Week 4 Looks

[hodown]

Den -9.5 @ KC
Well even in a tough rivalry game, I don't know how anyone could want to lay their hard earned money on KC. KC could easily be 0-14 heading into their home game w/ Miami. Having said that, giving 9.5 and being on the road isn't usually what I like to lay on either. Not sure who's starting for KC at qb as of yet.

Cle @ Cinci -3.5
I had Cleveland last week as well, and that was ugly. Perhaps Balt is better than I thought, but I doubt it. Maybe a little. Cle offense has been pathetic so far. Cinci actually showed life last week, and may warrant consideration imo.

Hou @ Jax -7.5
Callers down here want Kubiak's head and our calling for Rosenfels. Callers usually don't know sh*t however. Anyway, Hou schedule has been brutal to this point, and last weeks loss to Tenn wasnt as bad as the score showed. But I dont see how Hou finds there way this week in Jax when, a) Jax comes off a much needed victory in Indy, and, b) its a divisional rivalry game. I like Jax, may tease them b/c of the hook

SF @ NO -6
NO played well enough to win last week, and bc this is a divisional game I cant see the letdown here. Niners have beaten two very poor teams and lost to a respectable AZ team. The line is probably a touch low imo, and even though Shockey and Colston our out, I like NO in a pick the winner situation, in what is a must win I feel for NO

Atl @ Car -7
Car in a pick the winner scenario, and even though they notoriously suck at home, I like them here. Atlanta runs the ball well and plays def, but I'm going to look to fade them on the road, mainly bc of the rookie qb thing. I felt good giving 7 with TB against Atl, and I feel good giving 7 here

Minn @ Ten -3
Tenn score last wk not indicative of the game. Hou left 9 points on the board from over-aggressive play calls on off, and threw a pick 6 on 4th down with under 1:00 to go. I really liked fading Minny early, bc they seemed to be the fancy pick to be good, but how can you be good with Jackson??? In what may be a low scoring game, I like Minny getting the points. I think Tenn is good, perhaps not as good as their record. Keep in mind their 3-0 against a 1-2 team and getting only the standard 3 for homefield

GB @ TB -1
Depends who the qb is. If Garcia is starting I like TB. I dont see him on the injury report, but i do see Al Harris is gone for the year. TB is not a sexy team, which means their a good team to bet on. Not a lot of great players, not alot of sportscenter time, but they do have a Garrard clone in Garcia. GB didnt look amazing on the road in Det, and TB will be much harder

Buf -8 @ StL
StL is in the same boat as KC. i'm not laying money on them, no way. That being said I dont know how good Buf is, whereas it seems we have some Buf fans on the boards that would have a better take

Wash @ Dal -11.5
Its alot of points, and so far the pub likes Wash. its always tough to bet against Dal, because you just dont know if theyre gonna lay the wood to somebody or not. The Dal defense is still shotty imo, but Im not sure if Wash has the horses on offense. The line was 11 last year and Wash lost by 5, but there will be no sneaking up, especially in a divisional game. Prob best to wait and see the line action but a tough line imo

Ari @ NYJ -3
Well I've faded NYJ every game this year and will prob do so again. I just dont buy in that Favre can help this team, theres not enough weapons around him. And when there isnt enough weapons around him he starts chucking sh*t up like he did a few years ago when GB sucked. Ari played Wash tough last wk getting the same amount of points and I think Wash is a better team than NYJ

SD -7 @ Oak
Ive taken Oak as a homedawg for the last time when they played Den. I did it all last year and they lost every game. On the flipside, I like to bet the Chargers, and in a pick the winner situation I will prob do so again. Oak has looked better the last two weeks, but that coaching situation has to be a distraction. Imo Buf letdown and KC sucks however

No lines for the following
Phi @ Chi

Bal @ Pit

Just some of my views, feel free to add...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Garcia?
Griese threw for 400+ yards last week in a comeback road win, and is definitely the starter in TB...

I'm looking at Minny, TB, Zona & SD....

[NittanyLions94]

Willie Parker and Casey Hampton both out for the Steelers this week. Steelers are paper thin on the DL right now.

[Daws1089]

just a note, the san fran/NO game is not a division game. I might look to the over in this one bc the saints just really don't want to play defense this year at all and are the same old team.


Anyway, I liked the bengals a lot. I don't know if its because i'm remembering last weeek's game too much, but they just seemed to have turned the corner and carson is going to do whatever he can to put this team on his back and make things better. A home win against the lowly browns and the state that they are in is certainly not out of the question.


I also like TB. I think Griese will play at qb and thats ok. GB run game is not the same as it once was and their defense took a big hit without harris now, but TB balanced attack i like at home. Public all over GB and rodgers at that low dog line too.


I also like minny I think. Their defense is really good. And especially good against the run which is what tennessee loves to do. I'm thinking we see some of kerry collins past and some INTs from him. Line seems low anyway with an undefeated team at home against a 1 win team?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

St. Louis benching Bulger, going with Green

Pressured to shake up an offense that ranked 31st in the league, Rams coach Scott Linehan benched Marc Bulger on Tuesday and has given the starting job to Trent Green

Linehan made the announcement with a one-sentence statement Tuesday. He won't comment until his normal press conference Tuesday afternoon.

Bulger completed only 52 of 89 attempts for 519 yards in this first three games, but pass protection has been the big problem. He's been sacked 11 times. Bulger is only 19 games into a six-year, $65.1 million contract signed in the summer of 2007.

Green, 38, is in his second tour of duty with the Rams. He was with the Rams in 1999 and 2000 before making stops in Kansas City and Miami.

With his longtime offensive coordinator Al Saunders running the Rams offense, Green decided to sign on to be the Rams backup. Now, heading into Sunday's game against the Bills, Green will be the starter.

