on the Peytons, it becomes a little easier to see....at least to me.

I will admit that this was the toughest play for me to pull the trigger on this week, but in the end when i weighed all the factors, i feel it's the right choice and the correct side, so i went with it.

Carolina Panthers -3 (-115)

The Bears got a high profile road win in the Sunday night game, while i'm sure far less people saw the SD/CAR game, and may think the CAR win out there was a fluke, or that they got lucky.

I watched the SD/CAR game last week, and I thought CAR looked awesome. I was impressed with them (and sad I didn't take the +9 points, lol) and can't believe they are only laying -3 this week in the home opener to Cowboy Bob Orton and the rest of that Bears offense, to be honest. I am not believing the Bears offense is improved over the mess they have been for how long now just because they looked decent for one game and managed to benefit from some of the opportunities they were given for a change.

And, Even if the Beras are improved from last year, winning 2 straight road games outright is difficult for anyone except the elite NFL teams, and that is something I certainly do not believe the Bears qualify as. Like I said in the Minny write up, the Colts sucking had as much to do with the Bears looking good as the Bears actually being good did, imho.

Detroit Lionesses +3 (+100)

First off, Detroit has always been a completely different team at home. They actually did play half respectably last week at ATL too....AFTER dropping to an early 21-0 hole.

With that being said, this play is less ON Detroit, and more AGAINST Green Bay.

IMO, the honeymoon is over. They were all hyped up for their MNF game, which was also their home opener and the reg season debut of Rogers, and they impressed big time.

Not saying they will come out completely flat, but I also find it hard to believe they keep the intensity of last week and carry that momentum on the road to Detroit. It's time to play football now, and this is still the NFL....a league in which not sure this GB team is ready to be a road fave, especially not in the situation they are in this week.

St Louis Lambs +8.5

Ahhhh....how could ANYONE pick the Lambs to keep it even remotely close against the super bowl champs after they took a 35 point beat down at the hands of Philly last week?

Well, for one, the Lambs were supposed to have it all together heading into the season, and then got dismantled at Philly. They have have also always been night and day between road and home though, and no NFL team is really ever as good/bad as they look from one week to the next either. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that they are not the team that got brutalized last week by the Eagles.

Secondly, similar to the GB situation, I believe the same sorta holds true for the NYG here....in the respect that they were the super bowl champs, they came out in game 1 and made their statement that the SB win wasn't a fluke, and now they have to move on and play the rest of the season.....against a "****ty" team who they may take for granted a bit after seeing what fellow NFC East team Philly did to the Lambs last week.

I believe the Lambs will surprise quite a few people and be competitive today, and that's really all I need when catching 8.5 points.

Washington Redskins +1 (+100)

I'm not buying the hype that the 'Aints are a real contender, and I'm not buying them as a road fave either. Remember, this is a team that has historically sucked on the road, and this is the home opener for the Skins. The hogs will be ready to go today. With extra time to prepare, and the ton of weapons they now have on offense, AND an offensive minded head coach, they should put up plenty of points against a questionable Saints defense.

Anytime I see a home dog that I feel has a chance of putting up 28+, it's pretty much an automatic play, as it's much easier for a team with a good offense/bad defense to play catch up at home than on the road.....and I don't think 4 TD's is really far fetched for the Skins today.

2 units each

Detroit Lionettes ml +145
Washington Redskins ml +105
Minnesota Viqueens ml +120

1 unit each

1pm games I passed on:

Buffalo/Jacksonville - maybe it is because I want to root for Buffalo, but part of it is that after reading some threads here and checking out the injury reports, it looks like JAX is in pretty poor shape on the offensive side of the ball. Still can't buy on the Bills to win outright on the road today though until I see more. Tough one for me cause I'm a fan, i guess....so i passed.

KC/Oakland - How in the HELL could anyone bet on this game? I know i make alot of plays, but seriously!! Picking Oakland to win outright on the road is out of the question, and so is laying points with KC. And to make it even more f'd up, the line dropped against the public from OAK +4 to OAK +3!! Am I to believe there are sharps playing Oakland? Yikes. No thanks....

Tennessee/Cincinnati - This game just completely does not interest me. I didn't even handicap it. The Bungles suck, and there is no way I'm playing them....and Tennessee I have no idea what to expect from. Sorry Bungles/Titans fans, but this is one of those games that I probably wouldn't even watch if it was the only game on (unless I was REALLY bored, lol), let alone have enough interest in it to take the time to handicap it and/or make a wager on it.

