Week 3

[Stifler's Mom]

ats 11-11 (-1.40 units)
dog ml 4-8 (-2.45 units)
overall 15-19 (-3.85 units)

1pm games:

Minnesota Viqueens -3 (-105)

I was impressed with Carolina after week 1. Now, not so much so. After seeing the way Denver shredded the San Diego defense, I don't see it as so thrilling that Carolina put 26 on em, 7 of which came on a last minute TD. I was also less than impressed that the Colts handed the Bears a win in week 1, or that the Bears at least kinda handed Carolina a win in week 2, so I don't see Carolina beating the Bears last week as a big thrill either, as I think they were handed a game, at home, against a so-so Bears team.

The public is ALL OVER Carolina in this game. 74% ATS and 89% ML. Guess the Minny collapse last week vs Indy and Carolina's 2-0 record are fresh in their minds.

They can have Carolina. I'll take what I feel are the better defense (Viqueens), better running game (Viqueens), home field advantage (Viqueens), and more desperate team (Viqueens) in a pick the winner situation.

Also feel like i'm siding with sharp money here, since the line has never moved, despite a constant public onslaught on Caroliina.

Tampon Bay Bucs +3 (+105)

This line opened at Bucs +3.5, and quickly got hammered down to +3. A nice indicator of sharp money.

Like I said above, I'm not thrilled with the Bears either. They're ok, but there's no way that offense isn't still a HUGE question mark. I mean they ran the ball ok against Indy, and that opened things up for Cowboy Bob Orton to look ok as a passer, but they didn't do doggy doo on offense last week against Carolina.

I don't think it gets any easier against the Bucs, and I can't help but wonder if the Bears are a victim of turnovers like they so often have been in the past, and/or big special teams plays, instead of the beneficiaries of such things like in the first 2 weeks, how bad they might once again look.

No Hester, a Bears offense that still isn't (imo) very good, and a Bucs defense that should be able to match the Bears defense doesn't leave any glaring holes in the armor of this dog from where I stand, and if this were on a neutral field, i believe TB would be a -5 or -6 fave....so the line is (again, imo) inflated.

If TB just holds on to the ball, doesn't give Chicago gifts, and tackles when they're on defense, they win this outright from where I stand.

Washington Redskins -3 (-115)

Getting any decent team at a fg or less (or even pick the winner) at home vs the Arizona Cardinals is imo always a play that has to be at least considered.

This Arizona team benefited from a gift wrapped win at SF (granted, still a win), and beating up on one of the worst teams (especially on the road) that this league has seen in quite a while (Miami).

Now they have to travel cross country to take on what is without a doubt their stiffest competition yet. The Skins played 2 far tougher teams, and showed some heart, character (and ability) in coming from behind to beat the 'Aints last week.

It should also be noted that Kurt Warner is a turnover machine when pressured (both with fumbles and interceptions), so that could easily come into play today as well.

Arizona does have some nice playmakers in Boldin and Fitzgerald which certainly always makes their offense both capable and dangerous, but I'm just going to have to see more from the Cardinals before NOT automatically fading them at such a low line on the road.

Cincinnati Bungles +13.5

UGH!! I didn't think this is a team I'd be backing anytime soon, but it appears the love affair with the Giants has begun, as if they are now the New England Patriots of last season. If they cover this one, will they be freakin -21 in week 5 (week 4 bye) at home vs Seattle?

In all seriousness, the Giants appear to be a quality team, and once again a contender....but with that being said, they are not the Patriots of last year (as far as the ability to score 40 or 50 points just about every week), and this is (IMO) too many points for them to be laying to even the Bungholes.

Probably the only reason this line this high is because everyone, their brother, mother, sister and dog are teasing the Giants down under a TD, but strangely enough, this line is holding steady at +13 at most books, telling me the books are accepting the risk of the Giants being teased under a TD, but definitely do NOT wanna give 2 TD's to the Bungholes.

I believe this indicates sharp money on the Bungles, and mine will be on them too, as I believe a few scores by the offense and even a half decent effort by a bad Bungles defense covers this number more times than not.

The only way i really see this not covering is if the Bungles are at least -2 in the turnover battle, and the Giants are able to get scores directly, or be set up for easy scores off those turnovers.

Houston Texases +5 (-105)

I don't even know what to say here. I'm not a big follower of either of these teams, but I do know Tennessee has to be the worst 2-0 team in the league, and this looks like as good of a spot as any to fade them. In addition, the line opened at HOU +6, and has since dropped as low as +4.5 at most books against 74% on the Titans ATS, another indicator of possible sharp money. Like that crappy old Eurythmics song from the early 80's, who am I to disagree? LOL

2 units each

Tampon Bay Bucs ml +145
Houston Texases ml +190

1 unit each

[Horfin]

Stif,

I don't know if this is good or bad...But I agree with them all EXCEPT the Hou/Ten Game. I hope you win all except that last one.

