MNF

[Stifler's Mom]

sides 11-10 (+0.90 units)
dog ml's 4-8 (-2.45 units)
overall 15-18 (-1.55 units)

"Wow, huge value to take my Eagles, they're going to be the more fired up team going in to Dallas to SET the tone for the rest of the division to follow!!"

"Philly is gonna blitz the hell out of Dallas and will keep Romo guessing. Will he still get his stats? Yeah, but will they win? Maybe. Will they cover? Absolutely not. Book It!!"

These are things I'm seeing when just browsing for opinions on this game....amongst others. One main underlying theme I am seeing is that just about everyone thinks Dallas will probably win, but Philly will cover because it's too many points.

We all know that is flawed thinking in the NFL. The Browns losing/covering last night is probably fresh in lots of people's minds too.

I can't help but find it difficult to think Philly will win this game SU. So they stomped the NFL doormat St Louis Lambs, at home. We saw what those guys were made of yesterday when the Giants proceeded to pound them in a game that probably really wasn't even as close as the final score (the 2nd Lamb TD came on what basically amounted to a hail mary to Torry Holt in the 4th qtr).

Despite all the blunders that kept them from having a shot at beating Pittsburgh last night, there is no question Cleveland is a far better team than the Lambs, and Dallas just totally obliterated them.

Maybe this is shallow reasoning, but I need to see more from Philly before I'm gonna take em to win SU at Dallas this year. I don't care if they've won 6 of the last 8 there either. Dallas stank until like last year and Philly was a perennial playoff/super bowl contender, so it stands to reason. If anything, it tells me Philly won't sneak in there and surprise Dallas, since they beat them last year in Dallas as well.

My own opinion that Dallas has a far better chance of winning outright, along with seeing ALOT of flawed reasoning for taking the Eagles, leads me to have no choice but to use pick the winner, and to play Dallas tonight....

Dallas Cowgirls -6.5 -115

2 units

[Stifler's Mom]

Also was going to make the point that I believe Philly will find it a bit tougher throwing to those practice squad WR's against Dallas than they did vs St Louis....but I somehow left it out, lol.

Oh well

[homedawg]

My thoughts Exactly! GL Stif

[rawhide]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

sides 11-10 (+0.90 units)
dog ml's 4-8 (-2.45 units)
overall 15-18 (-1.55 units)

One main underlying theme I am seeing is that just about everyone thinks Dallas will probably win, but Philly will cover because it's too many points.

We all know that is flawed thinking in the NFL. The Browns losing/covering last night is probably fresh in lots of people's minds too.



My own opinion that Dallas has a far better chance of winning outright, along with seeing ALOT of flawed reasoning for taking the Eagles, leads me to have no choice but to use pick the winner, and to play Dallas tonight....

Dallas Cowgirls -6.5 -115

2 units

Saw a stat that the straight up winner is like 90% ATS in this game

[Stifler's Mom]

First off, congrats to anyone who had the Eagles last night. And what can I say? Pick the winner failed 2 nights in a row now, lol.

I know what I'm about to say is going to rub some people the wrong way, and that's ok. My main purpose is to try and contribute here and come up with winners, and IMO the results of last night's game were grossly misleading.

So do what you want with my opinion, or just completely ignore it, but I feel this is a situation where I need to give it. And remember, this is only my OPINION....and anyone can feel to disagree....but if you do disagree, please post your reasoning here. If i'm the one misled, i would like to know why.

So here's what I saw last night:

IF Dallas doesn't turn it over leading directly to 2 Eagles TD's in the first half (most notably one IN the end zone where Philly didn't have to do anything but fall on the ball), this game results in an easy Cowgirls cover. By at least 17-20 points.

Think I'm nuts? Consider this....

1. Eagles won the turnover battle, but Dallas won the game. Why? Because Dallas was the better team and they overcame the turnover deficit....something you don't see too often. I believe the number is in the 80%+ range for the team with a +1 turnover (which is what Philly had last night) to win outright.

2. Dallas all but dominated the 2H, which is when it counted. They outscored Philly 17-7 in the 2nd half, and stopped Philly in the last few mins when they were attempting to mount a game winning drive, while Philly could really never stop Dallas. When the Cowgirls were down, they drove down and got points....seemingly almost at will.

Just trying to point this out for for:

a) those who might lose faith in the "pick the winner" because it didn't work 2 games in a row....which is SO rare, i can't even remember the last time something like that happened. Hell, normally it doesn't ever even happen twice in the same weekend!!

b) those who may use this game in capping future games when comparing results against like opponents, or whatever.

The Eagles capitalized on Dallas mistakes well, and kudos to them, but Dallas is the better team, and that's why they came back and won the game. Just might be something to consider when moving forward....instead of thinking the Eagles are the better team and/or were the right side, because they aren't/weren't.

And thus cuncludes the gospel according to Stifler for this week, LMFAO

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

IF Dallas doesn't turn it over leading directly to 2 Eagles TD's in the first half (most notably one IN the end zone where Philly didn't have to do anything but fall on the ball), this game results in an easy Cowgirls cover. By at least 17-20 points.

That's why the books had no problem spotting philly 7 in the 2h, and the books I watch got hit hard on philly +7(2h). IMO, The (2h) line shoulda been dallas -3 to -4, but the books knew there were 14pts giftwrapped for philly in the 1h!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah...I see what you're saying...but I don't know...I guess it's possible to see it both ways, depending on who you have. I mean, Dallas did return a kickoff, and were handed 2 fumble recoveries when Philly was on it's way to scoring. Especcially the last fumble in the 4th. If that doesn't happen...with only a couple minutes left, Philly at least goes up by a TD, or possibly 2 scores to seal the game. And it's not like Dallas forced those two fumbles...it was bone-head handoffs by McNabb. Flukes. IMO, that game was too close to think laying a TD was the right play. If I didn't have parlay/hedge stuff going on, I woulda been on Philly for sure. JMO.

That being said...I think I'm fading Philly laying 4 next week against the Steelers. lol. Steelers look very average against Cleveland. Philly almost wins on the road against a team some seem to consider the best of all time, and puts up a ton of points for the second straight week. Public Hammering Philly off that game to no end. I'll go with the team that can actually play a little defence, who can run the ball and who doesn't turn the ball over...and thats the Steelers.

Re: PickAwinner... I don't think the Philly Cover really has any bearing on the pick a winner's success, as a crazy shootout game like this has too many variables, and in a normal NFL game, where some defence is actually played...the system will truely show up.



Anyway...always like a discussion, and insight.
GL next week!