Week 4 Discussion Thread

[FlyersFan]

didn't see one of these yet so i figured i would start one.

have to ask for an opinion on the Browns/Bengals game. I think that line at -3 1/2 is begging for CLE money and im not seeing it. To me CLE is more of a mess than the Bengals. And in all honestly, the CIN were actually a decent team last weekend and played much better than they had in the previous 2 weeks. both team's defensive stats are almost identical at 22.0 and 22.3 PPG and 347 and 353 yards allowed per game. But both teams also rank at the bottom of the league in offense with CLE ranking dead last at an absolutely abysmal 194 YPG and 8.7 PPG. Now one of those games was that weird sunday night game with 200 MPH winds, but it isn't like they moved the ball in any of their other games. CLE also ranks dead last in TOP and is the most penalized team in the NFL right now. CIN has yet to win as has CLE. In a lot of respects both these teams have sucked ass and are very close in stats. But if CLE plays like CLE and the CIN play like they did last week, i think the bengals win this by a TD plus. The other factor that makes me like CIN is that CIN biggest weakness is its offensive line. But CLE only has 3 sacks on the year and ranks almost last in that category (CIN has ONE...lol) and they allow 150 YPG on the ground. That doesn't look like a team that is poised to take advantage of CIN weaknesses on offense which is allowing sacks to a good pass rush and an inability to run the ball.

But i haven't seen a lot of people on CIN and i see a few who actually like CLE this weekend.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

both team's defensive stats are almost identical at 22.0 and 22.3 PPG and 347 and 353 yards allowed per game. But both teams also rank at the bottom of the league in offense with CLE ranking dead last at an absolutely abysmal 194 YPG and 8.7 PPG. Now one of those games was that weird sunday night game with 200 MPH winds, but it isn't like they moved the ball in any of their other games.

I tend to agree that the hometeam is the play here, especially if the Bengals play like they did last week. I think given who these teams played, it's no surprise they haven't scored much!


The Browns faced Dallas, who ran the ball down their throats after building a huge lead. Romo passed for 320 (indicative of the Browns weak pass D, something IMO Carson could exploit). Dallas rushed for 167 & owned TOP, holding on to the ball for 15 minutes longer than Clev. Next they had Pitt in the windy conditions you mentioned. Then the Ravens, who right now have the number 1 ranked pass D (yes I know they've played Houston & the Browns). Again, the Ravens were able to have the edge in TOP (15 minutes), & were effective in the run game (151 rushing).

Cincy faced the Ravens & Titans, the #1 & #2 pass defenses in the game right now. The Ravens absolutely dominated T.O.P. holding on to the ball 13 minutes more than the Bengals. The Titans rushed for 177 on them & also had the ball 5 minutes more than Cinvy. The Giants don't have the pass D that Balty/Tenn has, & the Bengals were able to move the ball well.

Basically I think that neither of these teams offenses are as bad as they would appear to be, they just faced solid defenses who were able to run the ball well. I think we see both offenses open up much more Sunday, so I have a big lean to the over 44.5. Given the total & spread, the Bengals team total should be 24, a number I suspect they won't have much trouble getting over.......

[daft_picks]

I think the "week 4 looks" unofficially became this thread this week. Regardless I myself like the Bengals over the Browns and over the total as well. Not as much sticks out this week but I believe this is one of the better lines. Good luck this weekend!

[homedawg]

200 mph winds, and I didn't spill a drop that night!


I don't understand how anyone could lay points with either of these teams? The linesmakers did their job with the line, public almost even on the sides. IMO, browns +the points, or lay off!

GL FF

[Drigger]

I am waiting to see the Cinni Team total. I think they should be able to shoot 24+ point up on a pretty bad Cleveland defence. I though they would have a decent defence this year and so far they haven't not proved it at all. Just 3 games in, maybe to early to judge but I like my chances with Cinni on the over Team total. Cinni was able to score some points against a much better Gaints defence on the road. At home and against Cleveland, I'd lean for Cinni to cover and the over.

[Underdog88]

Hopefully Carsons elbow is fine, currently listed as questionable....