Good Luck

Horfin

[Underdog88]

GL Stif & Let's Go Buffalo!

[Stifler's Mom]

I would actually consider laying the points with the Bills this week...but I have them on the ml in a parlay that I made yesterday as kind of a joke, but now actually seems to have a pretty good chance of cashing, along with SD ml on MNF, as the only 2 remaining plays.

I just don't see Oakland covering 2 weeks in a row on the road, and I also believe many are underestimating the Bills this year. I've been impressed with them in all phases of the game, and if Oakland turns the ball over and allows the Bills easy scores, that game is going to be a blowout imo.

I think the Raiderettes would have to play a pretty darn near perfect game to keep it in single digits. I think the ass whooping the Raiders took vs Denver is more relevant than the one they gave to KC, as KC is probably the worst team in the NFL.

But, as long as the Bills win by 1, i'm happy, for my parlay and for a 3-0 Bills start

How strange is it to think the Bills SHOULD start this year at least 4-0, unless they manage to lose to NFL doormats Oakland or St Louis

Go Bills

[Stifler's Mom]

Christ, I don't think the Bills could play any worse. 3 turnovers, and a huge kickoff return allowed to start the game. At least they still have a shot, but ****, talk about giving a game away

New Orleans 'Aints +5.5 (-105)
Cleveland Browns +2.5

2 units each

New Orleans 'Aints ml +190
Cleveland Browns ml +115

1 unit each

No time for write ups, I gotta get back to watching the Bills suck.

Also looking to play the Colts, but hoping for a -4. My book is slow

[Larry]

Also looking to play the Colts, but hoping for a -4. My book is slow [/QUOTE]


3.5 @ 5dimes

[Larry]

nevermind, back to 4

[Stifler's Mom]

SIA never moved off -4.5

Colts -4.5

2 units

I really need to have multiple books again....

[Stifler's Mom]

By the way, how many freakin points did Houston give away?

I count at least 10 (assuming short fg's and extra points SHOULD be made - if they wouldn't have been going for f'n touchdowns in the 3rd qtr already on 4th down), and i wasn't even watching the game. Just flipping thru

[Stifler's Mom]

Bills by 1

They overcame a -2 turnover margin too (about a 10% shot of that happening by NFL historical standards) and played well when they needed to in the 4th qtr, despite sucking for most of the game.

The sign of a winner?

Hopefully

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by Horfin

Stif,

I don't know if this is good or bad...But I agree with them all EXCEPT the Hou/Ten Game. I hope you win all except that last one.

Good Luck

Horfin

Looks like that makes you 5-0 on those 5 plays. Nice job

[Biff_Tannen]

Cashed in on a couple of those with you... nice day so far Stifler!

[daft_picks]

Nice job on the plays stiff, just want to ask if you still think the Titans are the worst 2-0 (now 3-0) team in the league. Still worse than the Pats? Houston was not giving away points they were stuffed on the goal line numerous times. Titans played amazing D and good O today, just want to stand up for them as they are much improved and looking good atop their division. Good luck to you on the rest of your day!

[PackAttack]

Nice work so far today stifler WTG. Any thoughts on tonights game?

[Stifler's Mom]

Not kicking FG's at that point in the game is giving away points. They also missed a FG on a mishandled snap (i think i remember seeing that happen) and botched an extra point.

The point remains, i don't think really Tennessee is very good. I mean yes, they made a bunch of stops today on the goal line, but wtf was Houston doing down there so many times in the first place?

Tennessee is sound defensively, and that's been enough so far.....but i just don't think they're really that great.

Who knows, i've certainly misread things before....and after seeing today's game, Denver might have them beat with their complete lack of defense.

A few things I do know, is that the Cleveland Browns are the biggest bunch of vaginas in the NFL, led by their head vagina, Kellen Winslow Jr.

And that the Colts defense is pretty vaginal in their own right. Those drives by Jacksonville were ridiculous in the 2nd half.

Nice ******* job by the 'Aints blowing the win too there at the end.

Guess I should lay off the late game, because SIA has a ******* piece of **** line up (Dallas -3 -130....I WILL have another book by next week), but I won't. I'll just play the ML

2 units on Dallas ML at -150....i mean what the ****, buying 3 points for 20 cents is a hell of a deal.