4pm games in a bit....these write ups take time and i wanna get the 1pm's posted in case anyone actually finds my write ups useful, lol

[HoosierDaddy]

Completely agree with you on Carolina.

Washington, however... Did you see that game against the Giants? I don't think Campbell even acompleted a pass til like 5 minutes left in the first half.

[Stifler's Mom]

I just believe the Aints defense is a far cry from that of the Giants.

I think the Skins will get the running game going today, which will set up the pass and make things a heck of alot easier on Campbell....and Washington really does have alot of pretty good offensive players too. I think with the extra time to prepare and a far less potent defense facing them, i believe they get it going today.

I've been wrong before, but that's how I saw it....

[HoosierDaddy]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

I just believe the Aints defense is a far cry from that of the Giants.

I think the Skins will get the running game going today, which will set up the pass and make things a heck of alot easier on Campbell....and Washington really does have alot of pretty good offensive players too. I think with the extra time to prepare and a far less potent defense facing them, i believe they get it going today.

I've been wrong before, but that's how I saw it....

Agreed about New Orleans. I don't know WHAT to make of that team after the last two years, lol.

[Stifler's Mom]

4pm & later games:

2 team teaser: SF 49ers +12.5 & New England Patriots +7.5 (-120)

Yea, i know teasers are sucker bets, but this one looks so nice. What disturbs me, however, is that I missed the boat on the SF line at +9.5, +8.5, etc and now it's down to +6.5 and even +6 at some places!! This is how I arrived at playing a teaser.

I think SF competes in this game, and may even win outright (hence the ml play on them), but I still can't get over the loss in value when it moved down to less than a TD and became pick the winner. I'd rather be catching those double digit points than having to worry about the Niners winning outright.

I also believe the Pats win outright today. The Jets DID NOT look good last week at Miami outside of 2 Favre deep balls for the most part. Unlike the Dolphins, I believe the Pats can handle defending this.

Even more so, everyone is telling the Pats their season is over, and while I believe this to be true, as far as winning the super bowl goes, this is still a quality team, and they (imo) are going to shove it directly up the Jets asses today and beat them outright on the road.

I chose this game to tease with SF because out of all of my other plays, it seemed the most logical to do so with, to me....and for no other reason.

Arizona Cardinals -6.5

Arizona managed to win at SF last week, even if it was because they benefited from 5 turnovers, and that kinda impressed me. ARI has ALWAYS sucked on the road, so that's certainly a step in the right direction.

Now they get to play at home, and when looking over the rosters, they totally outclass Miami in just about every position on the field.

It's pick the winner, and I don't think ANYONE could make a legit argument that Miami will win SU here. Simple as that.

If Arizona wins but doesn't cover, then so be it.

Tampon Bay Bucs -7

Same as above. Tampa is 10x the team Atlanta is, and to think Atlanta will win this SU is very very far fetched. Sure, **** happens, but 95% of the time Tampa wins this game outright.

I guess the public got a boner for Atlanta last week cause they won? Big f'n deal. They beat the LIONS....at home.

Going to Tampa is a bit more of a challenge, and I don't think this game will even be close. Getting it at pick the winner is a complete gift, imho.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 (+100)

Maybe I'm a sucker for home dogs, especially on nationally televised games, but there's no way the Browns are as bad as they looked against Dallas (is Dallas really THAT good??), nor are the Steelers as good as they looked against Houston.

This is always a heated rivalry, and I believe these are 2 evenly matched teams, with a line all out of whack due to what happened with both of them last week.

And, If i remember correctly, the Steelers struggled on the road last year, while blowing out a few teams at home.

Home field and proving they DON'T suck go on the side of the Brownies here, and I like their chances.

2 units each

New England Patriots ml +100
San Francisco 49ers ml +230
Cleveland Browns ml +230

1 unit each

The other game I passed on:

San Diego/Denver - I just couldn't come up with a decent reason to play either side in this game. I decided I could pretty much argue for and against both teams equally, so, no play for me.

[wsox08]

GL today stif, great write ups and I enjoy reading them. I agree with you on Min, Carolina, and the Skins

[BUNK MORELAND]

I'm on Jax

let's see what happens