Packers/ Bucs


Been back & forth on this one all week. Green Bay with it's first road game of the season, & off a home loss to the Boys. #1 concern with the Packers defense would undoubtedly be the run D. They allowed 216 rushing yds to Dallas & 187 to the Vikings. Detroit only carried the ball around 11 times, even they ran for 4 ypc. All in all, thay are allowing a league worst 5.7 ypc/ 151 per game. Tough to bet on a team with a bad run D on the road. So why not Tampa?

TB certainly can run the ball when they want to. They rushed for 164 vs ATL & are averaging 5.5 ypc for the season. Last week they pretty much abandoned the run vs the Bears carrying 17 times in favor of 67 pass attempts. In the end the gameplan worked, but don't expect it to be a reoccuring theme. It seems to me that if TB can generate a run game to start today, they should be able to open the pass game up a bit at home. Defensively, the Bucs are not the same defensive team playing that lock-down cover 2 you remember. Orton threw for 268 2tds 2ints last week vs them. Atlanta couldn't get anything going vs them, but the Saints amassed 337 passing yards against them. I don't see how Aaron Rodgers has a huge problem today. Kyle Orton ok? I do expect Grant to be much more involved today as well, as this is his first week that he is absent from the injury report. All in all I think that GB has an edge motivation wise off a loss, TB has an edge in the run game & GB has one in the passing game. Total @ 43 thinking both teams are able to put up over 20 each. I'll say 27-20 GB. My one concern is that the status of TB's kicker is uncertain after the loss of his infant child. Not having a kicker could put a damper on the over.

[Underdog88]

Also leaning on the Texans/Jags over 43. Houston has quite the tough start with 3 road games to kick the season off. They allowed 38 vs Pitt, 31 vs the Titans, & now they are @Jax. Houston is allowing 170 rushing yards per game, & I really don't expect that number to get any smaller after facing the Jags. After the Titans & Bills were effective in slowing the run game, the Colts were powerless against it, surrendering 236 on the ground. Jax dominated the top 42/28 vs Indy. I would expect the Jags to put up 28+ here. So it comes down to whether or not Houston can find the endzone. Last week, the Texans were inside the redzone 6 times & came away with 12 points. Pathetic. I think Slaton starting is a big upgrade- speedy back that can also catch the ball. I would think Houston looks to offset Jags blitzes by setting up screens to Slaton early. I see the Texans are a little bit of a trendy pick today, and I don't know what to make of it. I would say the Jags are in a letdown spot off a huge come from behind road win, but given their record I don't think any games get overlooked. Last season these two combined for 54 pts & 70 points, so 43 looks attainable IMO.....

[Stifler's Mom]

3 straight road games for HOU is the only thing keeping me off them as of now.

JAX has done nothing this entire season except run the ball all over Indy last week who was without Bob Sanders, which is less than thrilling really, since everyone torches Indy on the ground when they are without Sanders....

[Underdog88]

yeah Stif, seems like it could go either way to me. I agree Jax hasn't done much, but they did face Ten & Buffalo's defenses. Both are capable of playing solid run defense, something that Houston has yet to show this season. I don't think Jax is the play, but I don't trust Houston enough to play em. I could easily see a 3 point game throughout where Jax wears down the Houston front line & Jones-Drew breaks a late td to cover. I also think that Houston will likely need 14-17 points to cover, as I can't see Houston all of a sudden just shutting the run game down. IMO if they cover it's because they put up points... Now watch em win 13-10 lol




Zona/Jets u44.5

IMo an overreaction to the SD/Jets score results in a little bit of an inflated line. I would think the Jets gameplan would be to establish the run & keep the volatile Zona offense off the field. I think they could have some success, it doesn't hurt than Berry is out. Zona has yet to see a game total go over 41 points. Throw out the SD/NYJ game & every total has been 41 or lower.

SF/NO u48

Gut feeling on this one, tough play though. The way I see it Osullivan starting on the road, the niners will be giving Gore a ton of touches. if they win top, I give them a good shot @ winning su. NO wrs are pretty banged up, & Shockey's blocking will be missed more than his offensive output imo.....


Dal/Wash u46

Divisional game that again I expect to be very run-heavy.

[Underdog88]

***Alert***


Carson Palmer will be the teams #3 qb this week vs the Browns......



Wow. Q all week & now they're sitting him? Awesome, really glad I played that Cincy team over so early. Also ecstatic that I traded Garrard/Slaton for Palmer/Maroney this week


Seeing the line drop now, 41.5 total... Could be extra value on the over though...