[Daws1089]

i dont see this making much of a difference for the rams, it might make it worse.

[Horfin]

I don't know if this means anything. Rumor is that Quinn starts for Brownies.

8 of the last 18 games theBengals have played in have been against the Backup QB....we all know how well Cincy has done with almost 50%of their games against the backup. Ideal situation to bring in Quinn.


Horfin

[Horfin]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

St. Louis benching Bulger, going with Green

Pressured to shake up an offense that ranked 31st in the league, Rams coach Scott Linehan benched Marc Bulger on Tuesday and has given the starting job to Trent Green

Linehan made the announcement with a one-sentence statement Tuesday. He won't comment until his normal press conference Tuesday afternoon.

Bulger completed only 52 of 89 attempts for 519 yards in this first three games, but pass protection has been the big problem. He's been sacked 11 times. Bulger is only 19 games into a six-year, $65.1 million contract signed in the summer of 2007.

Green, 38, is in his second tour of duty with the Rams. He was with the Rams in 1999 and 2000 before making stops in Kansas City and Miami.

With his longtime offensive coordinator Al Saunders running the Rams offense, Green decided to sign on to be the Rams backup. Now, heading into Sunday's game against the Bills, Green will be the starter.

I think regardless the Rams would be a smart play (an over-inflated line based upon the points for and points against over three weeks and the back up qb).

Horfin

[Stifler's Mom]

I don't know that the bills are worthy of being -8 faves on the road or not, but the lambs just suck. They haven't been even remotely close to even being competitive in 3 attempts, and changing to an even less mobile qb when the o'line can't block anyone isn't going to help.

There's gotta be better places to put money than undoubtably the worst team in the league to this point getting a mere +8 vs a 3-0 team that's young and hungry to win.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

and changing to an even less mobile qb when the o'line can't block anyone isn't going to help.

That's what I was thinking....Green better have his life insurance up to date.

That game screams no play, IMO...


Do STL & KC play this year? EPIC

[hodown]

ya sorry about the biffed sf/no divisional thing. did they used to be in the same division or was i way off base??? regardless i still like them getting less than a td, even without shockey and colston. cardinals back to +2 at my book, should be interesting to see where this one goes.

[hodown]

i'm also thinking new orleans, jax, sd, and carolina all look nice in 6 point teasers

[Horfin]

Originally Posted by hodown

ya sorry about the biffed sf/no divisional thing. did they used to be in the same division or was i way off base??? regardless i still like them getting less than a td, even without shockey and colston. cardinals back to +2 at my book, should be interesting to see where this one goes.

Yes they were in the old NFC West together.

[Underdog88]

I see a couple teams that are sure to be public plays, yet have some glaring troubles. One of the biggest things I look at is the run game, & who will dominate the line of scrimmage. Time for a llttle perception vs. reality....


Denver- I know the Chiefs are bad. I also know that the Broncos pass D is the worst in the league surrendering 315 avg per game with 6tds & just 1 int. The Chiefs are allowing 5.5 ypc on the ground (Denver is averaging 4.8- 130 offensively) which is cause for concern on the Chiefs. However, Denver has benefitted from facing the worst pass defenses in the game! Oakland 7th, SD 2nd & NO 4th statistically. The Chiefs have allowed 153 avg per game through the air. I think this could be a game where Cutler comes down to earth. Not an easy play to make with KC, but there are reports that Huard will get the nod, & if that happens, I think this could be a closely played divisional game. LJ finally woke up in the 2ndh of the Atlanta game, I would expect him to put up a strong effort. The more I look at this the more I think it will be a lower scoring, run heavy sort of game, & the total is IMO a bit inflated due to recent Broncos scores. Lean KC+9.5 & under 47.



Saints

Simply put this team has no defense. 258 avg yards passing allowed. 5.3 ypc for an average 133 per game allowed. 49ers are averaging 4.7 ypc/127 on the ground, & Osullivan has been throwing the ball well. SF's pass D has been rock solid, allowing an average of just 160 ypg 2tds & 4 ints. A couple concerns about backing SF- they have allowed 4.2ypc/131 per game, which isn't great. However, the Saints have averaged just 3.4 ypc/81 ypg so far this season. Another concern is the pass protection, as SF has sirrendered 13 sacks this season. Still, I have to lean to the Niners- better run game, run D, Pass D, & getting 6 points.


Packers

What is the #1 concern with backing the Packers right now? I would have to say their run defense, which is giving up 5.7 ypc (a league high) and 151 per game. The Bucs are ruching for an average of 5.5 ypc 119 per game average. I would expect them to try & exploit the Packers run D @ home this week. My concern with backing the Bucs is their pass D, which has allowed 237 passing yards & 5 tds. Still thinking about this game....



Chargers

Pretty obvious to me that the Chargers defense is not quite what people expected. The Chargers are allowing 5 ypc so far this season. Carolina rushed for 142 & Denver rushed for 148 vs SD. The Jets found themselves behind rather quickly, so they abandoned the run pretty much altogether. The Chargers pass D? 2nd worst in the league right now allowing 284 avg per game for 8tds & 4ints. Add thier horrid special teams play, & some questions arise for me. I think that Oakland will be able to run well vs SD (They are averaging 5.1 ypc/182 per game. I question the Raiders ability to exploit such a bad pass D- not sure Russell will be able to make the quick reads & get the ball out in time. I don't think I can back the Raiders, because if they go down early, they will have a ton of trouble trying to come back.





Ran out of time but I will be adding more thoughts tonight. Really quickly, does anyone else want to hammer the Cincy/Browns over? It could have something to do with last year's game lol.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Rams release Fakhir Brown...who is considered the Rams best corner. Rams fans seemed to be perplexed by this move, and it seems like it was something internal.